Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T23:55:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
D1 0xd1f0…0b5d crypto 11 markets active 2h ago coverage 105d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$353 (-21%) realized −$326 · open −$27
Gross ROI / mkt -24% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -31% what you keep after slip
Net edge-31%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate50%5W / 5L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$151per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$58now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 105d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 37% −$15
world 33% −$377
sports 19% +$110
culture 6% −$97
crypto 5% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-31.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -15.5% -23.5% 56% 44% -25.7%
≤30d 9 -15.5% -23.5% 56% 44% -25.7%
≤90d 9 -15.5% -23.5% 56% 44% -25.7%
all 10 -23.8% -31.1% 50% 40% -30.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -31.1% 40% -30.3%
10% -37.7% 40% -36.9%
15% -43.7% 20% -43.0%
20% -49.2% 10% -48.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 51% · top 2 74% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -18% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -24% · $-wt -23% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$55 vs −$127 · ×0.43 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.43 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

105d coverage
Net worth$58
Realized−$326
Unrealized−$27
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses5 / 5
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)10 / 11
History coverage105d
Avg bet$151
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 10 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Scottie Scheffler win the 2026 Travelers Championship? Yes 85¢ 58¢ $85 $58 −$27 (-32%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
South Africa vs. Canada: South Africa O/U 0.5 Jun 28 $210 +$62 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 28 $5 −$4 -80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 28 $26 +$20 +79%
T20 Series Ireland vs India: Ireland vs India Jun 28 $101 +$48 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 28 $25 +$2 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 28 $31 −$29 -92%
Exact Score: Jordan 1 - 3 Argentina? Jun 28 $403 +$141 +35%
Will Jason Day win the 2026 Masters tournament? Jun 28 $129 −$129 -100%
Will Iran advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 28 $545 −$377 -69%
Will Leonardo DiCaprio win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards? Mar 16 $98 −$97 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Scottie Scheffler win the 2026 Travelers Championship? BUY Yes 85¢ $85 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET SELL Down 10¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Down 44¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $26 3h
South Africa vs. Canada: South Africa O/U 0.5 BUY Under 78¢ $1 3h
South Africa vs. Canada: South Africa O/U 0.5 BUY Under 78¢ $108 3h
South Africa vs. Canada: South Africa O/U 0.5 BUY Under 76¢ $101 3h
T20 Series Ireland vs India: Ireland vs India BUY Ireland 67¢ $101 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $25 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET SELL Down $0 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET SELL Down $2 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Down 41¢ $5 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Down 42¢ $26 8h
Exact Score: Jordan 1 - 3 Argentina? BUY Yes 74¢ $403 20h
Will Iran advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 10¢ $5 20h
Will Iran advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 10¢ $5 20h
Will Iran advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 13¢ $4 20h
Will Iran advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 15¢ $7 20h
Will Iran advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 23¢ $14 20h
Will Iran advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 30¢ $9 20h
Will Iran advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 30¢ $15 20h
Will Iran advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 31¢ $32 20h
Will Iran advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 54¢ $18 22h
Will Iran advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 54¢ $11 22h
Will Iran advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 54¢ $39 22h
Will Iran advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 54¢ $11 22h
Will Iran advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 97¢ $400 22h
Will Iran advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 88¢ $145 23h
Will Jason Day win the 2026 Masters tournament? BUY Yes $129 77d
Will Leonardo DiCaprio win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards? SELL Yes $0 104d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $58.00 · official $59.00 · 44 history records