Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T07:52:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
D2 0xd201…005f sports 8 markets active 12h ago coverage 5d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$1,011 (-81%) realized −$1,011 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -34% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -41% what you keep after slip
Net edge-41%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate29%2W / 5L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$156per market
Trades / day3.0pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit50%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 86% −$1,055
sports 14% +$42
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-40.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -34.5% -40.7% 29% 29% -83.9%
≤30d 7 -34.5% -40.7% 29% 29% -83.9%
≤90d 7 -34.5% -40.7% 29% 29% -83.9%
all 7 -34.5% -40.7% 29% 29% -83.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -40.7% 29% -83.9%
10% -46.4% 29% -85.5%
15% -51.6% 29% -86.9%
20% -56.3% 14% -88.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 86% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -82% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -34% · $-wt -82% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$64 vs −$228 · ×0.28 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.11 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1,011
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses2 / 5
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions0
Markets (closed)7 / 8
History coverage5d
Avg bet$156
Trades / day3.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 7 Trades
no open positions (5 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $1,007 −$1,000 -99%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $36 −$35 -98%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 16 $51 +$110 +216%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $51 −$50 -98%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $40 +$17 +43%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $51 12h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $1,007 21h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $15 36h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $10 36h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $10 36h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $161 2d
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 31¢ $20 2d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 29¢ $5 2d
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 31¢ $10 2d
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 31¢ $20 2d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 27¢ $51 3d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? AN BUY 8¢ $5 5d
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 63¢ $20 5d
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 77¢ $20 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 15 history records