Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T04:56:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D2 0xd220…fc0b sports 74 markets active 0h ago coverage 8d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$3,475 (-22%) realized −$3,017 · open −$458
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate38%25W / 41L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$216per market
Trades / day18.0pace
Fees−$125est.
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$873now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$224
7 days−$3,650
14 days−$3,767
30 days−$3,767
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 46% −$1,537
crypto 34% −$1,185
other 20% −$1,503
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-5.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 52 +9.0% -1.4% 35% 35% -39.0%
≤30d 66 +4.7% -5.3% 38% 38% -37.0%
≤90d 66 +4.7% -5.3% 38% 38% -37.0%
all 66 +4.7% -5.3% 38% 38% -37.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover18.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.3% 38% -37.0%
10% -14.3% 33% -43.1%
15% -22.6% 32% -48.6%
20% -30.2% 29% -53.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 30% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -28% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt -28% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +39% → late -29% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$173 vs −$197 · ×0.88 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.53 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage
Net worth$873
Realized−$3,017
Unrealized−$458
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses25 / 41
Est. fees paid−$125
Open positions6
Markets (closed)66 / 74
History coverage8d
Avg bet$216
Trades / day18.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 66 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score Yes 0¢ 38¢ $0 $441 +$441 (+0%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 7¢ $500 $331 −$169 (-34%)
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Yes 29¢ 6¢ $418 $79 −$340 (-81%)
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Türkiye O/U 1.5 Over 45¢ 7¢ $138 $21 −$116 (-84%)
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Over 42¢ 0¢ $200 $0 −$200 (-100%)
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score in First Half Yes 30¢ 0¢ $75 $0 −$75 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 36 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 20 $162 +$64 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 20 $105 −$100 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 20 $27 −$25 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 20 $104 +$65 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 20 $207 +$184 +89%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $164 −$162 -99%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 4.5 Jun 20 $253 −$250 -99%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Saudi Arabia O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $368 −$360 -98%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $184 +$185 +101%
Jeremy Doku: 1+ goals Jun 15 $153 −$150 -98%
Kevin De Bruyne: 1+ goals Jun 15 $153 −$150 -98%
Belgium vs. Egypt: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $464 −$455 -98%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $470 −$469 -100%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $399 −$399 -100%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Cabo Verde O/U 1.5 Corners Jun 15 $203 −$200 -99%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $203 −$200 -99%
Mikel Oyarzabal: 1+ goals Jun 15 $304 −$300 -99%
Ferrán Torres: 1+ goals Jun 15 $101 −$100 -99%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $254 +$314 +124%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $406 +$394 +97%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $152 −$150 -98%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $100 +$150 +150%
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 0 - 0 Ecuador? Jun 15 $143 +$554 +387%
Exact Score: Haiti 0 - 3 Scotland? Jun 14 $95 −$93 -97%
Scott McTominay: 1+ goals Jun 14 $255 −$250 -98%
Haiti vs. Scotland: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $253 −$250 -99%
Haiti vs. Scotland: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 14 $102 −$100 -98%
Haiti vs. Scotland: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $255 −$250 -98%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $203 +$213 +105%
Vinícius Júnior: 1+ goals Jun 14 $153 +$280 +183%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 14 $204 −$196 -96%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $102 −$100 -98%
Raphinha: 1+ goals Jun 13 $153 −$150 -98%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Brazil O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $256 −$250 -98%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Brazil O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $507 −$500 -99%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 13 $26 +$761 +2958%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $125 +$88 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 13 $728 +$157 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 13 $413 +$61 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 13 $413 −$101 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 13 $454 −$454 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 13 $314 −$297 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 13 $207 +$49 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 13 $208 +$36 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 13 $317 −$300 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 13 $104 +$173 +165%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 13 $105 −$100 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 13 $315 +$126 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 13 $211 −$200 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 13 $105 −$3 -3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 42¢ $499 7m
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 36¢ $228 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET SELL Down 59¢ $226 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET BUY Down 41¢ $26 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $5 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $26 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET BUY Down 39¢ $104 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Up 29¢ $105 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET BUY Up 4¢ $27 52m
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 24¢ $199 1h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY Yes 30¢ $77 1h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 42¢ $203 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET SELL Up 68¢ $169 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET BUY Up 39¢ $104 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $103 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $103 1h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 51¢ $164 2h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Türkiye O/U 1.5 BUY Over 45¢ $140 3h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Türkiye O/U 3.5 Corners AND Will Türkiye win on BUY 38¢ $509 3h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 58¢ $253 3h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Saudi Arabia O/U 1.5 BUY Over 28¢ $368 4d
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 49¢ $184 4d
Jeremy Doku: 1+ goals BUY Yes 27¢ $153 4d
Kevin De Bruyne: 1+ goals BUY Yes 28¢ $153 4d
Belgium vs. Egypt: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 32¢ $464 4d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 58¢ $71 4d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 70¢ $399 4d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 57¢ $399 4d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Cabo Verde O/U 1.5 Corners BUY Over 57¢ $203 4d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 56¢ $203 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $872.90 · official $1,438.39 · 170 history records