Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T14:21:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D2 0xd214…d99a crypto 169 markets active 0h ago coverage 76d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$63 (-3%) realized −$65 · open +$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate42%70W / 95L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day7.6pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$42now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$71
7 days−$81
14 days−$81
30 days−$81
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% −$148
other 0% −$10
sports 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-19.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 46 -16.5% -24.5% 43% 39% -13.4%
≤30d 46 -16.5% -24.5% 43% 39% -13.4%
≤90d 165 -11.4% -19.9% 42% 36% -15.1%
all 165 -11.4% -19.9% 42% 36% -15.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.9% 36% -15.1%
10% -27.5% 32% -23.2%
15% -34.5% 23% -30.6%
20% -41.0% 18% -37.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 27% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late -14% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$8 · ×1.05 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.78 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

76d coverage
Net worth$42
Realized−$65
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses70 / 95
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)165 / 169
History coverage76d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day7.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 165 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Down 52¢ 55¢ $40 $42 +$2 (+5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 15 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 23 $83 +$77 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 23 $41 −$33 -80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 23 $41 +$37 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 23 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 23 $21 −$20 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 23 $31 −$24 -77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 23 $21 +$17 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 23 $7 +$9 +127%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 23 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 23 $120 +$28 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 23 $42 −$40 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 23 $41 +$15 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 23 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 23 $83 +$77 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 23 $83 +$74 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 23 $31 −$30 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 23 $62 −$60 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 23 $104 +$16 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 23 $114 −$10 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 23 $31 −$30 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 23 $62 −$62 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 23 $62 −$62 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 23 $103 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 23 $21 −$20 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 23 $10 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 23 $11 −$1 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 23 $31 +$29 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 23 $31 −$31 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 23 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 23 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 23 $5 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 23 $5 +$5 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 23 $10 +$10 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 23 $10 −$3 -26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 23 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 23 $10 +$10 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 23 $10 +$12 +119%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 23 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 23 $5 +$4 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 23 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 23 $5 +$5 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 23 $10 +$9 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 23 $5 −$4 -80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 23 $36 −$5 -13%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -99%
Spread: Argentina (-2.5) Jun 17 $1 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Apr 13 $1 −$1 -77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Apr 13 $6 −$1 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Apr 13 $2 +$1 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Apr 13 $3 −$2 -51%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $41 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $83 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET SELL Up 11¢ $8 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $41 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $41 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $26 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Up 22¢ $21 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET SELL Up 11¢ $6 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $31 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET SELL Up 84¢ $17 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET SELL Down 70¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET SELL Down 70¢ $9 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET SELL Down 70¢ $16 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $13 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET SELL Down 60¢ $8 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET SELL Down 60¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET SELL Down 60¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET SELL Down 60¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET SELL Down 60¢ $18 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET SELL Down 60¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET SELL Down 60¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET SELL Down 60¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET SELL Down 60¢ $18 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET SELL Down 60¢ $15 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET SELL Down 60¢ $14 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET SELL Down 60¢ $4 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $41.92 · official $39.62 · 658 history records