Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T12:25:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
D2 0xd225…efc0 sports 125 markets active 8h ago coverage 67d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$27 (+20%) realized +$26 · open +$1
Gross ROI / mkt +9% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -1% what you keep after slip
Net edge-1%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate46%56W / 65L
Drawdown67%max
Avg bet$1per market
Trades / day2.0pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit66%portable
Net worth$5now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days−$37
14 days−$30
30 days−$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 63% +$8
other 35% +$17
world 1% −$1
crypto 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-1.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 63 -57.3% -61.4% 17% 17% -61.4%
≤30d 75 -19.6% -27.3% 29% 29% -15.9%
≤90d 121 +9.0% -1.4% 46% 45% +7.1%
all 121 +9.0% -1.4% 46% 45% +7.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -1.4% 45% +7.1%
10% -10.8% 45% -3.1%
15% -19.5% 40% -12.5%
20% -27.4% 35% -21.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 20% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +18% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +9% · $-wt +18% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +84% → late -65% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$1 · ×1.6 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.38 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

67d coverage
Net worth$5
Realized+$26
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses56 / 65
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions4
Markets (closed)121 / 125
History coverage67d
Avg bet$1
Trades / day2.0
Drawdown67%
Kalshi-fit66%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 121 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1 $1 +$0 (+41%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 20¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+23%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1 $1 +$0 (+2%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 14¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-15%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Tunisia vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 21 $1 +$1 +50%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score Jun 21 $1 +$1 +52%
Spread: Ecuador (-2.5) Jun 21 $1 $0 -38%
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $1 −$1 -99%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $1 +$1 +57%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $1 −$1 -98%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $1 +$1 +79%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $1 +$1 +109%
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 19 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Sevilla FC vs. Real Sociedad de Fútbol end in a draw? Jun 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Hamburger SV vs. SC Freiburg end in a draw? Jun 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Will SC Braga vs. SC Freiburg end in a draw? Jun 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Athletic Club vs. Valencia CF end in a draw? Jun 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Will AFC Ajax vs. FC Utrecht end in a draw? Jun 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Nottingham Forest FC vs. Aston Villa FC end in a draw? Jun 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Crystal Palace FC vs. Rayo Vallecano de Madrid end in a draw? Jun 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Deportivo Alavés vs. Rayo Vallecano de Madrid end in a draw? Jun 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-05-10? Jun 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-06? Jun 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Will AC Milan vs. Atalanta BC end in a draw? Jun 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Real Oviedo vs. Deportivo Alavés end in a draw? Jun 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Will FC Lorient vs. Le Havre AC end in a draw? Jun 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Will CA Osasuna vs. Club Atlético de Madrid end in a draw? Jun 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Will 1. FC Köln vs. 1. FC Heidenheim 1846 end in a draw? Jun 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Leeds United FC vs. Brighton & Hove Albion FC end in a draw? Jun 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC vs. Everton FC end in a draw? Jun 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Aston Villa FC vs. Liverpool FC end in a draw? Jun 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Sunderland AFC vs. Chelsea FC end in a draw? Jun 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Will SC Freiburg vs. SC Braga end in a draw? Jun 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Will SS Lazio vs. FC Internazionale Milano end in a draw? Jun 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Aston Villa FC vs. Nottingham Forest FC end in a draw? Jun 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Will West Ham United FC vs. Arsenal FC end in a draw? Jun 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Will RC Celta de Vigo vs. Levante UD end in a draw? Jun 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Real Betis Balompié vs. Elche CF end in a draw? Jun 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Will West Ham United FC vs. Leeds United FC end in a draw? Jun 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Arsenal FC vs. Club Atlético de Madrid end in a draw? Jun 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Brighton & Hove Albion FC vs. Manchester United FC end in a draw? Jun 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Will 1. FC Heidenheim 1846 vs. 1. FSV Mainz 05 end in a draw? Jun 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Will SSC Napoli vs. Bologna FC 1909 end in a draw? Jun 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Will SS Lazio vs. Pisa SC end in a draw? Jun 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Borussia Mönchengladbach vs. TSG 1899 Hoffenheim end in a draw? Jun 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Jun 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Leeds United FC vs. Burnley FC end in a draw? Jun 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Tunisia vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score BUY No 66¢ $1 7h
Spread: Ecuador (-2.5) SELL Ecuador 26¢ $1 11h
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 55¢ $1 12h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score BUY No 65¢ $1 13h
Spread: Ecuador (-2.5) BUY Ecuador 40¢ $1 13h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 41¢ $1 21h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 63¢ $1 21h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 55¢ $1 46h
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $1 46h
United States vs. Australia: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 41¢ $1 2d
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 47¢ $1 2d
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? SELL Yes 10¢ $0 2d
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 31¢ $1 2d
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $1 3d
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $1 3d
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $1 3d
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $1 3d
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $1 3d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 64¢ $1 4d
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 4d
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $1 4d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 12¢ $0 5d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 50¢ $1 5d
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 46¢ $1 5d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 20¢ $0 5d
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $1 6d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 62¢ $1 6d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 52¢ $1 6d
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? BUY Yes 34¢ $1 6d
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $1 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4.52 · official $4.52 (match) · 244 history records