Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T16:23:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D2 0xd220…c03d world 66 markets active 1h ago coverage 103d
TRAPdo not copy world specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$987 (+2%) realized +$895 · open +$92
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate75%42W / 14L
Whale WR71%big bets
Drawdown50%max
Avg bet$902per market
Trades / day16.9pace
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$5,896now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$416
7 days+$40
14 days+$629
30 days+$1,189
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 40% −$1,427
other 35% +$986
politics 12% +$725
tech 9% +$605
culture 3% +$134
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-10.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +10.7% +0.2% 71% 57% -8.9%
≤30d 22 -2.7% -12.0% 73% 45% -2.1%
≤90d 45 -3.1% -12.3% 76% 33% -7.3%
all 56 -0.8% -10.3% 75% 34% -7.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover16.9 tr/day
realistic slip~11%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.3% 34% -7.9%
10% ← realistic here -18.8% 14% -16.7%
15% -26.7% 7% -24.7%
20% -33.9% 4% -32.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 38% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
55% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 71% (≥$1,020) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -1% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
9.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$84 vs −$184 · ×0.45 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.36 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

103d coverage
Net worth$5,896
Realized+$895
Unrealized+$92
Win rate (resolved)75%
Wins / losses42 / 14
Whale WR (big bets)71%
Open positions10
Markets (closed)56 / 66
History coverage103d
Avg bet$902
Trades / day16.9
Drawdown50%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 10 History 56 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Rebecca Shepherd win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? No 99¢ 99¢ $1,741 $1,747 +$6 (+0%)
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? Yes 76¢ 88¢ $1,263 $1,471 +$208 (+16%)
Netanyahu out by June 30? No 86¢ 99¢ $977 $1,123 +$145 (+15%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No 83¢ 80¢ $781 $758 −$23 (-3%)
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? No 88¢ 88¢ $598 $594 −$3 (-1%)
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 11¢ 4¢ $364 $121 −$243 (-67%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? No 92¢ 100¢ $67 $72 +$6 (+8%)
Opensea FDV above $1B one day after launch? Yes 28¢ 19¢ $12 $8 −$4 (-33%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Yes 71¢ 100¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+41%)
Netanyahu out by end of 2026? No 61¢ 36¢ $1 $0 −$0 (-40%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 17 $1,048 −$416 -40%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $2,000 −$456 -23%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.6T? Jun 12 $244 +$46 +19%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? Jun 12 $840 +$660 +79%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 12 $610 +$85 +14%
Will Nithya Raman finish first in the first round of the 2026 Los Ange Jun 11 $124 +$8 +6%
Will Karen Bass finish first in the first round of the 2026 Los Angele Jun 11 $568 +$114 +20%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $46 +$1 +3%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 15, 2026? Jun 09 $98 +$6 +6%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by July 31, 2026? Jun 09 $45 +$1 +3%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 10, 2026? Jun 09 $525 +$66 +12%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $1,020 +$220 +22%
Will Spencer Pratt finish first in the first round of the 2026 Los Ang Jun 09 $1,562 +$293 +19%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 08 $5 +$1 +24%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? Jun 01 $18 $0 +1%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? Jun 01 $858 +$8 +1%
Will Karen Bass & Nithya Raman advance to the second round of the 2026 May 28 $14 −$10 -72%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 28 $93 −$87 -93%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? May 27 $160 +$30 +19%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? May 25 $1,618 −$28 -2%
Iran closes its airspace by June 15? May 25 $123 −$27 -22%
Chirayu Rana sued? May 21 $2,986 +$674 +23%
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? May 04 $97 +$26 +27%
Trump out as President by April 30? May 01 $23 $0 +1%
Netanyahu out by April 30? May 01 $576 +$9 +2%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 30 $3,074 +$126 +4%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 15? Apr 16 $282 +$5 +2%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th? Apr 16 $2,225 +$275 +12%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30? Apr 13 $626 −$441 -70%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? Apr 11 $309 −$50 -16%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by April 30, 2026? Apr 10 $572 +$102 +18%
US forces enter Iran by December 31? Apr 09 $352 +$151 +43%
US forces enter Iran by April 30? Apr 09 $2,340 +$122 +5%
US x Iran ceasefire by May 31? Apr 08 $147 +$3 +2%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 30? Apr 08 $6 $0 +2%
US x Iran ceasefire by June 30? Apr 08 $23 $0 +2%
US x Iran ceasefire by May 15? Apr 08 $37 +$1 +2%
US x Iran ceasefire by December 31? Apr 08 $572 +$6 +1%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? Apr 07 $363 −$348 -96%
Netanyahu out by March 31? Apr 05 $10,903 +$14 +0%
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31? Apr 01 $118 +$19 +16%
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? Mar 31 $207 +$7 +3%
US forces enter Iran by March 31? Mar 28 $2,820 +$76 +3%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026? Mar 24 $456 −$74 -16%
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? Mar 23 $730 −$195 -27%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 mee Mar 19 $5 $0 +0%
Will Iran strike Israel on March 10? Mar 18 $352 −$299 -85%
Russia strike impacts Kyiv municipality during week of March 2, 2026? Mar 17 $33 +$8 +25%
Will "Reminders of Him" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 19m and Mar 17 $309 +$19 +6%
Will "Reminders of Him" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 16m and Mar 17 $1,478 +$115 +8%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? BUY No 88¢ $13 34m
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? BUY No 88¢ $51 50m
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? BUY No 88¢ $17 1h
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? BUY No 88¢ $90 1h
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? BUY No 88¢ $163 1h
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? BUY No 88¢ $14 2h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL No 44¢ $61 2h
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? BUY No 88¢ $44 2h
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? BUY No 88¢ $111 2h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL No 44¢ $29 2h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL No 44¢ $47 2h
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? BUY No 88¢ $98 2h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL No 44¢ $0 2h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL No 44¢ $0 2h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL No 44¢ $4 2h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL No 44¢ $2 2h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL No 50¢ $34 9h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL No 46¢ $8 9h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL No 45¢ $2 9h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL No 43¢ $3 9h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL No 43¢ $15 9h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL No 43¢ $26 9h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL No 43¢ $0 9h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL No 42¢ $7 9h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL No 47¢ $10 10h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL No 46¢ $1 11h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL No 46¢ $0 11h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL No 46¢ $4 11h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL No 46¢ $0 11h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL No 46¢ $11 11h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5,895.99 · official $5,896.87 (match) · 1798 history records