trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 2 | +18.7% | +7.4% | 100% | 100% | +11.7% |
| ≤30d | 5 | +43.2% | +29.6% | 80% | 80% | +41.9% |
| ≤90d | 5 | +43.2% | +29.6% | 80% | 80% | +41.9% |
| all | 5 | +43.2% | +29.6% | 80% | 80% | +41.9% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | +29.6% | 80% | +41.9% |
| 10% | +17.2% | 40% | +28.3% |
| 15% | +5.9% | 20% | +15.9% |
| 20% | -4.5% | 20% | +4.6% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will a new Gemini flagship be released by June 30, 2026? | Yes | 85¢ | 76¢ | $2 | $2 | −$0 (-11%) |
| Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? | No | 9¢ | 5¢ | $2 | $1 | −$1 (-44%) |
| Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? | Yes | 13¢ | 4¢ | $2 | $1 | −$1 (-72%) |
| Will Lamine Yamal win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 15¢ | 8¢ | $1 | $1 | −$0 (-47%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Lionel Messi win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Jun 17 | $4 | +$1 | +27% |
| Will Michael Olise win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Jun 16 | $1 | $0 | +11% |
| Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 30, 2026? | Jun 09 | $2 | +$5 | +260% |
| Will GPT-5.6 be released between June 1 and June 7, 2026? | Jun 06 | $1 | −$1 | -92% |
| Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by June 26, 2026? | Jun 02 | $2 | $0 | +11% |