Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T16:48:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D1 0xd1fe…e21f sports 83 markets active 0h ago coverage 116d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$576 (-7%) realized −$400 · open −$176
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate46%36W / 43L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$103per market
Trades / day1.7pace
Fees−$76est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$13now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$140
7 days−$241
14 days−$817
30 days−$817
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% −$855
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-20.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 29 -8.0% -16.7% 45% 41% -20.7%
≤30d 46 -23.1% -30.5% 37% 35% -29.5%
≤90d 53 -26.4% -33.4% 36% 34% -26.9%
all 79 -12.4% -20.8% 46% 44% -17.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.8% 44% -17.2%
10% -28.4% 39% -25.1%
15% -35.3% 33% -32.3%
20% -41.6% 24% -39.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 21% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -19% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -21% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$68 vs −$73 · ×0.94 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.78 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

116d coverage
Net worth$13
Realized−$400
Unrealized−$176
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses36 / 43
Est. fees paid−$76
Open positions3
Markets (closed)79 / 83
History coverage116d
Avg bet$103
Trades / day1.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 79 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Dota 2: Lindorfitos vs x5 Gaming (BO3) - The International South America Closed Qualifier Playoffs x5 Gaming 52¢ 29¢ $23 $13 −$10 (-44%)
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Spirit Academy - Game 1 Winner Spirit Academy 24¢ 0¢ $72 $0 −$72 (-100%)
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 1 Winner Solary 44¢ 0¢ $94 $0 −$94 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 35 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $11 +$21 +194%
Dota 2: Lindorfitos vs x5 Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $39 +$51 +128%
Counter-Strike: Bebop vs RUSTEC (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Sta Jun 15 $140 −$2 -1%
Dota 2: summer bear vs Hive - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $121 −$16 -13%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $57 −$56 -98%
Counter-Strike: ex-RUBY vs INOX Division (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Jun 14 $40 +$30 +75%
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - European Pro League Ser Jun 14 $32 +$46 +143%
LoL: RED Canids vs LOS - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $58 −$58 -100%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $202 +$123 +61%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 4 Winner Jun 13 $141 −$35 -25%
Counter-Strike: F5 Esports vs Wanted Goons (BO3) - NSTLGA League Playo Jun 13 $38 +$28 +72%
Counter-Strike: Festina Lente vs Detonate (BO3) - NSTLGA League Playof Jun 13 $7 −$6 -98%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $61 +$77 +126%
Counter-Strike: Gatorian vs Nexus (BO1) - ROG Journey Group B Jun 12 $33 −$32 -98%
LoL: Eintracht Spandau vs Anubis Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 12 $7 +$3 +40%
Valorant: Team Heretics vs Team Vitality - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $53 +$51 +97%
Counter-Strike: Washed vs STATE (BO3) - Dust2.dk Ligaen Group A Jun 12 $81 −$80 -99%
LoL: Misa Esports vs E WIE EINFACH E-SPORTS - Game 2 Winner Jun 12 $75 +$30 +40%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $47 −$46 -98%
Counter-Strike: Eternal Fire Academy vs WRAITH PCIFIC (BO3) - TESFED L Jun 12 $70 −$69 -99%
Counter-Strike: OLDBOYS- vs Donstu Esports (BO3) - ESEA Advanced Europ Jun 12 $2 −$2 -98%
Valorant: Team Heretics vs Team Vitality - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $20 −$20 -98%
LoL: LOUD vs LOS - Game 1 Winner Jun 12 $103 +$1 +1%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs HEROIC Academy (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Jun 12 $6 +$7 +134%
LoL: Misa Esports vs UCAM Esports Club - Game 2 Winner Jun 11 $57 −$56 -99%
Counter-Strike: AM Gaming vs CYBERSHOKE Esports (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Jun 11 $34 −$33 -98%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $424 −$420 -99%
Counter-Strike: MANA eSports vs Oxuji Esports (BO3) - European Pro Lea Jun 09 $81 −$81 -100%
Counter-Strike: Ursa vs RUSTEC (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Group Stag Jun 08 $166 +$304 +183%
Counter-Strike: HyperSpirit vs INOX Division - Map 1 Winner Jun 08 $45 −$45 -100%
Counter-Strike: HyperSpirit vs INOX Division (BO3) - European Pro Leag Jun 08 $68 −$68 -100%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $152 −$149 -98%
Counter-Strike: Bushido Wildcats vs VENOM ESPOR (BO3) - TESFED League Jun 07 $23 −$4 -15%
Counter-Strike: ARCRED vs Walczaki - Map 1 Winner Jun 07 $94 +$55 +59%
Counter-Strike: Legacy vs MIBR (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $54 −$54 -100%
Counter-Strike: Betclic Apogee Esports vs INOX Division (BO3) - NODWIN Jun 06 $118 −$24 -20%
Counter-Strike: Banger Gang vs ZOTIX (BO3) - ESEA Advanced Europe Play Jun 05 $150 −$68 -46%
Counter-Strike: RoundsGG vs ENRAGE (BO3) - ESEA Advanced Europe Playof Jun 05 $284 −$284 -100%
Dota 2: GLYPH vs REKONIX (BO5) - Esports World Cup Southeast Asia Clos Jun 05 $254 +$201 +79%
Dota 2: GLYPH vs REKONIX - Game 4 Winner Jun 05 $16 −$16 -100%
Counter-Strike: Leo Team vs Lilmix - Map 1 Winner Jun 05 $41 −$38 -92%
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs KOLESIE - Map 1 Winner Jun 04 $174 +$20 +12%
Dota 2: Aurora vs Team Yandex - Game 2 Winner Jun 04 $35 −$35 -100%
Counter-Strike: ENCE vs Entropy (BO3) - CCT Europe Closed Qualifier: S Jun 04 $151 −$150 -99%
Counter-Strike: ENCE vs Entropy - Map 1 Winner Jun 04 $78 −$18 -23%
Dota 2: REKONIX vs GLYPH - Game 1 Winner Jun 03 $105 +$98 +93%
Counter-Strike: MASQ vs Oldboys - Map 2 Winner May 10 $52 −$51 -98%
Counter-Strike: MASQ vs Oldboys (BO3) - United21 Group A May 10 $39 −$38 -97%
Counter-Strike: Atreides vs NEW VISION - Map 2 Winner May 09 $3 −$1 -20%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs 3DMAX (BO3) - PGL Bucharest Group Stage Apr 06 $71 −$71 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 2 Winner SELL Galions 100¢ $32 11m
Dota 2: Lindorfitos vs x5 Gaming - Game 1 Winner SELL x5 Gaming 100¢ $90 11m
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 2 Winner BUY Galions 33¢ $11 59m
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Spirit Academy - Game 1 Winner BUY Spirit Academy 21¢ $33 1h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Spirit Academy - Game 1 Winner BUY Spirit Academy 26¢ $41 1h
Counter-Strike: Bebop vs RUSTEC (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Sta SELL Bebop 100¢ $72 1h
Dota 2: Lindorfitos vs x5 Gaming (BO3) - The International South Ameri BUY x5 Gaming 51¢ $21 1h
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 1 Winner BUY Solary 49¢ $77 1h
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 1 Winner BUY Solary 31¢ $18 1h
Dota 2: Lindorfitos vs x5 Gaming (BO3) - The International South Ameri BUY x5 Gaming 60¢ $3 1h
Dota 2: Lindorfitos vs x5 Gaming - Game 1 Winner BUY x5 Gaming 44¢ $27 1h
Dota 2: Lindorfitos vs x5 Gaming - Game 1 Winner BUY x5 Gaming 41¢ $13 2h
Dota 2: summer bear vs Hive - Game 1 Winner SELL summer bear 100¢ $160 2h
Counter-Strike: Bebop vs RUSTEC (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Sta BUY Bebop 45¢ $33 3h
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY TheMongolz 14¢ $22 3h
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY TheMongolz 23¢ $36 3h
Counter-Strike: Bebop vs RUSTEC (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Sta BUY RUSTEC 20¢ $2 3h
Dota 2: summer bear vs Hive - Game 1 Winner BUY summer bear 65¢ $105 3h
Dota 2: summer bear vs Hive - Game 1 Winner BUY Hive 53¢ $16 4h
Counter-Strike: Bebop vs RUSTEC (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Sta SELL Bebop 78¢ $107 4h
Counter-Strike: Bebop vs RUSTEC (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Sta BUY Bebop 75¢ $105 4h
Counter-Strike: ex-RUBY vs INOX Division (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 SELL INOX Division 100¢ $71 23h
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - European Pro League Ser SELL Infinite 100¢ $78 23h
LoL: RED Canids vs LOS - Game 1 Winner BUY RED Canids 23¢ $21 24h
LoL: RED Canids vs LOS - Game 1 Winner BUY RED Canids 23¢ $37 24h
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - European Pro League Ser BUY Infinite 41¢ $17 25h
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - European Pro League Ser BUY Infinite 41¢ $2 25h
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - European Pro League Ser BUY Infinite 41¢ $5 25h
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - European Pro League Ser BUY Infinite 41¢ $3 25h
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - European Pro League Ser BUY Infinite 41¢ $1 25h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $13.31 · official $13.31 (match) · 217 history records