Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T02:30:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D2 0xd205…e7fb sports 1167 markets active 2h ago coverage 129d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 129d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$11,373 (-15%) realized −$11,373 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -33% what you keep after slip
Net edge-33%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate44%510W / 655L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$66per market
Trades / day20.3pace
Fees−$327est.
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$313
7 days−$4,224
14 days−$4,315
30 days−$4,315
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 57% −$6,304
other 29% −$2,755
crypto 14% −$1,520
world 0% −$208
weather 0% −$38
politics 0% +$49
culture 0% +$37
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-21.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 110 -30.2% -36.8% 22% 22% -49.7%
≤30d 128 -28.3% -35.1% 25% 25% -47.4%
≤90d 454 -35.4% -41.5% 28% 28% -42.0%
all 1165 -12.6% -21.0% 44% 41% -22.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover20.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -21.0% 41% -22.2%
10% ← realistic here -28.5% 36% -29.6%
15% -35.4% 35% -36.4%
20% -41.8% 32% -42.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -36% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt -14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late -18% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$60 vs −$63 · ×0.95 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.74 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

129d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$11,373
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses510 / 655
Est. fees paid−$327
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1165 / 1167
History coverage129d ⚠
Avg bet$66
Trades / day20.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1165 Trades
no open positions (70 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spain leading at halftime? Jun 27 $163 +$209 +128%
Lamine Yamal: 1+ assists Jun 26 $123 −$120 -98%
France leading at halftime? AND Senegal leading at halftime? Jun 26 $100 +$151 +151%
Exact Score: Senegal 1 - 0 Iraq? Jun 26 $21 −$20 -98%
Exact Score: Senegal 3 - 0 Iraq? Jun 26 $26 −$25 -98%
Exact Score: Senegal 2 - 0 Iraq? Jun 26 $62 −$60 -98%
Set 1 Winner: Marozsan vs Fokina Jun 26 $65 −$64 -99%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Zizou Bergs vs Toby Samuel Jun 26 $96 +$218 +226%
Plovdiv: Andres Santamarta vs Inaki Montes Jun 26 $30 +$24 +79%
Exact Score: Morocco 3 - 0 Haiti? Jun 24 $18 −$18 -98%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 24 $20 −$3 -15%
Exact Score: Bosnia-Herzegovina 2 - 0 Qatar? Jun 24 $21 −$21 -100%
Spread: Morocco (-4.5) Jun 24 $21 −$20 -97%
Spread: Morocco (-3.5) Jun 24 $51 −$50 -98%
Exact Score: Bosnia-Herzegovina 1 - 0 Qatar? Jun 24 $21 −$21 -100%
Exact Score: Scotland 1 - 2 Brazil? Jun 24 $21 −$20 -97%
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 2 Brazil? Jun 24 $31 −$30 -98%
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 1 Brazil? Jun 24 $21 −$20 -98%
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 1 Canada? Jun 24 $10 +$90 +873%
Bosnia-Herzegovina leading at halftime? Jun 24 $51 +$96 +188%
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 0 Canada? Jun 24 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 1 Canada? Jun 24 $20 −$20 -98%
Exact Score: Switzerland 0 - 0 Canada? Jun 24 $21 −$20 -98%
Exact Score: Bosnia-Herzegovina 1 - 1 Qatar? Jun 24 $10 −$10 -97%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Keegan Smith vs Moez Echargui Jun 24 $51 +$121 +237%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Tereza Valentova vs Ajla Tomljanovic Jun 24 $86 −$85 -98%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Nicolas Mejia vs Gustavo Heide Jun 24 $214 −$211 -99%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Alexis Galarneau vs Oliver Tarvet Jun 24 $41 −$40 -98%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Jerome Kym vs August Holmgren Jun 24 $254 −$250 -98%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Gauthier Onclin vs Shintaro Mochizuki Jun 24 $152 −$150 -98%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Jaime Faria vs Luka Pavlovic Jun 24 $102 −$100 -98%
Panama vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 23 $102 −$100 -98%
Panama leading at halftime? Jun 23 $62 −$60 -98%
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? Jun 23 $41 +$146 +354%
England vs. Ghana: 1st Half O/U 5.5 Total Corners Jun 23 $102 −$100 -98%
England vs. Ghana: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners Jun 23 $102 −$100 -98%
Exact Score: England 1 - 0 Ghana? Jun 23 $51 −$50 -97%
Exact Score: England 2 - 0 Ghana? Jun 23 $51 −$50 -98%
England vs. Ghana: Ghana O/U 0.5 Jun 23 $203 −$200 -98%
Jude Bellingham: 1+ goals Jun 23 $204 −$200 -98%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $51 −$50 -97%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Ugo Humbert vs Mattia Bellucci Jun 23 $305 +$348 +114%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Kimberly Birrell vs Barbora Krejcikova Jun 23 $204 −$200 -98%
Set Handicap: Hunter (-1.5) vs Costoulas (+1.5) Jun 23 $1 +$2 +129%
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Darja Semenistaja vs Anna Siskova Jun 23 $154 −$150 -98%
Set 2 Winner: Hunter vs Costoulas Jun 23 $152 +$90 +59%
Set 1 Winner: Hunter vs Costoulas Jun 23 $152 +$95 +62%
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Rebeka Masarova vs Jil Teichmann Jun 23 $172 −$170 -99%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 Uzbekistan? Jun 23 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 1 Uzbekistan? Jun 23 $15 −$15 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spain leading at halftime? SELL Yes 100¢ $372 1h
Lamine Yamal: 1+ assists BUY Yes 30¢ $123 5h
Spain leading at halftime? BUY Yes 43¢ $163 5h
France leading at halftime? AND Senegal leading at halftime? SELL 99¢ $251 5h
Exact Score: Senegal 1 - 0 Iraq? BUY Yes 14¢ $21 6h
Exact Score: Senegal 3 - 0 Iraq? BUY Yes 20¢ $26 6h
France leading at halftime? AND Senegal leading at halftime? BUY 39¢ $100 7h
Exact Score: Senegal 2 - 0 Iraq? BUY Yes 14¢ $62 7h
Set 1 Winner: Marozsan vs Fokina BUY Fokina 57¢ $65 10h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Zizou Bergs vs Toby Samuel SELL Zizou Bergs 100¢ $314 10h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Zizou Bergs vs Toby Samuel BUY Zizou Bergs 30¢ $35 12h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Zizou Bergs vs Toby Samuel BUY Zizou Bergs 30¢ $61 12h
Plovdiv: Andres Santamarta vs Inaki Montes SELL Inaki Montes 100¢ $54 12h
Plovdiv: Andres Santamarta vs Inaki Montes BUY Inaki Montes 55¢ $30 14h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Petra Marcinko vs Madison Keys AND Lexus Eastbo BUY 55¢ $50 16h
Exact Score: Morocco 3 - 0 Haiti? BUY Yes 13¢ $18 2d
Exact Score: Any Other Score? SELL Yes 25¢ $17 2d
Brazil leading at halftime? AND Morocco leading at halftime? BUY 34¢ $91 2d
Spread: Morocco (-4.5) BUY Morocco 10¢ $21 2d
Spread: Morocco (-3.5) BUY Morocco 19¢ $51 2d
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 28¢ $20 2d
Exact Score: Scotland 1 - 2 Brazil? BUY Yes 10¢ $21 2d
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 2 Brazil? BUY Yes 16¢ $31 2d
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 1 Brazil? BUY Yes 14¢ $21 2d
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 1 Canada? SELL Yes 100¢ $100 2d
Bosnia-Herzegovina leading at halftime? SELL Yes 100¢ $147 2d
Bosnia-Herzegovina leading at halftime? BUY Yes 34¢ $51 2d
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 0 Canada? BUY Yes 15¢ $10 2d
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 1 Canada? BUY Yes 10¢ $10 2d
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 1 Canada? BUY Yes 17¢ $20 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records