Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T08:27:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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D2 0xd217…7561 crypto 650 markets active 0h ago coverage 184d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 183d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$2,084 (-4%) realized −$2,092 · open +$8
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate75%486W / 163L
Whale WR83%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$79per market
Trades / day15.6pace
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$666now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$434
7 days+$726
14 days+$1,109
30 days+$1,407
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 47% +$1,381
weather 39% −$567
crypto 11% −$367
culture 3% −$983
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-18.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 +6.6% -3.6% 100% 8% -3.1%
≤30d 27 +5.9% -4.2% 93% 15% -4.2%
≤90d 82 -1.3% -10.7% 88% 15% -9.3%
all 649 -9.8% -18.4% 75% 8% -10.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover15.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.4% 8% -10.5%
10% -26.2% 5% -19.1%
15% -33.3% 4% -26.9%
20% -39.8% 3% -34.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 22% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
89% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 83% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -12% → late -7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$23 · ×0.29 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.86 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

184d coverage
Net worth$666
Realized−$2,092
Unrealized+$8
Win rate (resolved)75%
Wins / losses486 / 163
Whale WR (big bets)83%
Open positions1
Markets (closed)649 / 650
History coverage184d ⚠
Avg bet$79
Trades / day15.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 649 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 26? No 99¢ 100¢ $658 $666 +$8 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 26? Jun 26 $604 +$7 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 26? Jun 26 $36 $0 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Jun 26 $603 +$30 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 26? Jun 26 $1,227 +$125 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 25? Jun 25 $981 +$77 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 25? Jun 25 $159 +$10 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 24? Jun 24 $640 +$173 +27%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 24? Jun 24 $315 +$11 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C on June 24? Jun 24 $168 +$3 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 23 $1,432 +$119 +8%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? Jun 20 $1,407 +$20 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 19 $1,385 +$28 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 19 $1,263 +$123 +10%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $1,251 +$10 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? Jun 16 $1,412 −$157 -11%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $1,374 +$39 +3%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $1,344 +$19 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Jun 13 $1,514 +$408 +27%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $875 +$64 +7%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 10 $954 −$76 -8%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $846 +$109 +13%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 06 $812 +$34 +4%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 05 $709 +$103 +14%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 02 $691 +$8 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 01 $640 +$55 +9%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 29 $634 +$8 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 28 $576 +$58 +10%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 26 $536 +$43 +8%
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 25 $479 +$57 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on May 23? May 23 $67 −$66 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on May 23? May 23 $457 +$9 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 22 $441 +$28 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on May 22? May 22 $54 +$5 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on May 21? May 21 $54 +$7 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on May 21? May 20 $432 +$12 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on May 20? May 20 $466 +$13 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on May 20? May 20 $451 +$22 +5%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? May 19 $444 +$6 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? May 19 $411 +$26 +6%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from May 16 to May 18, 2026? May 18 $807 +$24 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on May 17? May 17 $384 +$5 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on May 17? May 17 $369 +$17 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on May 16? May 16 $359 +$9 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C or higher on May 16? May 16 $355 +$9 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on May 15? May 15 $346 +$3 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on May 15? May 14 $94 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on May 14? May 14 $346 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C or higher on May 14? May 14 $338 +$11 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on May 13? May 13 $240 +$10 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on May 13? May 13 $79 +$2 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 26? SELL No 100¢ $92 10m
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 26? SELL Yes 100¢ $611 31m
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 26? SELL No 100¢ $30 42m
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 26? SELL No 100¢ $250 48m
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 26? SELL No 100¢ $10 56m
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 26? SELL No 100¢ $20 1h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 26? SELL No 100¢ $16 1h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 26? SELL No 100¢ $24 1h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 26? SELL No 100¢ $12 1h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 26? SELL No 100¢ $242 1h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 26? SELL No 100¢ $36 1h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 26? BUY No 99¢ $36 2h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 26? BUY Yes 99¢ $265 2h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 26? BUY Yes 99¢ $111 2h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 26? BUY Yes 99¢ $99 2h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 26? BUY Yes 99¢ $8 2h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 26? BUY Yes 99¢ $74 2h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 26? BUY Yes 98¢ $8 2h
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $599 2h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 26? BUY Yes 96¢ $38 3h
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $34 3h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 26? BUY No 99¢ $16 4h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 26? BUY No 99¢ $130 4h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 26? BUY No 99¢ $18 4h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 26? BUY No 99¢ $18 4h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 26? BUY No 99¢ $1,165 4h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 26? SELL No 100¢ $2 5h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 26? SELL No 100¢ $5 5h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 26? SELL No 100¢ $38 5h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 26? SELL No 100¢ $229 5h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $665.53 · official $665.53 (match) · 3500 history records