Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T15:49:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
D2 0xd200…7632 world 5 markets active 1h ago coverage 2d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable! high turnover
Total PnL +$404 (+59%) realized +$455 · open −$51
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +48% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +24% what you keep after slip
Net edge+24%after slip
Net WR75%break-even
Win rate75%3W / 1L
Drawdown1%max
Avg bet$137per market
Trades / day12.7pace
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$178now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 50% +$324
world 46% +$3
crypto 3% +$11
finance 2% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +75%
net ROI/market (all)+33.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +47.9% +33.8% 75% 75% +67.9%
≤30d 4 +47.9% +33.8% 75% 75% +67.9%
≤90d 4 +47.9% +33.8% 75% 75% +67.9%
all 4 +47.9% +33.8% 75% 75% +67.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover12.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +33.8% 75% +67.9%
10% +21.0% 75% +51.8%
15% +9.3% 75% +37.2%
20% -1.4% 75% +23.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 83% · top 2 97% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +86% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +48% · $-wt +86% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$130 vs −$3 · ×49.94 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×149.83 per $1 lost it wins $149.83
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$178
Realized+$455
Unrealized−$51
Win rate (resolved)75%
Wins / losses3 / 1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)4 / 5
History coverage2d
Avg bet$137
Trades / day12.7
Drawdown1%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 4 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? No 18¢ 14¢ $230 $178 −$51 (-22%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 20 $81 +$54 +67%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $95 by end of June? Jun 19 $10 −$3 -25%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 19? Jun 19 $21 +$11 +54%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $340 +$324 +95%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? BUY No 19¢ $108 1h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? BUY No 17¢ $55 1h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL No 94¢ $55 1h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? BUY No 17¢ $68 1h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL No 45¢ $79 29h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 33¢ $8 36h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $95 by end of June? SELL Yes 3¢ $8 36h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 33¢ $12 36h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 33¢ $20 36h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 19? SELL Down 53¢ $33 36h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 100¢ $421 36h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 35¢ $40 37h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 19? BUY Down 31¢ $21 37h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $95 by end of June? BUY Yes 4¢ $10 37h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 77¢ $107 37h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 73¢ $136 37h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 36¢ $77 37h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 49¢ $47 38h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 47¢ $69 38h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 47¢ $146 39h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $178.44 · official $178.44 (match) · 20 history records