Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T11:34:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D2 0xd20f…2f35 sports 358 markets active 0h ago coverage 105d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$2,966 (-0%) realized −$3,658 · open +$692
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR49%break-even
Win rate66%235W / 120L
Whale WR72%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3,774per market
Trades / day18.9pace
Fees−$11,712est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$12,023now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$8,795
7 days+$8,795
14 days+$8,795
30 days+$8,795
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% −$4,641
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)-9.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +78.4% +61.4% 100% 100% +61.4%
≤30d 1 +78.4% +61.4% 100% 100% +61.4%
≤90d 296 -5.6% -14.6% 62% 49% -10.2%
all 355 -0.0% -9.5% 66% 49% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover18.9 tr/day
realistic slip~14%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.5% 49% -9.9%
10% ← realistic here -18.2% 37% -18.5%
15% -26.1% 26% -26.4%
20% -33.4% 19% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 72% (≥$4,531) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +11% → late -11% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
4.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$1,661 vs −$3,298 · ×0.5 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.99 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

105d coverage
Net worth$12,023
Realized−$3,658
Unrealized+$692
Win rate (resolved)66%
Wins / losses235 / 120
Whale WR (big bets)72%
Est. fees paid−$11,712
Open positions3
Markets (closed)355 / 358
History coverage105d
Avg bet$3,774
Trades / day18.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 355 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy - Game 2 Winner KT Rolster Challengers 43¢ 89¢ $5,788 $12,015 +$6,227 (+108%)
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs T1 Academy 36¢ 0¢ $5,509 $8 −$5,501 (-100%)
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner T1 Academy 14¢ 0¢ $35 $0 −$35 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy - Game 1 Winne Jun 18 $11,225 +$8,795 +78%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs GamerLegion - Game 2 Winner Apr 21 $862 +$346 +40%
Dota 2: Aurora vs PARIVISION - Game 2 Winner Apr 21 $1,843 −$1,843 -100%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner Apr 21 $912 −$912 -100%
LoL: Galions vs TLN Pirates (BO1) - LFL Regular Season Apr 20 $498 −$498 -100%
Valorant: Team Secret vs Paper Rex - Map 2 Winner Apr 20 $987 +$42 +4%
Valorant: Eternal Fire vs Team Vitality - Map 1 Winner Apr 20 $699 −$699 -100%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Vici Gaming - Game 1 Winner Apr 20 $1,742 −$1,742 -100%
Valorant: Eternal Fire vs Team Vitality - Map 2 Winner Apr 20 $318 −$318 -100%
LoL: ThunderTalk Gaming vs Oh My God - Game 2 Winner Apr 20 $482 −$482 -100%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Rio Group A Apr 20 $1,000 −$1,000 -100%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs T1 (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 Apr 20 $538 −$538 -100%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner Apr 20 $682 −$682 -100%
Valorant: TYLOO vs Dragon Ranger Gaming - Map 1 Winner Apr 20 $63 +$7 +10%
Valorant: FULL SENSE vs VARREL - Map 2 Winner Apr 20 $589 −$428 -73%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Group Stage Apr 18 $179 +$99 +55%
Valorant: DRX vs Global Esports (BO3) - VCT Pacific Group Alpha Apr 18 $168 +$5 +3%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Vici Gaming - Game 2 Winner Apr 18 $732 +$180 +25%
Valorant: DRX vs Global Esports - Map 1 Winner Apr 18 $495 +$238 +48%
Valorant: Cloud9 vs Team Envy (BO3) - VCT Americas Stage 1 Group Alpha Apr 18 $796 +$902 +113%
Valorant: Cloud9 vs Team Envy - Map 2 Winner Apr 17 $971 +$69 +7%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Natus Vincere - Map 2 Winner Apr 17 $1,248 +$185 +15%
Valorant: Pcific Esports vs Fnatic - Map 2 Winner Apr 17 $1,016 +$233 +23%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ NXT vs ex-RUBY - Map 1 Winner Apr 17 $420 +$45 +11%
LoL: Ninjas in Pyjamas vs JD Gaming - Game 2 Winner Apr 17 $303 +$982 +324%
Counter-Strike: Acend vs Favbet (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Group Sta Apr 17 $328 +$9 +3%
Valorant: FULL SENSE vs VARREL (BO3) - VCT Pacific Group Omega Apr 17 $496 −$13 -3%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ - Map 1 Winner Apr 15 $2,844 +$1,235 +43%
Counter-Strike: Liquid vs 3DMAX - Map 1 Winner Apr 15 $1,733 −$1,733 -100%
LoL: DN SOOPers Challengers vs T1 Academy (BO3) - LCK Challengers Leag Apr 15 $680 −$680 -100%
Dota 2: Team Nemesis vs REKONIX (BO3) - DreamLeague Southeast Asia Clo Apr 15 $1,000 −$1,000 -100%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs JD Gaming - Game 2 Winner Apr 15 $1,917 −$1,917 -100%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Apr 15 $779 −$779 -100%
LoL: BNK FearX Youth vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 2 Winner Apr 15 $1,108 −$1,108 -100%
LoL: Cloud9 vs Dignitas - Game 1 Winner Apr 15 $100 +$56 +56%
Valorant: Trace Esports vs Dragon Ranger Gaming (BO3) - VCT China Grou Apr 15 $730 +$33 +4%
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs Anyone's Legend - Game 2 Winner Apr 15 $19,355 −$19,355 -100%
Dota 2: OG vs REKONIX - Game 2 Winner Apr 15 $14,841 −$14,841 -100%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Cloud Rising (BO3) - DreamLeague China Clos Apr 15 $2,880 −$24 -1%
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Apr 15 $22,371 −$22,371 -100%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Rio Group A Apr 14 $1,340 +$393 +29%
Counter-Strike: RED Canids vs Gentle Mates (BO3) - IEM Rio Group A Apr 14 $1,000 +$157 +16%
Dota 2: L1ga Team vs BetBoom Team - Game 2 Winner Apr 14 $938 +$245 +26%
Dota 2: Team Liquid vs MOUZ - Game 1 Winner Apr 14 $657 +$282 +43%
LoL: BNK FearX Youth vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 1 Winner Apr 14 $684 +$423 +62%
Valorant: TYLOO vs JD Gaming - Map 1 Winner Apr 14 $100 +$253 +253%
LoL: Team WE vs Oh My God - Game 1 Winner Apr 14 $850 −$8 -1%
Dota 2: Team Nemesis vs REKONIX - Game 2 Winner Apr 14 $876 +$561 +64%
LoL: Team Vitality vs Shifters - Game 2 Winner Apr 13 $1,563 −$1,563 -100%
Dota 2: MOUZ vs Team Lynx (BO3) - DreamLeague Western Europe Closed Qu Apr 13 $13,602 +$3,796 +28%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy - Game 2 Winne BUY KT Rolster Challengers 47¢ $2,169 16m
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy - Game 2 Winne BUY KT Rolster Challengers 46¢ $6 16m
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy - Game 2 Winne BUY KT Rolster Challengers 46¢ $283 16m
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy - Game 2 Winne BUY KT Rolster Challengers 46¢ $160 16m
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy - Game 2 Winne BUY KT Rolster Challengers 44¢ $1,040 16m
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy - Game 2 Winne BUY KT Rolster Challengers 46¢ $20 16m
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy - Game 2 Winne BUY KT Rolster Challengers 46¢ $46 16m
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy - Game 2 Winne BUY KT Rolster Challengers 46¢ $8 16m
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy - Game 2 Winne BUY KT Rolster Challengers 46¢ $24 16m
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy - Game 2 Winne BUY KT Rolster Challengers 38¢ $2,122 17m
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy - Game 1 Winne SELL Nongshim Esports Academy 100¢ $20,020 29m
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy - Game 1 Winne BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 58¢ $3,513 1h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy - Game 1 Winne BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 56¢ $4,569 1h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy - Game 1 Winne BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 55¢ $1,398 1h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy - Game 1 Winne BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 49¢ $10 1h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy - Game 1 Winne BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 49¢ $3 1h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy - Game 1 Winne BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 49¢ $2 1h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy - Game 1 Winne BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 48¢ $5 1h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy - Game 1 Winne BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 49¢ $1,725 1h
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs SELL Dplus KIA Challengers 100¢ $12,435 1h
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs SELL T1 Academy 6¢ $4 1h
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs SELL T1 Academy 6¢ $14 1h
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs SELL T1 Academy 6¢ $2 1h
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 96¢ $1,060 1h
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 82¢ $151 1h
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs BUY T1 Academy 19¢ $288 1h
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 88¢ $79 1h
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 88¢ $83 1h
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 86¢ $186 1h
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 85¢ $20 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $12,022.77 · official $12,022.77 (match) · 2176 history records