Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T11:45:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

D2
0xd218…b5c9
sports · 255 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$184,993 -65%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$9,357 · open −$311,329
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist
Net worth$232,044
Realized−$9,357
Unrealized−$311,329
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses75 / 103
Whale WR (big bets)49%
Est. fees paid−$2,276
Open positions500
Markets (closed)178 / 255
Avg bet$1,120
Trades / day2985.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit77%
Chart Positions 500 History 178 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$9,357
7 days−$9,357
14 days−$9,357
30 days−$9,357
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Iraq advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 84¢ 86¢ $12,057 $12,348 +$291 (+2%)
Will Qatar advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 75¢ 80¢ $10,567 $11,200 +$632 (+6%)
Will Canada advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 85¢ 86¢ $7,783 $7,846 +$64 (+1%)
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Card) Justin Gaethje 17¢ 20¢ $6,422 $7,399 +$977 (+15%)
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Bosnia-Herzegovina O/U 2.5 Under 94¢ 95¢ $7,214 $7,345 +$131 (+2%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 14¢ 16¢ $5,871 $6,612 +$740 (+13%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 15¢ 17¢ $5,046 $5,722 +$675 (+13%)
Will Rick Jackson win the 2026 Georgia Governor Republican primary election? Yes 23¢ 42¢ $2,613 $4,765 +$2,152 (+82%)
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Canada O/U 2.5 Under 79¢ 80¢ $4,493 $4,588 +$95 (+2%)
Will Ghana advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 51¢ 50¢ $4,574 $4,524 −$50 (-1%)
Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? No 30¢ 40¢ $3,425 $4,494 +$1,069 (+31%)
Will Europe (UEFA) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 72¢ 72¢ $4,061 $4,089 +$28 (+1%)
Will A Nation That Has Never Won the World Cup Win in 2026? No 69¢ 69¢ $4,056 $4,082 +$26 (+1%)
Will Morocco advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 86¢ 86¢ $3,618 $3,649 +$31 (+1%)
Will Saudi Arabia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 62¢ 66¢ $3,398 $3,589 +$192 (+6%)
United States vs. Paraguay: United States O/U 2.5 Under 81¢ 85¢ $3,416 $3,585 +$169 (+5%)
Exact Score: United States 3 - 1 Paraguay? No 94¢ 95¢ $3,335 $3,362 +$28 (+1%)
Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? No 78¢ 81¢ $3,096 $3,215 +$119 (+4%)
United States vs. Paraguay: Paraguay O/U 2.5 Under 91¢ 94¢ $2,787 $2,890 +$102 (+4%)
Will South Africa advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 65¢ 82¢ $2,238 $2,848 +$610 (+27%)
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 3¢ 26¢ $318 $2,674 +$2,356 (+740%)
HSBC Championships: Marie Bouzkova vs Donna Vekic Donna Vekic 65¢ 100¢ $1,574 $2,411 +$837 (+53%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 11¢ $1,909 $2,352 +$442 (+23%)
Will Türkiye win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 60¢ 62¢ $1,905 $1,949 +$44 (+2%)
Will Darryn Peterson be the first pick in the 2026 NBA draft? No 78¢ 90¢ $1,687 $1,940 +$253 (+15%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
ITF Nice: Iva Ivanova vs Maria Sara Popa Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
ITF Ceska Lipa: Jan Kumstat vs Marvin Moeller Jun 12 $6 −$6 -100%
ITF Hurghada: Valentina Ryser vs Gabriela Andrea Knutson Jun 12 $8 −$8 -100%
ITF Varnamo: Gilles Arnaud Bailly vs Aristotelis Thanos Jun 12 $96 −$40 -41%
ITF Varnamo: Henry Bernet vs Noah Schlagenhauf Jun 12 $179 +$66 +37%
ITF Madrid: Neus Torner Sensano vs Carmen Gallardo Guevara Jun 12 $84 −$84 -100%
ITF Hurghada: Anastasia Tikhonova vs Sandra Samir Jun 12 $36 −$36 -100%
ITF Kayseri: Laurence Teunissen vs Haydar Cem Gokpinar Jun 12 $82 −$81 -98%
Libema Open: Barbora Krejcikova vs Gabriela Ruse Jun 12 $232 −$216 -94%
ITF kiseljak: Vladyslav Orlov vs Alen Mujakic Jun 12 $296 −$285 -96%
KBO: Lotte Giants vs. LG Twins Jun 12 $145 −$29 -20%
Bratislava: Alexander Shevchenko vs Maxim Mrva Jun 12 $178 −$31 -17%
KBO: Hanwha Eagles vs. Kiwoom Heroes Jun 12 $463 −$42 -9%
ITF Madrid: Marta Soriano Santiago vs Margaux Maquet Jun 12 $21 −$18 -87%
ITF Casablanca: Nina Vargova vs Martina Colmegna Jun 12 $10 −$4 -40%
KBO: Doosan Bears vs. Kia Tigers Jun 12 $156 −$137 -88%
ITF kiseljak: Andrej Nedic vs Yaroslav Demin Jun 12 $21 +$22 +108%
ITF Guimaraes: Francisca Jorge vs Aliona Falei Jun 12 $94 +$56 +59%
Cattolica: Jesper de Jong vs Marco Cecchinato Jun 12 $108 +$16 +15%
ITF Guimaraes: Ariana Arseneault vs Katarina Kuzmova Jun 12 $78 +$65 +84%
Lyon: Dali Blanch vs David Jorda Sanchis Jun 12 $972 +$96 +10%
ITF Kursumlijska Banja: Stefano D'agostino vs Carlos Giraldi Jun 12 $28 −$20 -74%
Libema Open: Caty McNally vs Solana Sierra Jun 12 $613 +$20 +3%
ITF kiseljak: Matias Ponce De Leon Gomila vs Kirill Kivattsev Jun 12 $186 +$359 +193%
ITF Monastir: Lourdes Ayala vs Chiara Fornasieri Jun 12 $7 +$9 +122%
ITF Kayseri: Volodymyr Iakubenko vs Maxwell Mckennon Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 5.5 Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
ITF Kursumlijska Banja: Ksenia Zaytseva vs Karine Sarkisova Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
ITF Kayseri: Sofiia Bielinska vs Lan Mi Jun 12 $9 −$9 -100%
ITF Monastir: Paul Barbier Gazeu vs Cesar Bouchelaghem Jun 12 $15 −$15 -100%
Exact Score: Korea Republic 0 - 1 Czechia? Jun 12 $95 −$31 -32%
ITF Tokyo: Naoya Honda vs Taisei Ichikawa Jun 12 $11 −$11 -100%
Czechia leading at halftime? Jun 12 $21 −$21 -100%
ITF Varnamo: Max Wiskandt vs Sandro Kopp Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 4.5 Jun 12 $232 −$112 -48%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $1,657 −$1,349 -81%
Counter-Strike: Marsborne vs F5 Esports (BO3) - NSTLGA League Playoffs Jun 12 $183 −$183 -100%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 3.5 Jun 12 $1,650 −$265 -16%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 12 $1,898 +$411 +22%
ITF Hurghada: Polina Iatcenko vs Sara Milanese Jun 12 $450 −$450 -100%
Spread: Korea Republic (-2.5) Jun 12 $254 −$254 -100%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $7,903 −$3,718 -47%
Las Vegas Aces vs. PortlandFire Jun 12 $475 −$475 -100%
Exact Score: Korea Republic 2 - 1 Czechia? Jun 12 $9,339 −$7,547 -81%
Korea Republic leading at halftime? Jun 12 $11 −$11 -100%
ITF Kayseri: Ivan Marrero Curbelo vs Keshav Chopra Jun 12 $26 −$26 -100%
ITF Tokyo: Hikaru Shiraishi vs Kosuke Ogura Jun 12 $181 −$113 -62%
ITF Maanshan: Dong Ju Kim vs Matthew Dellavedova Jun 12 $19 −$19 -100%
Exact Score: Korea Republic 1 - 0 Czechia? Jun 12 $331 −$82 -25%
ITF Kursumlijska Banja: Marie Mettraux vs Anja Stankovic Jun 12 $494 −$300 -61%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 72% −$330,354
sports 28% +$6,438
politics 0% +$3,220
world 0% +$9
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY FURIA 94¢ $46 0m
KBO: Hanwha Eagles vs. Kiwoom Heroes BUY Kiwoom Heroes 10¢ $0 0m
HSBC Championships: Elena Rybakina vs Tatjana Maria BUY Elena Rybakina 24¢ $3 1m
KBO: Doosan Bears vs. Kia Tigers BUY Kia Tigers 4¢ $0 1m
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY T1 2¢ $4 1m
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY FURIA 93¢ $93 1m
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY Hanwha Life Esports 94¢ $94 1m
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY MOUZ 5¢ $3 1m
HSBC Championships: Elena Rybakina vs Tatjana Maria BUY Elena Rybakina 29¢ $44 1m
ITF Casablanca: Luna Vujovic vs Carlota Martinez Cirez BUY Luna Vujovic 62¢ $31 2m
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY FURIA 85¢ $264 2m
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY FURIA 85¢ $55 2m
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY FURIA 85¢ $85 2m
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY FURIA 85¢ $127 2m
United States vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY Yes 14¢ $2 2m
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY FURIA 84¢ $42 2m
HSBC Championships: Elena Rybakina vs Tatjana Maria BUY Elena Rybakina 34¢ $51 2m
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY FURIA 86¢ $19 2m
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY FURIA 86¢ $43 2m
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY T1 2¢ $6 2m
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY Hanwha Life Esports 92¢ $12 4m
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY T1 6¢ $6 5m
KBO: SSG Landers vs. Samsung Lions BUY SSG Landers 65¢ $32 5m
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY T1 8¢ $8 5m
KBO: SSG Landers vs. Samsung Lions BUY Samsung Lions 23¢ $12 5m
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY Hanwha Life Esports 83¢ $2 6m
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY Hanwha Life Esports 83¢ $83 6m
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY T1 17¢ $8 6m
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY FURIA 91¢ $6 6m
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY FURIA 91¢ $46 6m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)+8.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 178 +20.4% +8.9% 42% 30% -15.1%
≤30d 178 +20.4% +8.9% 42% 30% -15.1%
≤90d 178 +20.4% +8.9% 42% 30% -15.1%
all 178 +20.4% +8.9% 42% 30% -15.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover2985.0 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +8.9% 30% -15.1%
10% -1.5% 25% -23.2%
15% ← realistic here -11.0% 22% -30.6%
20% -19.8% 19% -37.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $232,044.16 · official $249,948.06 · 3500 history records