Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T09:06:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
D2 0xd21f…8570 crypto 998 markets active 2h ago coverage 52d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 51d only
✗ bot/MM pace (53 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$326 (+6%) realized +$326 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate49%492W / 505L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day52.8pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$40
7 days+$40
14 days+$40
30 days+$148
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 88% −$77
sports 9% +$21
other 3% +$17
weather 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (53 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-12.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 21 +28.5% +16.3% 52% 48% +0.2%
≤30d 83 +17.9% +6.6% 58% 51% -1.6%
≤90d 997 -3.7% -12.9% 49% 46% -10.2%
all 997 -3.7% -12.9% 49% 46% -10.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover52.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -12.9% 46% -10.2%
10% ← realistic here -21.2% 44% -18.8%
15% -28.9% 41% -26.6%
20% -35.8% 38% -33.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -9% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$4 · ×1.01 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.98 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

52d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized+$326
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses492 / 505
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions1
Markets (closed)997 / 998
History coverage52d ⚠
Avg bet$5
Trades / day52.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 997 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
France vs. Iraq: O/U 12.5 Total Corners Over 24¢ 20¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-15%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Austria win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 22 $7 −$1 -18%
Bad Homburg Open: Eva Lys vs Emma Navarro Jun 22 $19 −$1 -5%
Will Colombia win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 22 $50 −$3 -6%
Will Japan win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 22 $2 $0 -14%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 22 $3 +$19 +537%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Cabo Verde O/U 2.5 Corners Jun 22 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 22 $10 +$3 +31%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 22 $23 +$7 +32%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 22 $14 +$3 +23%
Darwin Núñez: 1+ goals Jun 22 $6 −$6 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 22 $19 +$2 +12%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 22 $14 −$14 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 22 $32 +$7 +20%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 22 $32 −$2 -6%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 22 $33 +$2 +5%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Uruguay O/U 6.5 Corners Jun 22 $23 +$24 +108%
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 21 $18 −$8 -44%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 21 $50 −$2 -4%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 21 $5 +$3 +67%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 21 $7 +$6 +87%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 21 $5 +$4 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 02 $35 +$7 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 02 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 02 $20 +$6 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 02 $7 +$4 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 02 $19 +$11 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 02 $6 −$3 -45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 01 $18 +$7 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 01 $31 +$17 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 01 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 01 $14 +$9 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 01 $51 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 01 $40 −$1 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 01 $22 +$12 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 01 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 01 $47 +$11 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 01 $13 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 01 $3 +$30 +914%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 01 $42 +$21 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 01 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 01 $5 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET May 28 $25 +$10 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET May 28 $49 +$8 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET May 28 $28 −$28 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET May 28 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET May 28 $21 −$2 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET May 28 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET May 28 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET May 28 $16 +$2 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET May 28 $33 +$14 +43%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Austria win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 13¢ $6 1h
Bad Homburg Open: Eva Lys vs Emma Navarro SELL Emma Navarro 62¢ $18 1h
Will Colombia win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 49¢ $47 1h
Will Japan win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 20¢ $2 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $10 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $11 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $12 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $5 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET BUY Down 38¢ $5 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET BUY Down 35¢ $5 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $5 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET BUY Up 41¢ $5 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET BUY Up 37¢ $5 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET BUY Up 36¢ $5 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $7 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $6 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET BUY Down 26¢ $2 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET BUY Down 28¢ $2 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $1 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET BUY Up 39¢ $5 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $10 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $13 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $14 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET BUY Down 72¢ $5 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $4 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $5 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET BUY Down 41¢ $5 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET BUY Up 41¢ $5 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET BUY Up 33¢ $5 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET BUY Up 30¢ $5 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.91 · official $0.91 (match) · 3500 history records