Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T00:46:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D1 0xd1fc…2230 weather 1278 markets active 2h ago coverage 112d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$1,007 (-1%) realized −$995 · open −$12
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate94%1196W / 80L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$149per market
Trades / day20.7pace
Fees−$66est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$322now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$160
7 days−$351
14 days−$585
30 days−$373
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 74% −$218
sports 15% −$971
crypto 10% +$245
other 1% −$386
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-10.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 64 -3.1% -12.4% 91% 3% -12.0%
≤30d 299 -0.3% -9.8% 94% 8% -10.2%
≤90d 1091 -0.8% -10.2% 94% 6% -10.3%
all 1276 -0.7% -10.2% 94% 7% -10.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover20.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.2% 7% -10.1%
10% ← realistic here -18.8% 1% -18.7%
15% -26.6% 0% -26.6%
20% -33.8% 0% -33.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
92% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$114 · ×0.06 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.86 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

112d coverage
Net worth$322
Realized−$995
Unrealized−$12
Win rate (resolved)94%
Wins / losses1196 / 80
Est. fees paid−$66
Open positions2
Markets (closed)1276 / 1278
History coverage112d
Avg bet$149
Trades / day20.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 1276 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 0.5 Over 92¢ 90¢ $200 $197 −$3 (-2%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 19? No 88¢ 82¢ $134 $126 −$8 (-6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 23 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 18? Jun 17 $160 −$160 -100%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $200 −$200 -100%
Nottingham Open: Viktorija Golubic vs Sofia Kenin Jun 16 $247 +$155 +63%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 24°C on June 16? Jun 16 $201 −$1 -1%
HSBC Championships: Ignacio Buse vs Marcos Giron Jun 16 $202 −$200 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 33°C on June 16? Jun 16 $201 +$9 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 29°C on June 16? Jun 16 $199 +$7 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 33°C on June 16? Jun 16 $200 +$8 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 23°C on June 16? Jun 16 $220 +$6 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 78-79°F on June 15? Jun 15 $165 +$4 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 86-87°F on June 15? Jun 15 $210 +$5 +2%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $200 +$4 +2%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 5.5 Jun 15 $210 +$14 +7%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $200 +$14 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 19°C on June 15? Jun 15 $201 +$14 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 19°C on June 15? Jun 15 $190 +$5 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on June 15? Jun 15 $200 −$197 -98%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $200 −$200 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 29°C or below on June 15? Jun 15 $200 +$4 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 23°C on June 15? Jun 15 $151 +$10 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 33°C on June 15? Jun 15 $200 +$6 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 27°C on June 15? Jun 15 $200 +$5 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 76-77°F on June 14? Jun 15 $200 +$8 +4%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $110 +$11 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 68-69°F on June 14? Jun 14 $200 +$5 +2%
Málaga CF vs. UD Almería: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $200 +$5 +2%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 5.5 Jun 14 $200 +$8 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on June 14? Jun 14 $200 +$6 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on June 14? Jun 14 $200 +$7 +3%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $266 +$18 +7%
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 14? Jun 14 $200 +$7 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 19°C on June 14? Jun 14 $171 +$10 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 14? Jun 14 $200 +$5 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 30°C on June 14? Jun 14 $201 +$16 +8%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 5.5 Jun 14 $220 +$6 +3%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $200 +$8 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 96-97°F on June 13? Jun 14 $200 +$3 +2%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 5.5 Jun 14 $200 +$8 +4%
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 13? Jun 13 $151 +$10 +7%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $200 +$17 +8%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 69°F or below on June Jun 13 $201 +$11 +6%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $200 +$8 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 29°C on June 13? Jun 13 $200 +$3 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 30°C on June 13? Jun 13 $200 +$5 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 27°C on June 13? Jun 13 $150 +$5 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C on June 13? Jun 13 $200 +$4 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 13? Jun 13 $200 +$8 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 28°C on June 13? Jun 13 $200 +$9 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 27°C on June 13? Jun 13 $151 +$10 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 25°C on June 13? Jun 13 $220 +$6 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 92¢ $200 1h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 19? BUY No 88¢ $135 1h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 18? BUY No 96¢ $160 25h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 95¢ $200 2d
Nottingham Open: Viktorija Golubic vs Sofia Kenin BUY Viktorija Golubic 61¢ $247 2d
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 24°C on June 16? SELL No 94¢ $199 2d
HSBC Championships: Ignacio Buse vs Marcos Giron BUY Marcos Giron 69¢ $202 2d
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 33°C on June 16? SELL No 99¢ $209 2d
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 24°C on June 16? BUY No 94¢ $201 2d
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 33°C on June 16? BUY No 95¢ $201 2d
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 29°C on June 16? SELL No 100¢ $206 2d
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 33°C on June 16? SELL No 100¢ $208 2d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 23°C on June 16? SELL No 100¢ $226 2d
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 29°C on June 16? BUY No 96¢ $199 3d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 23°C on June 16? BUY No 97¢ $220 3d
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 33°C on June 16? BUY No 96¢ $200 3d
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 78-79°F on June 15? SELL No 100¢ $169 3d
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 86-87°F on June 15? SELL No 100¢ $215 3d
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 100¢ $204 3d
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 98¢ $200 3d
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 5.5 SELL Under 100¢ $224 3d
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 93¢ $210 3d
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $214 3d
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 86-87°F on June 15? BUY No 98¢ $210 3d
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 93¢ $200 3d
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 19°C on June 15? SELL No 100¢ $214 3d
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 19°C on June 15? SELL No 100¢ $195 3d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on June 15? SELL No 2¢ $3 3d
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 78-79°F on June 15? BUY No 97¢ $165 3d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 93¢ $200 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $322.29 · official $322.29 (match) · 2710 history records