Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T13:41:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D2 0xd201…58a0 other 41 markets active 1h ago coverage 9d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$8 (+0%) realized +$13 · open −$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR57%break-even
Win rate57%20W / 15L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$62per market
Trades / day5.2pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit12%portable
Net worth$213now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$69
7 days−$8
14 days−$7
30 days−$7
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 92% −$62
crypto 5% +$13
sports 3% +$37
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +57%
net ROI/market (all)-14.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 26 +7.2% -3.0% 65% 65% -9.9%
≤30d 35 -5.3% -14.3% 57% 57% -9.8%
≤90d 35 -5.3% -14.3% 57% 57% -9.8%
all 35 -5.3% -14.3% 57% 57% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.3% 57% -9.8%
10% -22.5% 46% -18.4%
15% -30.0% 43% -26.3%
20% -36.8% 29% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 25% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -25% → late +14% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$37 vs −$49 · ×0.74 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.99 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

9d coverage
Net worth$213
Realized+$13
Unrealized−$5
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses20 / 15
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions6
Markets (closed)35 / 41
History coverage9d
Avg bet$62
Trades / day5.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit12%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 35 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Yes 61¢ 57¢ $61 $57 −$4 (-6%)
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Yes 60¢ 60¢ $42 $42 −$0 (-1%)
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? Yes 83¢ 82¢ $42 $41 −$0 (-1%)
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-26? Yes 80¢ 80¢ $40 $40 −$0 (-1%)
Will Norway vs. France end in a draw? Yes 21¢ 20¢ $21 $20 −$0 (-2%)
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? Yes 21¢ 20¢ $13 $12 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 13 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $117 +$13 +11%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $75 +$15 +20%
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? Jun 25 $27 −$27 -100%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $78 −$77 -99%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $31 +$29 +93%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $72 −$72 -100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $76 +$24 +32%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $84 +$15 +18%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $27 +$10 +38%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $65 +$35 +55%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $68 +$32 +48%
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? Jun 23 $22 +$68 +315%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $51 −$51 -100%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $9 −$8 -97%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $90 +$46 +51%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $14 +$16 +119%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $86 +$39 +46%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $69 −$69 -100%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $71 +$42 +60%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $66 −$65 -99%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $3 +$2 +55%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $133 +$67 +50%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $131 −$130 -100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $201 +$24 +12%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $26 +$17 +65%
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 19 $4 −$4 -97%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $149 +$81 +54%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -97%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $51 −$50 -99%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $156 +$56 +36%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $20 −$19 -97%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $73 +$102 +140%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $71 −$70 -98%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $89 −$88 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 21¢ $13 54m
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 60¢ $43 1h
Will Norway vs. France end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $21 1h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 80¢ $40 1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 83¢ $42 1h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 61¢ $62 1h
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $27 17h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 90¢ $117 20h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 83¢ $75 20h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 62¢ $78 20h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 72¢ $27 45h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 51¢ $31 45h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 84¢ $84 45h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 75¢ $76 45h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 62¢ $72 45h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 65¢ $51 2d
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $11 2d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 7¢ $4 2d
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $10 2d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 5¢ $5 2d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 64¢ $65 2d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 67¢ $68 2d
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 66¢ $77 3d
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 63¢ $13 4d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 45¢ $14 4d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 68¢ $86 4d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 69¢ $66 5d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $69 5d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 62¢ $71 5d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 64¢ $3 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $213.02 · official $213.02 (match) · 68 history records