Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T03:36:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
D1 0xd1ef…628a other 11 markets active 1h ago coverage 5d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ net negative once open positions are counted! high turnover
Total PnL −$299 (-3%) realized +$601 · open −$900
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR20%break-even
Win rate30%3W / 7L
Drawdown83%max
Avg bet$793per market
Trades / day11.1pace
Fees−$36est.
Kalshi-fit18%portable
Net worth$1,500now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 89% −$19
sports 11% +$288
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)+3.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 +14.2% +3.4% 30% 20% +14.5%
≤30d 10 +14.2% +3.4% 30% 20% +14.5%
≤90d 10 +14.2% +3.4% 30% 20% +14.5%
all 10 +14.2% +3.4% 30% 20% +14.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.1 tr/day
realistic slip~11%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +3.4% 20% +14.5%
10% ← realistic here -6.5% 20% +3.6%
15% -15.6% 20% -6.4%
20% -23.8% 20% -15.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 75% · top 2 94% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +20% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +14% · $-wt +20% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$861 vs −$202 · ×4.26 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.83 per $1 lost it wins $1.83
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage
Net worth$1,500
Realized+$601
Unrealized−$900
Win rate (resolved)30%
Wins / losses3 / 7
Est. fees paid−$36
Open positions1
Markets (closed)10 / 11
History coverage5d
Avg bet$793
Trades / day11.1
Drawdown83%
Kalshi-fit18%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 10 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Algeria leading at halftime? Yes 48¢ 30¢ $2,400 $1,500 −$900 (-38%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $2,245 +$152 +7%
Exact Score: Norway 1 - 1 Senegal? Jun 23 $185 −$180 -98%
Exact Score: France 3 - 0 Iraq? Jun 23 $599 +$1,927 +322%
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? Jun 22 $718 −$215 -30%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $103 −$29 -28%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $855 −$20 -2%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $836 −$676 -81%
Exact Score: England 2 - 1 Croatia? Jun 17 $245 −$56 -23%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $255 +$503 +197%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $244 −$237 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Algeria leading at halftime? BUY Yes 48¢ $2,437 1h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 100¢ $2,398 1h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 93¢ $2,148 1h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 94¢ $98 1h
Exact Score: Norway 1 - 1 Senegal? BUY Yes 18¢ $185 2h
Exact Score: France 3 - 0 Iraq? SELL Yes 95¢ $5 2h
Exact Score: France 3 - 0 Iraq? SELL Yes 95¢ $337 2h
Exact Score: France 3 - 0 Iraq? SELL Yes 95¢ $57 2h
Exact Score: France 3 - 0 Iraq? SELL Yes 95¢ $20 2h
Exact Score: France 3 - 0 Iraq? SELL Yes 95¢ $97 2h
Exact Score: France 3 - 0 Iraq? SELL Yes 95¢ $49 2h
Exact Score: France 3 - 0 Iraq? SELL Yes 95¢ $5 2h
Exact Score: France 3 - 0 Iraq? SELL Yes 95¢ $65 2h
Exact Score: France 3 - 0 Iraq? SELL Yes 95¢ $15 2h
Exact Score: France 3 - 0 Iraq? SELL Yes 95¢ $5 2h
Exact Score: France 3 - 0 Iraq? SELL Yes 95¢ $92 2h
Exact Score: France 3 - 0 Iraq? SELL Yes 95¢ $69 2h
Exact Score: France 3 - 0 Iraq? SELL Yes 95¢ $245 2h
Exact Score: France 3 - 0 Iraq? SELL Yes 95¢ $111 2h
Exact Score: France 3 - 0 Iraq? SELL Yes 90¢ $368 2h
Exact Score: France 3 - 0 Iraq? SELL Yes 76¢ $413 2h
Exact Score: France 3 - 0 Iraq? SELL Yes 32¢ $134 3h
Exact Score: France 3 - 0 Iraq? SELL Yes 32¢ $100 3h
Exact Score: France 3 - 0 Iraq? SELL Yes 35¢ $4 3h
Exact Score: France 3 - 0 Iraq? SELL Yes 35¢ $5 3h
Exact Score: France 3 - 0 Iraq? SELL Yes 35¢ $13 3h
Exact Score: France 3 - 0 Iraq? SELL Yes 35¢ $4 3h
Exact Score: France 3 - 0 Iraq? SELL Yes 35¢ $4 3h
Exact Score: France 3 - 0 Iraq? SELL Yes 35¢ $9 3h
Exact Score: France 3 - 0 Iraq? SELL Yes 35¢ $7 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,500.00 · official $1,675.00 · 60 history records