Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T21:39:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
D1 0xd1f1…3fd9 sports 112 markets active 2h ago coverage 83d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$815 (-10%) realized −$815 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate46%51W / 61L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$76per market
Trades / day1.4pace
Fees−$99est.
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$579
7 days+$529
14 days+$529
30 days+$529
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 84% −$864
other 16% +$558
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-12.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -21.2% -28.7% 50% 50% +35.8%
≤30d 2 -21.2% -28.7% 50% 50% +35.8%
≤90d 112 -3.6% -12.8% 46% 46% -12.8%
all 112 -3.6% -12.8% 46% 46% -12.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.8% 46% -12.8%
10% -21.1% 46% -21.1%
15% -28.7% 42% -28.7%
20% -35.7% 39% -35.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 20% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +12% → late -19% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$76 vs −$69 · ×1.11 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.93 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

83d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$815
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses51 / 61
Est. fees paid−$99
Open positions0
Markets (closed)112 / 112
History coverage83d
Avg bet$76
Trades / day1.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 112 Trades
no open positions (3 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $1,006 +$579 +58%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $51 −$50 -99%
Spread: Rockets (-4.5) Apr 16 $196 −$193 -99%
United States vs. Belgium: O/U 4.5 Apr 08 $50 −$50 -100%
Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-1.5) Apr 07 $200 −$200 -100%
Lightning vs. Sabres: O/U 7.5 Apr 07 $200 +$74 +37%
Spread: Lightning (-1.5) Apr 07 $200 +$79 +40%
Spread: Kansas City Royals (-1.5) Apr 07 $200 −$200 -100%
Spread: Minnesota Twins (-1.5) Apr 07 $225 −$225 -100%
Spread: 76ers (-15.5) Apr 06 $47 +$41 +85%
LoL: Unicorns Of Love Sexy Edition vs BIG (BO1) - Prime League 1st Div Apr 06 $50 +$23 +46%
Valorant: Fnatic vs ULF Esports - Map 1 Winner Apr 06 $48 −$48 -100%
Timberwolves vs. Pistons Apr 06 $50 −$50 -100%
Magic vs. Pelicans Apr 06 $201 +$105 +52%
Seattle Mariners vs. Los Angeles Angels Apr 06 $200 −$200 -100%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner Apr 05 $100 +$57 +57%
Pistons vs. 76ers Apr 05 $100 +$97 +97%
Counter-Strike: FaZe vs EYEBALLERS - Map 2 Winner Apr 04 $100 +$26 +26%
Houston Astros vs. Athletics Apr 04 $100 −$100 -100%
Counter-Strike: SemperFi Esports vs Rare Atom (BO3) - GangKui Cup Play Apr 04 $100 +$97 +97%
Spread: Pelicans (-5.5) Apr 04 $100 +$101 +101%
Celtics vs. Bucks: O/U 218.5 Apr 04 $100 −$100 -100%
Bulls vs. Knicks: O/U 236.5 Apr 04 $100 +$97 +97%
Spread: 76ers (-3.5) Apr 04 $100 −$100 -100%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Minnesota Twins Apr 04 $100 +$97 +97%
Timberwolves vs. 76ers Apr 04 $100 −$100 -100%
Spread: Paris Saint-Germain FC (-2.5) Apr 04 $100 −$100 -100%
Spread: 76ers (-4.5) Apr 04 $100 −$100 -100%
Magic vs. Mavericks: O/U 237.5 Apr 04 $100 −$100 -100%
US Men's Clay Court Championships: Alex Michelsen vs Alexei Popyrin Apr 03 $50 −$50 -100%
Pelicans vs. Trail Blazers Apr 03 $50 −$50 -100%
Cavaliers vs. Warriors: O/U 229.5 Apr 03 $50 +$49 +97%
Spread: Clippers (-1.5) Apr 03 $50 −$50 -100%
Spread: Cavaliers (-10.5) Apr 03 $50 −$50 -100%
Flames vs. Golden Knights Apr 03 $50 −$50 -100%
Spurs vs. Clippers: O/U 230.5 Apr 03 $50 −$50 -100%
Spurs vs. Clippers: O/U 231.5 Apr 03 $50 −$50 -100%
Victor Wembanyama: Rebounds O/U 11.5 Apr 03 $50 −$50 -100%
Lakers vs. Thunder: O/U 232.5 Apr 03 $50 +$48 +97%
Cavaliers vs. Warriors Apr 03 $50 +$12 +24%
Luka Dončić: Points O/U 32.5 Apr 03 $50 +$48 +97%
Spread: Hornets (-6.5) Apr 03 $50 +$59 +119%
Spread: Pistons (-3.5) Apr 03 $50 +$48 +97%
Canucks vs. Wild: O/U 6.5 Apr 03 $50 +$50 +100%
LoL: GOAL vs Team Paradox - Game 1 Winner Apr 03 $50 −$50 -100%
Will SD Eibar win on 2026-04-02? Apr 03 $50 +$111 +223%
New Mexico Lobos vs. Tulsa Golden Hurricane: O/U 160.5 Apr 03 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Sydney FC win on 2026-04-02? Apr 02 $50 −$50 -100%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Apr 02 $50 −$50 -100%
Ryan Rollins: Points O/U 18.5 Apr 02 $50 +$12 +24%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 96¢ $1,584 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 60¢ $995 3h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 60¢ $10 3h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 66¢ $51 4d
Spread: Rockets (-4.5) BUY Rockets 55¢ $196 64d
Lightning vs. Sabres: O/U 7.5 BUY Under 73¢ $200 74d
Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-1.5) BUY Miami Marlins 67¢ $200 74d
Spread: Kansas City Royals (-1.5) BUY Cleveland Guardians 67¢ $200 74d
Spread: Minnesota Twins (-1.5) BUY Detroit Tigers 67¢ $200 74d
Spread: Lightning (-1.5) BUY Sabres 71¢ $200 74d
Spread: Minnesota Twins (-1.5) BUY Detroit Tigers 67¢ $25 74d
Magic vs. Pelicans BUY Magic 65¢ $201 75d
Seattle Mariners vs. Los Angeles Angels BUY Seattle Mariners 61¢ $200 75d
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner BUY PARIVISION 63¢ $100 76d
Houston Astros vs. Athletics BUY Houston Astros 50¢ $100 76d
Counter-Strike: SemperFi Esports vs Rare Atom (BO3) - GangKui Cup Play BUY Rare Atom 50¢ $100 76d
Pistons vs. 76ers BUY Pistons 50¢ $100 76d
Celtics vs. Bucks: O/U 218.5 BUY Under 44¢ $100 76d
Bulls vs. Knicks: O/U 236.5 BUY Under 50¢ $100 76d
Spread: 76ers (-3.5) BUY Timberwolves 45¢ $100 76d
Counter-Strike: FaZe vs EYEBALLERS - Map 2 Winner BUY EYEBALLERS 39¢ $100 76d
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Minnesota Twins BUY Minnesota Twins 50¢ $100 77d
Spread: Pelicans (-5.5) BUY Kings 49¢ $100 77d
Timberwolves vs. 76ers BUY Timberwolves 40¢ $100 77d
Spread: Paris Saint-Germain FC (-2.5) BUY Paris Saint-Germain FC 32¢ $100 77d
Spread: 76ers (-4.5) BUY Timberwolves 50¢ $100 77d
Magic vs. Mavericks: O/U 237.5 BUY Under 50¢ $100 77d
US Men's Clay Court Championships: Alex Michelsen vs Alexei Popyrin BUY Alex Michelsen 22¢ $50 77d
Spread: Clippers (-1.5) BUY Clippers 50¢ $50 77d
Pelicans vs. Trail Blazers BUY Pelicans 25¢ $50 77d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 362 history records