Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T20:38:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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D1 0xd1ee…a8ae sports 588 markets active 2h ago coverage 273d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable Fresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 273d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$29,773 (-38%) realized −$29,317 · open −$456
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate53%268W / 242L
Whale WR54%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$133per market
Trades / day12.4pace
Fees−$70est.
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$10,047now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 273d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
finance 31% −$9,771
crypto 20% −$1,253
other 19% +$1,890
sports 14% +$725
tech 12% −$1,952
economics 2% +$134
world 2% −$122
politics 0% −$13
weather 0% +$52
culture 0% −$80
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-14.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 37 -17.3% -25.2% 59% 41% -2.6%
≤30d 103 -2.2% -11.5% 65% 45% -1.6%
≤90d 209 +12.9% +2.1% 50% 35% -17.3%
all 510 -5.8% -14.7% 53% 31% -25.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover12.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.7% 31% -25.1%
10% -22.9% 21% -32.3%
15% -30.3% 17% -38.8%
20% -37.2% 12% -44.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 31% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
42% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 54% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early -18% → late +7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$48 vs −$94 · ×0.51 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.56 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

273d coverage
Net worth$10,047
Realized−$29,317
Unrealized−$456
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses268 / 242
Whale WR (big bets)54%
Est. fees paid−$70
Open positions85
Markets (closed)510 / 588
History coverage273d ⚠
Avg bet$133
Trades / day12.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 85 History 510 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $6,900 (LOW) in June? No 91¢ 97¢ $1,103 $1,171 +$67 (+6%)
SpaceX IPO: Closing Price Up/Down End of First Month? Up 77¢ 85¢ $900 $990 +$90 (+10%)
Will Anthropic flip BTC by December 31? Yes 56¢ 66¢ $567 $676 +$109 (+19%)
Will SpaceX be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $520 $554 +$34 (+6%)
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $6,000 (LOW) in June? No 99¢ 100¢ $475 $480 +$5 (+1%)
Will Ethereum dip to $1,300 in June? No 95¢ 97¢ $400 $411 +$11 (+3%)
Will New York Mets win the 2026 National League Championship Series? No 97¢ 99¢ $400 $407 +$7 (+2%)
Will Anthropic not IPO by December 31 2027? No 91¢ 90¢ $400 $394 −$6 (-1%)
Will Anthropic’s market cap be between 1.2T and 1.5T at market close on IPO day by December 31 2027? No 81¢ 82¢ $295 $298 +$4 (+1%)
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Yes 19¢ 81¢ $62 $268 +$206 (+332%)
Will Atlanta Braves win the 2026 NL East title? Yes 79¢ 76¢ $262 $254 −$8 (-3%)
Will Dylan Cease win the 2026 AL Cy Young Award? No 92¢ 78¢ $276 $235 −$41 (-15%)
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? No 33¢ 28¢ $240 $209 −$31 (-13%)
Will Detroit Tigers win the 2026 American League Championship Series? No 95¢ 98¢ $200 $205 +$5 (+2%)
Will Detroit Tigers win the 2026 AL Central title? No 86¢ 92¢ $190 $202 +$13 (+7%)
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $6,700 (LOW) in June? No 92¢ 98¢ $187 $200 +$13 (+7%)
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in June? No 95¢ 95¢ $200 $200 +$0 (+0%)
Will the New York Mets win 100 or more games during the 2026 MLB Regular Season? No 99¢ 99¢ $189 $189 −$0 (-0%)
Will Konnor Griffin win the 2026 NL Rookie of the Year award? No 96¢ 98¢ $150 $153 +$3 (+2%)
Will Jacob deGrom win the 2026 AL Cy Young Award? No 90¢ 92¢ $140 $143 +$3 (+2%)
Will 2026 be the second-hottest year on record? Yes 62¢ 69¢ $96 $107 +$11 (+11%)
Will New York Mets win the 2026 NL East title? No 97¢ 99¢ $102 $105 +$3 (+3%)
Will the Atlanta Braves win the 2026 World Series? Yes 9¢ 9¢ $105 $103 −$2 (-2%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in June? No 88¢ 98¢ $92 $103 +$11 (+12%)
Will James Wood lead the MLB in RBIs for the 2026 regular season? No 97¢ 98¢ $100 $102 +$2 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 209 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $116,000 on September 18? Jun 21 $32 −$32 -100%
No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting? Jun 21 $34 +$5 +15%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $108K on September 1? Jun 21 $110 −$110 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down on September 21? Jun 21 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Solana reach $200 in July? Jun 21 $15 −$15 -100%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2025 meeting? Jun 21 $95 +$261 +276%
Will Ethereum reach $3100 in July? Jun 21 $15 −$15 -100%
San Diego Padres vs. Texas Rangers Jun 20 $102 +$136 +134%
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-2.5) Jun 20 $20 −$20 -98%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 20 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $202 +$131 +65%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 20 $101 −$100 -99%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $702 +$84 +12%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $400 +$16 +4%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $202 +$139 +69%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 20 $23 −$23 -99%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $30 −$30 -98%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 4.5 Jun 19 $501 +$54 +11%
United States vs. Australia: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $301 +$29 +10%
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 19 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Ethereum reach $2,200 in June? Jun 19 $101 +$12 +12%
Will Aaron Judge lead the MLB in RBIs for the 2026 regular season? Jun 18 $216 +$15 +7%
No one announced as next James Bond? Jun 17 $146 +$20 +13%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Jun 17 $200 +$5 +2%
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $6,500 (LOW) in June? Jun 17 $156 +$6 +4%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $101 +$48 +48%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $302 +$78 +26%
Will Drake Baldwin lead the MLB in RBIs for the 2026 regular season? Jun 16 $100 +$3 +2%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,200 in June? Jun 16 $101 +$11 +11%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $202 +$101 +50%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $101 +$55 +55%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $30 −$30 -99%
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $6,300 (LOW) in June? Jun 15 $1,002 +$30 +3%
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 in June? Jun 14 $154 +$49 +32%
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics Jun 13 $20 +$10 +48%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? Jun 12 $301 +$24 +8%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.0T and $1.5T at market close on Jun 12 $20 −$14 -68%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? Jun 12 $306 −$98 -32%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.6T? Jun 12 $575 −$296 -51%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.8T? Jun 12 $169 −$106 -62%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T? Jun 12 $303 −$115 -38%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.2T? Jun 12 $236 +$34 +14%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.4T? Jun 12 $26 −$12 -48%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.6T? Jun 12 $80 −$63 -79%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.8T? Jun 12 $35 −$24 -67%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $4T? Jun 12 $73 −$52 -72%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 72-73°F on June 11? Jun 12 $28 +$26 +95%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $7,100 (LOW) in June? BUY No 94¢ $100 1h
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $6,900 (LOW) in June? BUY No 97¢ $100 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 76-77°F on June 21? BUY Yes 41¢ $10 3h
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem SELL Yes 3¢ $2 14h
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem SELL Yes 3¢ $2 14h
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem SELL Yes 3¢ $1 14h
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem SELL Yes 2¢ $1 14h
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-2.5) BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 42¢ $20 21h
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 71¢ $101 21h
San Diego Padres vs. Texas Rangers BUY San Diego Padres 42¢ $102 21h
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Atlanta Braves BUY Milwaukee Brewers 74¢ $101 22h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 61¢ $101 22h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 84¢ $100 22h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 60¢ $202 24h
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Atlanta Braves BUY Milwaukee Brewers 71¢ $23 44h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 47¢ $30 46h
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 96¢ $400 46h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 89¢ $401 46h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 58¢ $101 46h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 89¢ $201 2d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 89¢ $100 2d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 59¢ $101 2d
United States vs. Australia: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Under 91¢ $301 2d
United States vs. Australia: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 90¢ $501 2d
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $102 2d
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $6,900 (LOW) in June? SELL No 97¢ $28 2d
Will Ethereum reach $2,200 in June? SELL No 99¢ $43 2d
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL Yes 85¢ $43 3d
Will Aaron Judge lead the MLB in RBIs for the 2026 regular season? SELL No 100¢ $60 3d
Will Aaron Judge lead the MLB in RBIs for the 2026 regular season? SELL No 99¢ $60 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $10,046.81 · official $10,045.09 (match) · 3500 history records