Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T04:01:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D2 0xd211…5dbf world 72 markets active 1h ago coverage 524d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$17 (-1%) realized −$17 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate32%23W / 48L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$37per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$2now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3
7 days−$5
14 days−$4
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 40% −$3
other 26% −$10
politics 15% −$5
economics 10% +$1
sports 8% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-12.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 -2.1% -11.4% 14% 0% -10.5%
≤30d 23 -0.9% -10.3% 30% 4% -9.9%
≤90d 69 -0.4% -9.9% 33% 3% -9.8%
all 71 -3.2% -12.4% 32% 3% -10.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.4% 3% -10.2%
10% -20.8% 1% -18.8%
15% -28.5% 1% -26.6%
20% -35.5% 0% -33.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 40% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
91% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.32 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.28 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

524d coverage
Net worth$2
Realized−$17
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)32%
Wins / losses23 / 48
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions1
Markets (closed)71 / 72
History coverage524d
Avg bet$37
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 71 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 18¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+11%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Jun 20 $39 −$1 -3%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 19 $36 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 19 $33 −$2 -6%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 18 $12 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 18 $41 $0 +0%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 18 $28 $0 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 17 $37 $0 +0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 16 $3 $0 +0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 15 $69 +$1 +1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 14 $15 −$4 -24%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 14 $58 $0 +0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 14 $45 $0 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 13 $46 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $40 +$1 +2%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $123 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 09 $4 +$2 +39%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? Jun 09 $42 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 07 $38 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 06 $65 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 05 $4 $0 -6%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 05 $5 $0 -1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 22 $4 −$1 -28%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 21 $34 +$1 +4%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 20 $33 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 19 $38 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? May 18 $37 $0 +0%
Greece x Turkey military engagement by June 30? May 18 $3 $0 +17%
Bill Clinton divorce by June 30? May 18 $41 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 17 $42 $0 +0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 16 $37 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Donetsk Oblast by June 30, 2026? May 15 $1 $0 -7%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 15 $38 $0 -0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by May 31, 2026? May 15 $38 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 27 $3 $0 +1%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 27 $48 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 25 $39 $0 -0%
Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 24 $115 $0 +0%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 23 $37 $0 -0%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 22 $77 $0 +0%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 22 $37 $0 -0%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 21 $7 $0 +0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 20 $47 $0 -0%
Starmer out by April 30, 2026? Apr 18 $37 $0 +1%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 18 $21 $0 -0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30? Apr 18 $37 $0 +0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 17 $36 $0 +0%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 17 $50 $0 -0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 16 $88 −$2 -2%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 15 $3 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? Apr 12 $39 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 73¢ $38 1h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 75¢ $39 3h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 49¢ $29 17h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 49¢ $7 17h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 49¢ $36 20h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 52¢ $26 24h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 52¢ $5 24h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 55¢ $33 26h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 17¢ $12 32h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 17¢ $12 34h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $41 34h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $41 36h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $28 42h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $28 44h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $37 2d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $37 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 4¢ $3 4d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 4¢ $3 4d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 77¢ $25 4d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 78¢ $25 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 13¢ $8 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 13¢ $4 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 17¢ $8 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 17¢ $8 5d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 60¢ $16 5d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 60¢ $16 5d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $45 5d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $45 5d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $2 6d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $0 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2.16 · official $2.00 (match) · 282 history records