Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T01:50:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

D2
0xd21c…8d63
politics · 40 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
+$0 +0%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$0 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fresh edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$0
Realized+$0
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)28%
Wins / losses11 / 29
Open positions0
Markets (closed)40 / 40
History coverage262d
Avg bet$15
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown88%
Kalshi-fit82%
Chart Positions 0 History 40 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $8 −$1 -16%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 12 $15 $0 +2%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Jun 10 $30 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 10 $30 $0 +0%
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 4.6% in 2025? Oct 12 $36 $0 -0%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Oct 12 $21 $0 -0%
Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Oct 12 $23 $0 +0%
Will Frankenstein win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? Oct 12 $20 $0 -1%
Will the Government shutdown end October 10-14? Oct 12 $4 $0 +3%
Will Ethereum hit $17,000 by December 31? Oct 11 $22 $0 -0%
Will Trump pardon Elizabeth Holmes in 2025? Oct 11 $16 $0 -0%
Will Inter win the 2025–26 Champions League? Oct 10 $18 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2025 World Series? Oct 10 $3 +$2 +84%
Will the Golden State Warriors win the 2026 NBA Finals? Oct 10 $17 $0 +0%
Will 2025 be the hottest year on record? Oct 09 $1 $0 +0%
Will Trump meet with Yoon Suk Yeol in 2025? Oct 09 $10 $0 +0%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Oct 09 $9 $0 +0%
Will the San Francisco 49ers win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 09 $8 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Oct 08 $16 $0 +0%
Will the New England Patriots win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 08 $14 $0 -0%
Will Trump announce Kevin Hassett as next Fed Chair in 2025? Oct 08 $3 $0 +0%
Will Karel Havlíček be the next Prime Minister of the Czech Republic a Oct 07 $16 $0 +0%
Will the Dallas Mavericks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Oct 07 $16 $0 +0%
Will Newcastle win the 2025–26 Champions League? Oct 05 $8 $0 +0%
Will Trump meet with Ali Khamenei in 2025? Oct 04 $8 $0 +0%
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Oct 02 $8 $0 +0%
Putin out as President of Russia in 2025? Oct 01 $8 $0 +0%
Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2025? Oct 01 $8 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Rams win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 30 $8 $0 -1%
Will Donald Trump win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Sep 30 $7 $0 -2%
Will Trump pardon Hunter Biden in 2025? Sep 27 $21 $0 +0%
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by September 30? Sep 27 $26 $0 +1%
Will Trump meet with Jair Bolsonaro in 2025? Sep 26 $25 $0 +0%
Will Shigeru Ishiba be the first leader out in 2025? Sep 26 $1 $0 +3%
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2025 World Series? Sep 25 $26 $0 -0%
Will Rahm Emanuel win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Sep 25 $27 $0 +0%
Will Bruno Mars be the top Spotify artist for 2025? Sep 25 $26 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be between 67-68°F on September Sep 24 $28 −$1 -4%
Will Alibaba have the top AI model on December 31? Sep 24 $26 $0 +0%
Will Lilo & Stitch be the top grossing movie of 2025? Sep 23 $2 $0 -1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
politics 29% $0
world 19% −$1
sports 13% $0
other 10% +$2
culture 9% $0
finance 6% $0
weather 5% −$1
tech 4% $0
crypto 4% $0
economics 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 21¢ $7 1h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 25¢ $8 3h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 44¢ $10 6h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 44¢ $6 6h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 43¢ $15 10h
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $3 2d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $17 2d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $10 2d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $30 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 76¢ $11 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 76¢ $19 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 76¢ $9 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 76¢ $21 2d
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 4.6% in 2025? SELL No 84¢ $3 243d
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 98¢ $4 243d
Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $23 243d
Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $23 243d
Will Frankenstein win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? SELL No 98¢ $20 243d
Will the Government shutdown end October 10-14? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 243d
Will the Government shutdown end October 10-14? SELL Yes 4¢ $0 243d
Will the Government shutdown end October 10-14? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 243d
Will Frankenstein win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? BUY No 98¢ $20 244d
Will the Government shutdown end October 10-14? BUY Yes 4¢ $4 244d
Will Ethereum hit $17,000 by December 31? SELL No 97¢ $22 244d
Will Ethereum hit $17,000 by December 31? BUY No 98¢ $22 244d
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 4.6% in 2025? SELL No 86¢ $16 244d
Will Trump pardon Elizabeth Holmes in 2025? SELL No 92¢ $7 244d
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 4.6% in 2025? BUY No 86¢ $18 244d
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 4.6% in 2025? SELL No 86¢ $7 245d
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 4.6% in 2025? SELL No 86¢ $11 245d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-8.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -3.4% -12.6% 50% 0% -10.6%
≤30d 4 -3.4% -12.6% 50% 0% -10.6%
≤90d 4 -3.4% -12.6% 50% 0% -10.6%
all 40 +1.7% -8.0% 28% 2% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.0% 2% -9.5%
10% -16.8% 2% -18.2%
15% -24.9% 2% -26.1%
20% -32.2% 2% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 108 history records