Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T21:34:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
D1 0xd1f7…6a03 crypto 165 markets active 1h ago coverage 320d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$97 (+0%) realized +$147 · open −$50
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate50%82W / 81L
Whale WR50%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$123per market
Trades / day1.2pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$57
7 days−$63
14 days−$63
30 days−$63
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 52% −$718
other 48% +$801
sports 0% −$60
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-10.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 26 -5.9% -14.8% 50% 27% -24.3%
≤30d 26 -5.9% -14.8% 50% 27% -24.3%
≤90d 26 -5.9% -14.8% 50% 27% -24.3%
all 163 -0.8% -10.3% 50% 41% -9.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.3% 41% -9.2%
10% -18.8% 33% -17.9%
15% -26.7% 27% -25.8%
20% -33.9% 23% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 45% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -16% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 50% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early +4% → late -6% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$59 vs −$59 · ×1.0 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.02 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

320d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$147
Unrealized−$50
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses82 / 81
Whale WR (big bets)50%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)163 / 165
History coverage320d
Avg bet$123
Trades / day1.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 163 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Under 53¢ 0¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 12 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $10 +$2 +18%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Austria 3 - 1 Jordan? Jun 17 $20 +$65 +319%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 13 $5 +$3 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 13 $4 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 13 $4 +$4 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 13 $2 +$1 +69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 13 $2 $0 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 13 $2 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 13 $2 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 13 $101 +$1 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 13 $1 +$1 +140%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 12 $106 −$94 -89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 12 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 12 $26 +$1 +3%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $31 −$30 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 12 $26 +$10 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 9, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jan 09 $28 −$28 -98%
Solana Up or Down - January 9, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jan 09 $17 −$17 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 9, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jan 09 $40 −$20 -50%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 9, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jan 09 $52 +$3 +5%
Will Elon Musk be named in newly released Epstein files? Dec 24 $17 −$17 -100%
Will Stephen Colbert be named in newly released Epstein files? Dec 24 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 23, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Dec 23 $51 −$50 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 23, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Dec 23 $5 −$1 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 23, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Dec 23 $42 +$10 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 23, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Dec 23 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 28, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Sep 28 $20 −$9 -45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 28, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Sep 28 $20 +$5 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 28, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Sep 28 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 28, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Sep 28 $20 +$9 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 27, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Sep 28 $58 −$10 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 27, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Sep 28 $40 −$5 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 27, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Sep 27 $20 +$11 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 26, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Sep 26 $10 +$8 +77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 26, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Sep 26 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 26, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Sep 26 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 26, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Sep 26 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 26, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Sep 26 $30 +$23 +78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 26, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Sep 26 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 25, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Sep 25 $20 +$35 +175%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 53¢ $51 1h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 9¢ $0 3h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 11¢ $12 3h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 9¢ $10 3h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 21¢ $10 4h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND BUY 3¢ $10 5h
Exact Score: Austria 3 - 1 Jordan? SELL Yes 99¢ $86 15h
Exact Score: Austria 3 - 1 Jordan? BUY Yes 26¢ $10 15h
Exact Score: Austria 3 - 1 Jordan? BUY Yes 21¢ $10 15h
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 5¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET SELL Up 54¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET SELL Up 3¢ $0 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Up 32¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Down 64¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET SELL Up 75¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET SELL Up 46¢ $4 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $4 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $4 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET SELL Down 60¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Down 43¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Down 63¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Up 31¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $1 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.05 · official $0.05 (match) · 468 history records