Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T11:39:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D2 0xd201…763c world 79 markets active 11h ago coverage 471d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$12 (-1%) realized −$12 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate28%22W / 56L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$27per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$1
30 days−$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 30% −$5
other 25% $0
politics 24% −$1
sports 11% −$7
crypto 4% $0
finance 2% $0
economics 2% $0
weather 1% $0
tech 0% $0
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-11.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -0.2% -9.7% 29% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 20 -0.6% -10.1% 25% 0% -10.3%
≤90d 61 -2.2% -11.6% 26% 0% -9.8%
all 78 -2.2% -11.5% 28% 0% -10.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.5% 0% -10.0%
10% -19.9% 0% -18.7%
15% -27.7% 0% -26.5%
20% -34.8% 0% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 51% · top 2 60% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.24 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.22 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

471d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized−$12
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)28%
Wins / losses22 / 56
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)78 / 79
History coverage471d
Avg bet$27
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 78 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 95¢ 89¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 17 $26 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 16 $25 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $14 $0 +0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 13 $13 $0 -3%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 13 $23 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 12 $23 $0 +1%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 11 $28 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? Jun 10 $21 $0 +0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 08 $28 −$3 -10%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 07 $33 +$2 +5%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 07 $74 $0 -0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 06 $31 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 05 $31 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 02 $22 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 27 $34 −$4 -11%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 21 $3 $0 +6%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? May 20 $30 $0 +0%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? May 20 $30 $0 +0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 20 $30 $0 -0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? May 19 $47 $0 +0%
Greece x Turkey military engagement by June 30? May 18 $34 $0 -1%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 15 $28 $0 +0%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 26 $1 $0 -3%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 26 $2 $0 +2%
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Apr 26 $33 $0 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Apr 26 $64 $0 +0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 25 $13 $0 +0%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 23 $69 $0 +0%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 23 $65 $0 -0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 21 $29 $0 -0%
Will Richard Van De Water win The Bachelorette Season 22? Apr 21 $31 $0 +0%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 20 $31 $0 +0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 14 $34 $0 +0%
Will FC Cincinnati win the 2026 MLS Cup? Apr 13 $31 $0 +0%
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 12 $56 $0 +0%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 12 $1 $0 +0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 11 $31 $0 +0%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom Apr 11 $34 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? Apr 10 $34 $0 +0%
Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 09 $65 $0 +0%
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 09 $1 $0 -6%
Netanyahu out by April 30? Apr 08 $30 $0 +0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 08 $31 $0 +0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 07 $34 $0 -0%
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2025–2026 NBA Defensive Player of the Y Mar 31 $5 $0 -0%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 mee Mar 28 $31 $0 +0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 28 $34 $0 +0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Mar 28 $1 $0 +0%
Will Trump visit China by April 30? Mar 27 $27 $0 -0%
Will AfD win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections? Mar 27 $31 $0 -1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 92¢ $26 10h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $26 10h
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 100¢ $3 19h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 21¢ $2 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 21¢ $12 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 21¢ $14 3d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 35¢ $12 3d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 36¢ $13 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 52¢ $12 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 52¢ $11 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 52¢ $23 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 83¢ $23 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 82¢ $4 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 82¢ $19 4d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $22 4d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $25 4d
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? SELL No 83¢ $28 6d
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? BUY No 83¢ $28 6d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? SELL No 81¢ $21 7d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? BUY No 81¢ $21 7d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? SELL No 51¢ $26 8d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? BUY No 57¢ $28 8d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 18¢ $7 10d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 19¢ $6 10d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 19¢ $1 10d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? SELL No 79¢ $21 10d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? SELL No 79¢ $8 10d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? BUY No 79¢ $22 10d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? BUY No 79¢ $6 10d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $5 11d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.60 · official $0.00 (match) · 227 history records