Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T14:06:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D2 0xd212…5182 weather 78 markets active 1h ago coverage 12d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$130 (-7%) realized −$130 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate9%7W / 71L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$25per market
Trades / day28.3pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$10
7 days−$150
14 days−$175
30 days−$175
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 100% −$175
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-15.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 63 -6.8% -15.7% 10% 2% -17.7%
≤30d 78 -6.5% -15.4% 9% 3% -17.7%
≤90d 78 -6.5% -15.4% 9% 3% -17.7%
all 78 -6.5% -15.4% 9% 3% -17.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover28.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -15.4% 3% -17.7%
10% ← realistic here -23.5% 1% -25.6%
15% -30.9% 1% -32.8%
20% -37.6% 1% -39.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 52% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
71% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late -8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$3 · ×0.49 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.05 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

12d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$130
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)9%
Wins / losses7 / 71
Open positions0
Markets (closed)78 / 78
History coverage12d
Avg bet$25
Trades / day28.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 78 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 84-85°F on June 17? Jun 17 $16 $0 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 15°C on June 17? Jun 17 $3 $0 -5%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June Jun 17 $37 −$3 -7%
Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on June 17? Jun 17 $66 −$3 -5%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 70-71°F on June 17? Jun 17 $23 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 17? Jun 17 $71 −$6 -8%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 35°C on June 17? Jun 17 $8 +$1 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C or higher on June 17? Jun 17 $23 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 34°C on June 17? Jun 17 $2 $0 -6%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 17? Jun 17 $6 $0 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 32°C on June 17? Jun 17 $18 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 17? Jun 16 $41 −$2 -5%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 25°C on June 15? Jun 16 $73 +$2 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 26°C on June 15? Jun 16 $73 +$2 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June Jun 15 $12 $0 -4%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on Ju Jun 15 $80 −$11 -14%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 15? Jun 15 $22 −$2 -9%
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 15? Jun 15 $28 −$2 -8%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 31°C on June 15? Jun 15 $6 $0 -6%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 18°C on June 15? Jun 15 $11 $0 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 29°C on June 15? Jun 15 $18 −$2 -9%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 29°C on June 15? Jun 15 $111 −$14 -13%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 18°C on June 15? Jun 15 $32 −$1 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 17°C on June 15? Jun 15 $20 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 15? Jun 15 $1 $0 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on June 15? Jun 14 $20 −$1 -6%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 15? Jun 14 $18 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 88-89°F on Ju Jun 14 $10 +$1 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June Jun 14 $149 −$16 -11%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 14? Jun 14 $40 −$8 -21%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June Jun 14 $1 $0 -6%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 35°C on June 14? Jun 14 $35 −$30 -86%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 14? Jun 14 $28 −$8 -27%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 11°C on June 14? Jun 14 $1 $0 -5%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 21°C on June 14? Jun 14 $31 −$3 -9%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 14? Jun 14 $10 $0 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 14? Jun 13 $5 $0 -9%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on June 14? Jun 13 $2 $0 -5%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 74-75°F on Ju Jun 13 $2 $0 -7%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 92-93°F on June 13? Jun 13 $6 $0 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 29°C on June 13? Jun 13 $0 $0 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 13? Jun 13 $46 −$2 -5%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 25°C on June 13? Jun 13 $32 −$2 -5%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 31°C on June 13? Jun 13 $1 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 13? Jun 13 $16 −$1 -6%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 13? Jun 13 $14 $0 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 21°C on June 13? Jun 13 $24 −$1 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 13? Jun 13 $5 $0 -5%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C on June 13? Jun 12 $19 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on June 13? Jun 12 $7 $0 -2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 84-85°F on June 17? SELL Yes 51¢ $13 33m
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 84-85°F on June 17? BUY Yes 51¢ $14 34m
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 15°C on June 17? SELL Yes 47¢ $3 46m
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June SELL No 29¢ $2 55m
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 15°C on June 17? BUY Yes 48¢ $3 58m
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June BUY No 31¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June SELL No 47¢ $32 1h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June BUY No 49¢ $10 1h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June BUY No 49¢ $10 1h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June BUY No 49¢ $10 1h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June BUY No 51¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 84-85°F on June 17? SELL No 52¢ $3 2h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 84-85°F on June 17? BUY No 53¢ $3 2h
Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on June 17? SELL No 53¢ $39 4h
Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on June 17? SELL Yes 44¢ $1 4h
Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on June 17? BUY No 55¢ $41 4h
Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on June 17? BUY Yes 48¢ $1 4h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 70-71°F on June 17? SELL No 61¢ $22 5h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 17? SELL Yes 45¢ $33 6h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 17? BUY Yes 48¢ $36 6h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 70-71°F on June 17? BUY No 61¢ $23 6h
Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on June 17? SELL Yes 43¢ $2 7h
Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on June 17? BUY Yes 43¢ $2 7h
Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on June 17? SELL Yes 45¢ $22 7h
Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on June 17? BUY Yes 45¢ $22 7h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 17? SELL No 44¢ $32 7h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 17? BUY No 47¢ $0 7h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 17? BUY No 47¢ $35 7h
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 35°C on June 17? SELL Yes 50¢ $9 9h
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 35°C on June 17? BUY Yes 44¢ $8 9h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 369 history records