Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T17:13:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D2 0xd221…4331 weather 30 markets active 1h ago coverage 2d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable weather specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$22 (-3%) realized −$22 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate0%0W / 30L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$22per market
Trades / day44.2pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 100% −$50
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-15.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 30 -6.6% -15.5% 0% 0% -16.5%
≤30d 30 -6.6% -15.5% 0% 0% -16.5%
≤90d 30 -6.6% -15.5% 0% 0% -16.5%
all 30 -6.6% -15.5% 0% 0% -16.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover44.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -15.5% 0% -16.5%
10% ← realistic here -23.6% 0% -24.5%
15% -31.0% 0% -31.8%
20% -37.7% 0% -38.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top —% · top 2 —% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
—% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late -10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
— vs −$2 no data
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$22
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)0%
Wins / losses0 / 30
Open positions0
Markets (closed)30 / 30
History coverage2d
Avg bet$22
Trades / day44.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 30 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 20? Jun 19 $0 $0 -4%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 20? Jun 19 $18 −$13 -72%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 20? Jun 19 $29 −$1 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on June 20? Jun 19 $4 $0 -5%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on June Jun 19 $65 −$5 -8%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 92-93°F on June 19? Jun 19 $11 $0 -3%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on Ju Jun 19 $83 −$13 -16%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 82-83°F on June 19? Jun 19 $1 $0 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 90-91°F on June 19? Jun 19 $6 $0 -6%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on Ju Jun 19 $46 −$2 -4%
Will the highest temperature in London be 30°C on June 19? Jun 19 $20 −$1 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 37°C on June 19? Jun 19 $24 −$1 -5%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on June 19? Jun 19 $28 −$1 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 19? Jun 18 $34 −$1 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 33°C on June 19? Jun 18 $32 −$1 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 19? Jun 18 $28 −$1 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 19? Jun 18 $12 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 19? Jun 18 $1 $0 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 18? Jun 18 $15 $0 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on June 18? Jun 18 $28 −$3 -11%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 18? Jun 17 $28 −$2 -8%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 18? Jun 17 $34 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 18? Jun 17 $16 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on Ju Jun 17 $16 −$1 -6%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on Ju Jun 17 $31 −$1 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on June Jun 17 $2 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 74-75°F on June 17? Jun 17 $5 $0 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 88-89°F on June 17? Jun 17 $14 $0 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 17? Jun 17 $6 $0 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 17? Jun 17 $12 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 20? SELL Yes 30¢ $0 34m
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 20? BUY Yes 30¢ $0 34m
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 20? SELL No 6¢ $1 1h
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 20? SELL No 13¢ $4 1h
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 20? BUY No 35¢ $18 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 20? SELL No 58¢ $28 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 20? BUY No 59¢ $4 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 20? BUY No 59¢ $25 1h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on June 20? SELL No 40¢ $4 3h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on June 20? BUY No 41¢ $4 3h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on June SELL No 65¢ $6 4h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on June SELL No 65¢ $19 4h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on June BUY No 66¢ $7 4h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on June BUY No 66¢ $7 4h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on June SELL No 66¢ $5 4h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on June BUY No 66¢ $7 4h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on June BUY No 66¢ $7 4h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on June BUY No 66¢ $5 4h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on June SELL Yes 29¢ $6 4h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on June SELL Yes 29¢ $8 4h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on June BUY Yes 31¢ $16 4h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on June SELL Yes 32¢ $15 4h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on June BUY Yes 36¢ $18 4h
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 92-93°F on June 19? SELL No 45¢ $11 4h
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 92-93°F on June 19? BUY No 45¢ $11 4h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on Ju SELL Yes 19¢ $1 5h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on Ju SELL Yes 21¢ $4 5h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on Ju SELL Yes 22¢ $1 5h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on Ju SELL Yes 18¢ $2 5h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on Ju SELL Yes 33¢ $16 5h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 112 history records