Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T14:16:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D2 0xd202…8973 sports 114 markets active 0h ago coverage 9d ⚠
BOTnot copyable sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Possible transfer/wash account⚠ Covers last 9d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (366 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$231,873 (+34%) realized +$251,844 · open −$19,971
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -37% what you keep after slip
Net edge-37%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate48%52W / 56L
Whale WR41%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$5,924per market
Trades / day366.2pace
Fees−$8,756est.
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$10,602now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 9d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 84% −$96,328
other 10% +$34,666
crypto 6% +$1,474
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (366 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-18.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 81 -10.7% -19.2% 48% 40% -16.4%
≤30d 108 -9.8% -18.4% 48% 42% -15.2%
≤90d 108 -9.8% -18.4% 48% 42% -15.2%
all 108 -9.8% -18.4% 48% 42% -15.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover366.2 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -18.4% 42% -15.2%
10% -26.2% 41% -23.3%
15% ← realistic here -33.4% 39% -30.7%
20% -39.9% 32% -37.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 26% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
13% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 41% (≥$6,417) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -11% → late -9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
28.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$5,421 vs −$5,752 · ×0.94 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.88 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

9d coverage
Net worth$10,602
Realized+$251,844
Unrealized−$19,971
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses52 / 56
Whale WR (big bets)41%
Est. fees paid−$8,756
Open positions6
Markets (closed)108 / 114
History coverage9d ⚠
Avg bet$5,924
Trades / day366.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 108 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 FUT Esports 55¢ 56¢ $5,763 $5,919 +$156 (+3%)
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Over 51¢ 50¢ $2,915 $2,886 −$29 (-1%)
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Natus Vincere 57¢ 56¢ $1,794 $1,778 −$16 (-1%)
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 TheMongolz 59¢ 0¢ $14,320 $12 −$14,308 (-100%)
Map Handicap: MGLZ (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) TheMongolz 35¢ 0¢ $2,874 $4 −$2,870 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner TheMongolz 60¢ 0¢ $2,906 $2 −$2,904 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Sweden vs. Tunisia: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $1,434 −$1,434 -100%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $44,780 +$41,751 +93%
Game Handicap: LY (-1.5) vs Team Liquid (+1.5) Jun 15 $5,663 +$10,142 +179%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $13,974 +$12,026 +86%
Netherlands vs. Japan: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $1,870 −$1,870 -100%
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 1 - 1 Ecuador? Jun 15 $4,544 +$907 +20%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $5,883 +$3,735 +64%
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 1 Japan? Jun 14 $18,853 +$1,147 +6%
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 3 Japan? Jun 14 $4,302 +$125 +3%
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 3 Japan? Jun 14 $14,727 +$203 +1%
Japan leading at halftime? Jun 14 $796 +$205 +26%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $5,848 −$5,848 -100%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $5,594 −$5,594 -100%
Exact Score: Germany 0 - 2 Curaçao? Jun 14 $415 +$2 +0%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $110 +$105 +96%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $8,650 −$8,650 -100%
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs BetBoom Team (+1.5) Jun 14 $5,787 +$4,784 +83%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $5,724 +$6,848 +120%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $2,934 +$1,467 +50%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $2,945 −$2,945 -100%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 14 $18,522 −$18,522 -100%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $370 −$370 -100%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $2,944 −$2,944 -100%
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 2 Morocco? Jun 14 $1,995 +$60 +3%
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs MOUZ (+1.5) Jun 13 $2,941 −$2,941 -100%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $3,903 −$3,903 -100%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $4,526 +$7,385 +163%
Map Handicap: FAL (-1.5) vs Monte (+1.5) Jun 13 $8,697 −$8,697 -100%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $5,882 +$2,079 +35%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $2,901 +$4,119 +142%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $5,654 +$22,594 +400%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 13 $1,824 −$1,824 -100%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $3,902 −$3,902 -100%
Game Handicap: GEN (-2.5) vs KT Rolster (+2.5) Jun 13 $16,822 −$16,822 -100%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Spread: Washington Mystics (-2.5) Jun 13 $7,268 −$7,268 -100%
Dota 2: TeamDk vs Modo Serio (BO3) - The International South America O Jun 13 $278 −$278 -100%
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs Aurora Gaming (+1.5) Jun 12 $8,670 −$8,670 -100%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score Jun 12 $6,156 +$7,226 +117%
Map Handicap: FAL (-1.5) vs BetBoom Team (+1.5) Jun 12 $2,880 −$2,880 -100%
Canada leading at halftime? Jun 12 $14,589 −$8,271 -57%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $5,927 −$5,927 -100%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $5,853 −$5,853 -100%
Map Handicap: PRV (-1.5) vs Monte (+1.5) Jun 12 $789 −$789 -100%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $2,930 −$2,930 -100%
Map Handicap: NAVI (-1.5) vs Legacy (+1.5) Jun 12 $3,787 +$5,289 +140%
Games Total: O/U 4.5 Jun 12 $2,739 −$2,739 -100%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $8,761 +$4,379 +50%
Map Handicap: MGLZ (-1.5) vs B8 (+1.5) Jun 12 $2,817 +$4,405 +156%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs B8 - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $8,681 +$6,354 +73%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 51¢ $2,957 10m
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY FUT Esports 55¢ $5,841 46m
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY TheMongolz 59¢ $2,917 2h
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner BUY TheMongolz 60¢ $2,941 2h
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY TheMongolz 59¢ $5,793 2h
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY TheMongolz 59¢ $5,787 2h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 1 Winner BUY Natus Vincere 57¢ $1,817 3h
Map Handicap: MGLZ (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) BUY TheMongolz 35¢ $2,930 3h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 51¢ $30,898 12h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 51¢ $13,882 12h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners BUY Over 49¢ $1,434 12h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Over 53¢ $13,974 15h
Game Handicap: LY (-1.5) vs Team Liquid (+1.5) BUY LYON 37¢ $284 18h
Game Handicap: LY (-1.5) vs Team Liquid (+1.5) BUY LYON 37¢ $162 18h
Game Handicap: LY (-1.5) vs Team Liquid (+1.5) BUY LYON 37¢ $919 18h
Game Handicap: LY (-1.5) vs Team Liquid (+1.5) BUY LYON 36¢ $4 18h
Game Handicap: LY (-1.5) vs Team Liquid (+1.5) BUY LYON 35¢ $47 18h
Japan leading at halftime? BUY No 79¢ $796 18h
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 1 Japan? BUY No 94¢ $8,484 18h
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 1 Japan? BUY No 94¢ $10,369 18h
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 3 Japan? BUY No 99¢ $14,727 18h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo SELL Team Falcons 43¢ $22 18h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo SELL Team Falcons 43¢ $195 18h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo SELL Team Falcons 43¢ $430 18h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo SELL Team Falcons 43¢ $290 18h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo SELL Team Falcons 43¢ $14 18h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo SELL Team Falcons 43¢ $405 18h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo SELL Team Falcons 43¢ $581 18h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo SELL Team Falcons 43¢ $311 18h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo SELL Team Falcons 43¢ $645 18h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $10,601.50 · official $10,602.86 (match) · 3500 history records