Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T19:52:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D2 0xd220…9b33 world 89 markets active 0h ago coverage 780d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$91 (-1%) realized −$80 · open −$11
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR20%break-even
Win rate36%27W / 47L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$75per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$43now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3
7 days−$31
14 days−$30
30 days−$32
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 66% −$58
other 20% −$6
politics 8% +$1
economics 3% $0
world 2% −$20
crypto 0% −$7
finance 0% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)-22.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 34 -29.6% -36.3% 29% 18% -26.3%
≤30d 38 -30.0% -36.7% 32% 21% -25.2%
≤90d 40 -27.8% -34.7% 32% 22% -29.4%
all 74 -13.8% -22.0% 36% 20% -10.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -22.0% 20% -10.7%
10% -29.5% 16% -19.2%
15% -36.3% 9% -27.0%
20% -42.6% 7% -34.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 35% · top 2 59% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -22% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
44% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -28% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$3 · ×0.8 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.47 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

780d coverage
Net worth$43
Realized−$80
Unrealized−$11
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses27 / 47
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions15
Markets (closed)74 / 89
History coverage780d
Avg bet$75
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 15 History 74 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Makerfield by-election: Restore Britain receives 10%+? No 48¢ 64¢ $5 $6 +$2 (+36%)
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Yes 84¢ 84¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+0%)
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar? Yes 11¢ 9¢ $6 $5 −$1 (-19%)
Will a player representing Norway be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-6%)
Milwaukee Brewers vs. St. Louis Cardinals Milwaukee Brewers 59¢ 63¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+7%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? No 67¢ 46¢ $6 $4 −$2 (-32%)
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by December 31? No 80¢ 79¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-1%)
Will Jared Kushner attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? No 38¢ 30¢ $3 $3 −$1 (-19%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 4¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-9%)
Will JD Vance attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? No 20¢ 19¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-5%)
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? No 76¢ 76¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Will Spain reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? No 76¢ 76¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will John Healey be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-75%)
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan? Yes 50¢ 1¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-99%)
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals Yes 55¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 17 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $3 $0 -4%
Will Iran close its airspace by August 31? Jun 17 $6 −$1 -11%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? Jun 17 $5 $0 -1%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 17 $9 $0 +4%
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? Jun 17 $14 −$5 -35%
Will Shehbaz Sharif attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? Jun 17 $4 $0 +2%
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? Jun 17 $5 −$3 -53%
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 16 $3 +$1 +32%
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 Jun 16 $5 +$1 +28%
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 16 $6 +$2 +39%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 19? Jun 13 $2 $0 -32%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 13 $4 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 13 $7 −$1 -9%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $1 −$1 -97%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? Jun 13 $9 $0 +2%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? Jun 13 $6 −$1 -18%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 16? Jun 13 $6 −$6 -100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $0 $0 -97%
United States vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Dani Olmo score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $5 $0 -7%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 13 $2 $0 -2%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $6 −$6 -99%
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 11 $6 +$1 +21%
Spread: Chicago Cubs (-4.5) Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Mexico vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score Jun 11 $5 +$2 +42%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 11 $12 +$1 +5%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 11 $5 −$1 -26%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $88 on June 11? Jun 11 $4 −$4 -100%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026? Jun 11 $9 −$1 -13%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 11 $3 $0 -10%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $1 −$1 -97%
Spread: Knicks (-8.5) Jun 11 $3 +$1 +32%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Jun 11 $10 −$1 -11%
Will the price of Solana be above $60 on June 12? Jun 11 $7 −$7 -96%
Dota 2: Level UP vs Yellow Submarine (BO3) - The International Europe Jun 10 $6 +$2 +30%
Cervia: Andrea Guerrieri vs Oleg Prihodko May 19 $7 +$2 +34%
Roland Garros, Qualification ATP: Colton Smith vs Alvaro Guillen Meza May 19 $2 −$2 -98%
Boston Red Sox vs. Kansas City Royals May 19 $3 −$3 -98%
Trail Blazers vs. Suns Apr 14 $50 −$49 -99%
UFC Fight Night: Israel Adesanya vs. Joe Pyfer (Middleweight, Main Car Apr 14 $20 +$25 +127%
Will Girona win the 2025–26 La Liga? Jan 30 $180 $0 -0%
Grizzlies vs. Pelicans Jan 30 $32 −$32 -100%
Sabres vs. Maple Leafs Jan 30 $8 +$8 +104%
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting? Jan 27 $200 $0 -0%
Golden Knights vs. Maple Leafs Jan 27 $20 +$18 +89%
Will Olympiakos win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jan 23 $170 $0 -0%
Will the Denver Broncos win Super Bowl 2026? Jan 21 $176 $0 -0%
UFC 324: Yadong vs. O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main Card) Jan 21 $6 −$6 -100%
Thunder vs. Bucks Jan 21 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Dinorah Figuera be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jan 15 $190 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 58¢ $3 8m
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 59¢ $3 30m
Will JD Vance attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? BUY No 20¢ $1 2h
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY Yes 84¢ $1 2h
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals BUY Yes 55¢ $3 3h
Will Jared Kushner attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? BUY No 38¢ $1 3h
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY Yes 84¢ $1 3h
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals BUY Yes 55¢ $3 3h
Will Jared Kushner attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? BUY No 38¢ $2 3h
Will Jared Kushner attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? BUY No 36¢ $0 3h
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY Yes 84¢ $1 4h
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY Yes 84¢ $2 4h
Will JD Vance attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? BUY No 20¢ $1 4h
Will Spain reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY No 76¢ $1 4h
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY Yes 84¢ $1 4h
Will Iran close its airspace by August 31? SELL No 53¢ $3 5h
Will Iran close its airspace by August 31? SELL No 48¢ $2 5h
Will Iran close its airspace by August 31? BUY No 55¢ $3 6h
Will Iran close its airspace by August 31? BUY No 59¢ $3 6h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? SELL Yes 91¢ $2 7h
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? SELL Yes 86¢ $6 7h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 92¢ $2 8h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? SELL No 58¢ $2 9h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? BUY No 62¢ $3 9h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? SELL Yes 47¢ $5 10h
Will Shehbaz Sharif attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? SELL Yes 81¢ $4 10h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? BUY Yes 42¢ $2 10h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? BUY Yes 71¢ $4 11h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? SELL No 26¢ $1 11h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? SELL No 25¢ $1 11h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $43.09 · official $43.09 (match) · 240 history records