Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T20:47:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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D1 0xd1f7…99cc crypto 613 markets active 1h ago coverage 21d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$64 (+1%) realized +$65 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate97%594W / 16L
Drawdown90%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day31.2pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$47now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$20
7 days+$15
14 days+$16
30 days+$50
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 94% +$35
other 2% +$3
politics 2% +$7
finance 2% +$2
sports 0% +$2
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-9.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 277 +0.1% -9.4% 97% 0% -9.2%
≤30d 610 +0.5% -9.0% 97% 1% -9.0%
≤90d 610 +0.5% -9.0% 97% 1% -9.0%
all 610 +0.5% -9.0% 97% 1% -9.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover31.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.0% 1% -9.0%
10% ← realistic here -17.7% 0% -17.7%
15% -25.7% 0% -25.7%
20% -33.0% 0% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
97% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$14 · ×0.03 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.23 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

21d coverage
Net worth$47
Realized+$65
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)97%
Wins / losses594 / 16
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions3
Markets (closed)610 / 613
History coverage21d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day31.2
Drawdown90%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 610 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Darializa Avila Chevalier win the NY-13 Democratic Primary by 5–10%? No 99¢ 93¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-6%)
Fed rate cut by July 2026 meeting? No 99¢ 99¢ $15 $15 −$0 (-0%)
Will Antonio Reynoso win the NY-07 Democratic Primary by 5% or more? No 98¢ 100¢ $14 $14 +$0 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 16 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 26 $15 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3PM ET Jun 26 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET Jun 26 $14 +$1 +4%
Solana Up or Down - June 26, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET Jun 26 $15 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 26, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 26 $15 $0 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jun 26 $15 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jun 26 $15 $0 +2%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,500 and $1,600 on June 26? Jun 26 $15 $0 +2%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,600 and $1,700 on June 26? Jun 26 $15 $0 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 26? Jun 26 $20 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 26, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 26 $14 +$1 +6%
XRP Up or Down - June 26, 1PM ET Jun 26 $10 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 1PM ET Jun 26 $9 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 26 $15 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 26 $15 $0 +2%
Solana Up or Down - June 26, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jun 26 $15 +$1 +8%
Solana Up or Down - June 26, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 26 $15 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 26 $14 +$1 +6%
XRP Up or Down - June 26, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 26 $13 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 26 $15 $0 +2%
XRP Up or Down - June 26, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 26 $15 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 26 $15 $0 +1%
Will the price of Solana be between $60 and $70 on June 26? Jun 26 $13 +$2 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 26? Jun 26 $19 +$1 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down on June 26? Jun 26 $19 +$1 +4%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 26 $15 $0 +3%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 26? Jun 26 $20 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 26? Jun 26 $20 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 26, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET Jun 26 $15 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET Jun 26 $15 $0 +2%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET Jun 26 $14 +$1 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 26 $14 +$1 +5%
Solana Up or Down - June 26, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 26 $15 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 26 $14 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10AM ET Jun 26 $10 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 26 $14 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 26 $5 $0 +2%
Solana Up or Down - June 26, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 26 $5 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 26, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 26 $14 +$1 +5%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 26 $15 $0 +3%
Solana Up or Down - June 26, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 26 $15 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 26 $15 $0 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 26 $14 +$1 +4%
Solana Up or Down - June 26, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 26 $15 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 26 $15 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 26, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 26 $14 +$1 +5%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 26 $15 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 26 $15 $0 +3%
Solana Up or Down - June 26, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET Jun 26 $15 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET Jun 26 $15 +$1 +7%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $15 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $10 53m
Solana Up or Down - June 26, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $15 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 26, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $15 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $14 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $15 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $15 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 26, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $14 2h
XRP Up or Down - June 26, 1PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $10 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 1PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $9 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $15 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $15 3h
Solana Up or Down - June 26, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET BUY Down 92¢ $15 3h
XRP Up or Down - June 26, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $13 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $14 4h
Solana Up or Down - June 26, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $15 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $15 4h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $15 4h
XRP Up or Down - June 26, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $15 4h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $15 4h
Ethereum Up or Down on June 26? BUY Up 96¢ $19 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 26? BUY Up 96¢ $19 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $14 5h
Solana Up or Down - June 26, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $15 5h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $14 5h
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,500 and $1,600 on June 26? BUY Yes 98¢ $15 5h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $14 5h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $15 5h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 26? BUY No 99¢ $20 5h
Will the price of Solana be between $60 and $70 on June 26? BUY No 86¢ $13 5h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $47.41 · official $47.41 (match) · 1236 history records