Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T21:35:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D2 0xd202…1ef5 sports 63 markets active 0h ago coverage 18d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$1,233 (+13%) realized +$1,024 · open +$209
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR17%break-even
Win rate32%19W / 41L
Whale WR40%big bets
Drawdown33%max
Avg bet$156per market
Trades / day18.7pace
Fees−$143est.
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$1,032now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1,248
7 days+$1,430
14 days+$1,158
30 days+$1,109
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 90% +$1,517
other 10% −$191
world 0% −$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +17%
net ROI/market (all)+1.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 30 +53.5% +38.9% 27% 17% +5.3%
≤30d 60 +11.7% +1.1% 32% 17% -1.8%
≤90d 60 +11.7% +1.1% 32% 17% -1.8%
all 60 +11.7% +1.1% 32% 17% -1.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover18.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +1.1% 17% -1.8%
10% -8.6% 13% -11.2%
15% -17.4% 10% -19.8%
20% -25.5% 8% -27.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 46% · top 2 66% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +12% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
47% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +12% · $-wt +12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 40% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -30% → late +54% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$111 vs −$24 · ×4.55 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.11 per $1 lost it wins $2.11
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

18d coverage
Net worth$1,032
Realized+$1,024
Unrealized+$209
Win rate (resolved)32%
Wins / losses19 / 41
Whale WR (big bets)40%
Est. fees paid−$143
Open positions3
Markets (closed)60 / 63
History coverage18d
Avg bet$156
Trades / day18.7
Drawdown33%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 60 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
England vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Over 79¢ 100¢ $812 $1,031 +$219 (+27%)
England vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Under 0¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-50%)
England vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Under 2¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-98%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 21 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 Jun 17 $725 −$25 -3%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $75 +$418 +554%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $31 +$977 +3162%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $49 −$48 -99%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $18 −$18 -99%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $464 −$35 -8%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $167 +$200 +120%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $174 −$21 -12%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $361 −$78 -22%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $39 −$38 -97%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 5.5 Jun 14 $820 +$13 +2%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 7.5 Jun 14 $85 −$1 -1%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 14 $266 −$13 -5%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $400 −$33 -8%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $263 −$30 -11%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $502 +$110 +22%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $10 −$10 -97%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $9 −$9 -97%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 4.5 Jun 13 $59 −$2 -4%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $1,288 −$42 -3%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $25 +$1 +3%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $31 −$30 -98%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $88 −$5 -6%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $300 +$10 +3%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 0.5 Jun 12 $27 −$26 -97%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $221 +$188 +85%
Portugal leading at halftime? Jun 10 $12 −$2 -16%
Portugal leading at halftime? Jun 10 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Fortaleza EC win on 2026-06-09? Jun 10 $62 −$17 -28%
Will UD Almería win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $78 −$32 -41%
UD Almería vs. CD Castellón: O/U 3.5 Jun 09 $25 −$18 -72%
Hungary vs. Kazakhstan: O/U 3.5 Jun 09 $25 +$2 +10%
Will Chile win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $17 −$16 -97%
Will Vila Nova FC win on 2026-06-08? Jun 09 $225 +$1 +1%
Will AC Goianiense win on 2026-06-08? Jun 09 $10 −$10 -100%
Atlético Nacional vs. CDPJuniorFC: O/U 1.5 Jun 08 $173 +$159 +92%
Netherlands vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 2.5 Jun 08 $20 +$1 +3%
Netherlands vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 1.5 Jun 08 $347 −$244 -70%
Jordan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 Jun 08 $25 +$4 +15%
Denmark vs. Ukraine: O/U 3.5 Jun 07 $160 −$30 -19%
Denmark vs. Ukraine: O/U 4.5 Jun 07 $861 −$24 -3%
Will Ukraine win on 2026-06-07? Jun 07 $8 −$8 -97%
Morocco leading at halftime? Jun 07 $59 −$3 -6%
England vs. New Zealand: O/U 1.5 Jun 06 $28 −$4 -16%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $42 −$4 -9%
Will Operário Ferroviário EC win on 2026-06-05? Jun 06 $25 +$2 +10%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 SELL Over 67¢ $36 7m
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 SELL Over 70¢ $66 9m
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 SELL Over 71¢ $100 9m
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 SELL Over 71¢ $100 10m
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 SELL Over 71¢ $100 10m
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 SELL Over 71¢ $100 10m
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 SELL Over 71¢ $100 10m
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 SELL Over 72¢ $99 11m
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 72¢ $23 24m
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 73¢ $5 24m
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 73¢ $47 24m
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 72¢ $23 24m
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 73¢ $69 24m
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 73¢ $15 24m
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 73¢ $69 24m
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 73¢ $58 24m
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 73¢ $73 24m
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 73¢ $54 24m
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 72¢ $18 24m
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 73¢ $30 24m
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 73¢ $42 24m
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 73¢ $7 24m
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 73¢ $50 24m
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 73¢ $21 24m
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 71¢ $1 24m
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 70¢ $58 24m
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 71¢ $49 24m
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 71¢ $11 24m
England vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Under 0¢ $1 45m
England vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 2¢ $10 59m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,031.72 · official $1,031.72 (match) · 359 history records