Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T01:33:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D2 0xd214…2b5c crypto 159 markets active 2h ago coverage 240d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$459 (-11%) realized −$460 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate80%126W / 31L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$26per market
Trades / day1.1pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$61now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$109
7 days−$104
14 days−$108
30 days−$108
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 62% −$205
other 24% −$110
sports 7% −$1
politics 5% −$86
tech 1% +$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-8.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 -20.9% -28.4% 61% 50% -16.4%
≤30d 20 -21.6% -29.1% 60% 50% -16.6%
≤90d 20 -21.6% -29.1% 60% 50% -16.6%
all 157 +1.1% -8.5% 80% 47% -18.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.5% 47% -18.3%
10% -17.3% 30% -26.2%
15% -25.3% 21% -33.3%
20% -32.6% 17% -39.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 21% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
41% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +12% → late -10% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$30 · ×0.14 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.58 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

240d coverage
Net worth$61
Realized−$460
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)80%
Wins / losses126 / 31
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions2
Markets (closed)157 / 159
History coverage240d
Avg bet$26
Trades / day1.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 157 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Yes 63¢ 64¢ $40 $41 +$1 (+2%)
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Yes 69¢ 70¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 29 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 22 $231 +$62 +27%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $145 +$16 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 21 $25 $0 +2%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $20 +$12 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 21 $25 +$5 +18%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $52 −$52 -100%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $101 +$53 +52%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $130 +$1 +1%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $100 +$12 +12%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $20 +$12 +57%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $51 −$50 -99%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $101 +$40 +40%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $101 +$48 +48%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $17 −$17 -100%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 15 $16 −$16 -100%
Spain to score first vs. Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 15 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 12 $6 −$6 -99%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $5 +$2 +44%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in January? Jan 15 $70 −$70 -100%
Will China unban Bitcoin in 2025? Jan 04 $10 $0 +1%
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2025? Jan 04 $14 +$1 +5%
Will Elon Musk announce Presidential run in 2025? Jan 04 $20 $0 +2%
Xi Jinping out in 2025? Jan 04 $29 +$1 +3%
Will Trump release more Epstein files by December 22? Dec 21 $110 −$110 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 in November? Dec 01 $28 +$2 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 16, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Nov 18 $26 +$4 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 15, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Nov 15 $12 +$8 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 14, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Nov 14 $69 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 14, 1AM ET Nov 14 $99 −$99 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 14, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Nov 14 $22 −$22 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 13, 8PM ET Nov 14 $30 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - November 13, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Nov 14 $27 +$3 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 13, 6PM ET Nov 14 $29 +$11 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 13, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Nov 14 $39 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 13, 1PM ET Nov 14 $69 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 13, 12PM ET Nov 14 $89 +$11 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 13, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Nov 13 $67 +$3 +4%
Will the Government shutdown end November 12-15? Nov 13 $19 +$1 +8%
U.S. Closes Airspace due to Government Shutdown? Nov 13 $18 +$12 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 12, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Nov 12 $19 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 11, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Nov 12 $16 +$4 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 11, 9AM ET Nov 11 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 11, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Nov 11 $37 +$3 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 9, 3PM ET Nov 10 $8 +$2 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 9, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Nov 10 $16 +$4 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 9, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Nov 10 $44 +$6 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 9, 4PM ET Nov 10 $57 +$3 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 9, 12PM ET Nov 09 $40 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 92¢ $110 1h
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 73¢ $20 1h
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 68¢ $101 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $5 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $5 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $5 8h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 69¢ $20 8h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 89¢ $44 10h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 90¢ $50 10h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 90¢ $50 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET BUY Up 92¢ $5 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $5 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET BUY Up 80¢ $5 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET BUY Up 79¢ $5 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET BUY Up 79¢ $5 22h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 74¢ $22 24h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 84¢ $29 26h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 99¢ $30 31h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 99¢ $100 31h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 63¢ $40 37h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 63¢ $20 37h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 65¢ $101 2d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 89¢ $100 2d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $20 3d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 53¢ $51 3d
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 57¢ $5 6d
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 57¢ $3 6d
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 57¢ $3 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $61.39 · official $61.39 (match) · 412 history records