Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T12:18:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D1 0xd1f8…c1b9 other 153 markets active 2h ago coverage 170d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$36 (-0%) realized −$36 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate16%25W / 128L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$159per market
Trades / day3.4pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 29% −$11
other 25% −$7
politics 23% −$12
crypto 10% −$1
culture 4% −$1
economics 4% −$1
tech 3% −$1
world 2% −$1
finance 1% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.3% -9.8% 0% 0% -9.8%
≤30d 3 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 25 -0.2% -9.7% 28% 0% -9.6%
all 153 -0.1% -9.6% 16% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 35% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +0% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.9 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.24 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

170d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$36
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)16%
Wins / losses25 / 128
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)153 / 153
History coverage170d
Avg bet$159
Trades / day3.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 153 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Gabriel Attal win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 28 $86 $0 -0%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 15 $50 $0 -0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 01 $379 $0 -0%
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 23 $55 $0 -0%
Will the Atlanta Braves win the 2026 World Series? Apr 10 $229 $0 -0%
Will Greece win Eurovision 2026? Apr 09 $45 $0 +0%
Will the Vegas Golden Knights win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Apr 09 $90 −$1 -1%
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in April? Apr 09 $126 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in April? Apr 09 $165 $0 -0%
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Apr 08 $48 $0 -0%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 08 $61 $0 -0%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 07 $222 $0 -0%
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Apr 07 $442 +$2 +0%
Will Jon Rahm win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 06 $43 $0 -0%
Will Justin Rose win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 06 $204 −$1 -0%
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Apr 03 $210 $0 +0%
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 02 $60 $0 -1%
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? Apr 02 $42 $0 -1%
Will the Pittsburgh Penguins win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Apr 01 $55 −$1 -2%
Will Bruno Retailleau win the 2027 French presidential election? Mar 31 $61 $0 +0%
Netanyahu out by April 30? Mar 31 $360 +$1 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Mar 31 $838 −$1 -0%
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Mar 31 $491 −$1 -0%
Will Luka Doncic win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Mar 30 $234 +$1 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in March? Mar 30 $151 +$1 +1%
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? Mar 29 $303 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 28 $768 $0 -0%
Will the Anaheim Ducks win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Mar 28 $151 $0 -0%
Will Ukraine win Eurovision 2026? Mar 28 $150 $0 +0%
Will Raphaël Glucksmann win the 2027 French presidential election? Mar 26 $303 $0 -0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of March? Mar 26 $152 −$2 -2%
Will Nikola Jokic win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Mar 26 $151 $0 +0%
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? Mar 25 $314 −$1 -0%
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 25 $215 $0 -0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 22 $479 −$2 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 m Mar 22 $157 $0 -0%
Will Brooks Koepka win the 2026 Masters tournament? Mar 22 $151 $0 +0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 21 $322 $0 -0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 21 $335 −$1 -0%
Will Sweden win Eurovision 2026? Mar 20 $155 +$1 +0%
Will Hideki Matsuyama win the 2026 Masters tournament? Mar 20 $159 −$1 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 20 $149 $0 -0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $65 by end of March? Mar 20 $29 $0 +0%
Will Cameron Young win the 2026 Masters tournament? Mar 19 $160 $0 -0%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 19 $706 −$1 -0%
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 19 $153 $0 -0%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 18 $159 $0 -0%
Netanyahu out by March 31? Mar 18 $152 $0 +0%
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Mar 18 $565 $0 -0%
Will Australia win Eurovision 2026? Mar 18 $153 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Gabriel Attal win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 96¢ $38 1h
Will Gabriel Attal win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 96¢ $38 6h
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 98¢ $50 12d
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 98¢ $50 12d
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 94¢ $59 27d
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 95¢ $59 28d
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Men's French Open? SELL No 93¢ $55 35d
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Men's French Open? BUY No 93¢ $55 36d
Will Gabriel Attal win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 97¢ $47 43d
Will Gabriel Attal win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 97¢ $47 44d
Will the Atlanta Braves win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 95¢ $46 79d
Will the Atlanta Braves win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 96¢ $46 79d
Will Greece win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 94¢ $45 79d
Will Greece win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 94¢ $45 79d
Will the Vegas Golden Knights win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? SELL No 94¢ $63 79d
Will the Vegas Golden Knights win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? BUY No 94¢ $64 80d
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in April? SELL No 98¢ $60 80d
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in April? BUY No 97¢ $60 80d
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in April? SELL No 93¢ $52 80d
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in April? BUY No 93¢ $53 80d
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 92¢ $48 80d
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 92¢ $39 81d
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 92¢ $9 81d
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 94¢ $61 81d
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 95¢ $61 81d
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in April? SELL No 97¢ $66 81d
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in April? BUY No 97¢ $18 81d
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in April? BUY No 97¢ $48 81d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 96¢ $53 81d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 96¢ $53 81d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 657 history records