Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T09:15:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
D1 0xd1f6…7f2d other 20 markets active 2h ago coverage 30d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$9 (+0%) realized +$10 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR56%break-even
Win rate62%10W / 6L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$109per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Kalshi-fit15%portable
Net worth$200now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$26
7 days−$181
14 days+$47
30 days−$33
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 88% −$58
crypto 12% +$24
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +56%
net ROI/market (all)-21.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 -22.6% -29.9% 55% 55% -21.8%
≤30d 16 -13.5% -21.7% 62% 56% -11.0%
≤90d 16 -13.5% -21.7% 62% 56% -11.0%
all 16 -13.5% -21.7% 62% 56% -11.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -21.7% 56% -11.0%
10% -29.2% 31% -19.5%
15% -36.1% 12% -27.3%
20% -42.3% 12% -34.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 38% · top 2 64% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +8% → late -35% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$40 vs −$73 · ×0.56 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.93 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

30d coverage
Net worth$200
Realized+$10
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses10 / 6
Open positions4
Markets (closed)16 / 20
History coverage30d
Avg bet$109
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit15%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 16 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? Yes 73¢ 72¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? Yes 58¢ 57¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-29? Yes 43¢ 42¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-1%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 23¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+37%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will England win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $20 +$4 +17%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $31 −$30 -98%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $203 +$25 +12%
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $46 +$8 +18%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $131 −$128 -98%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $18 +$13 +72%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $117 +$22 +19%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $334 +$104 +31%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $290 −$48 -16%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $266 +$154 +58%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $204 +$70 +35%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 18 $81 +$4 +5%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 12 $82 −$80 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 02 $1 $0 +35%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 43¢ $51 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 73¢ $102 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 58¢ $51 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 52¢ $31 34h
Will England win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 84¢ $20 35h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 50¢ $51 3d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 64¢ $29 3d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 84¢ $46 4d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 57¢ $102 4d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 88¢ $203 4d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 57¢ $18 4d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 55¢ $102 4d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 83¢ $117 4d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 75¢ $334 4d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 9¢ $243 4d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 10¢ $290 4d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 62¢ $266 11d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 73¢ $204 11d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 60¢ $82 16d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 94¢ $81 16d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 27d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Up 72¢ $1 30d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $199.67 · official $199.67 (match) · 32 history records