Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:26:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D2 0xd219…6cc3 crypto 342 markets active 4d ago coverage 6d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (56 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$15 (-4%) realized −$15 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -31% what you keep after slip
Net edge-31%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate41%139W / 203L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1per market
Trades / day55.8pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$22
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (56 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-19.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 100 -46.3% -51.4% 22% 22% -49.1%
≤30d 342 -10.5% -19.0% 41% 40% -14.9%
≤90d 342 -10.5% -19.0% 41% 40% -14.9%
all 342 -10.5% -19.0% 41% 40% -14.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover55.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -19.0% 40% -14.9%
10% ← realistic here -26.8% 40% -23.0%
15% -33.8% 40% -30.4%
20% -40.3% 40% -37.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +6% → late -27% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×1.31 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.9 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$15
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses139 / 203
Open positions0
Markets (closed)342 / 342
History coverage6d
Avg bet$1
Trades / day55.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 342 Trades
no open positions (202 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 12 $1 +$1 +140%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 12 $1 +$2 +146%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 12 $1 +$2 +181%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 12 $1 +$1 +140%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 12 $1 +$2 +166%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 12 $1 +$1 +134%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 12 $1 +$1 +134%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 12 $3 $0 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 12 $1 +$1 +134%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 12 $1 +$1 +134%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 12 $1 +$2 +146%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 12 $1 +$2 +146%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 12 $1 +$1 +140%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jun 12 $1 +$1 +140%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 12 $1 +$2 +146%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Down 38¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Down 37¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Down 31¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Up 37¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Down 39¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Down 39¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Down 37¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Up 32¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Up 34¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET BUY Down 39¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Down 36¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Up 15¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Up 39¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 36¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 41¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Up 36¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Down 41¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET BUY Up 33¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET BUY Down 36¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET BUY Down 41¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Down 41¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Down 41¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET SELL Up 40¢ $2 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 503 history records