Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T15:47:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
D2 0xd226…35ac sports 132 markets active 1h ago coverage 65d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover
Total PnL +$5,542 (+12%) realized +$5,811 · open −$269
Gross ROI / mkt +20% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -0% what you keep after slip
Net edge-0%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate62%75W / 46L
Whale WR76%big bets
Drawdown23%max
Avg bet$342per market
Trades / day14.6pace
Fees−$25est.
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$2,873now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$403
7 days+$1,739
14 days+$1,751
30 days+$2,089
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 42% +$2,585
finance 39% +$877
other 15% +$1,550
sports 5% −$798
crypto 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)+8.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 33 +10.3% -0.2% 55% 52% +13.0%
≤30d 46 +48.7% +34.5% 57% 48% +5.5%
≤90d 121 +19.6% +8.2% 62% 45% +1.2%
all 121 +19.6% +8.2% 62% 45% +1.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover14.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +8.2% 45% +1.2%
10% -2.1% 31% -8.5%
15% -11.6% 22% -17.3%
20% -20.3% 18% -25.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 24% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +12% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
28% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +20% · $-wt +12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 76% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +9% → late +30% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
5.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$95 vs −$59 · ×1.61 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.69 per $1 lost it wins $2.69
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

65d coverage
Net worth$2,873
Realized+$5,811
Unrealized−$269
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses75 / 46
Whale WR (big bets)76%
Est. fees paid−$25
Open positions7
Markets (closed)121 / 132
History coverage65d
Avg bet$342
Trades / day14.6
Drawdown23%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 121 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? Yes 75¢ 86¢ $909 $1,043 +$134 (+15%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $75 by end of June? Yes 77¢ 62¢ $1,196 $953 −$243 (-20%)
Will J.D. Vance attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? Yes 76¢ 83¢ $451 $491 +$40 (+9%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in June? Yes 33¢ 22¢ $254 $174 −$80 (-32%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? Yes 23¢ 14¢ $196 $117 −$79 (-40%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $85 in June? No 72¢ 64¢ $108 $95 −$13 (-12%)
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London Playoffs EDward Gaming 25¢ $27 $0 −$27 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? Jun 20 $1,563 +$335 +21%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $22 +$17 +79%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $11 +$8 +67%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $5 +$3 +65%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof Jun 19 $47 +$23 +49%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in the United States? Jun 19 $1 +$4 +401%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $80 in June? Jun 19 $77 +$3 +4%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $52 +$10 +20%
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 2 Colombia? Jun 18 $5 +$4 +82%
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 0 - 2 Colombia? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 0 - 1 Colombia? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 3 Colombia? Jun 18 $5 +$11 +204%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 18 $38 −$37 -97%
Exact Score: England 1 - 1 Croatia? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: England 2 - 1 Croatia? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: England 2 - 0 Croatia? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 1 DR Congo? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 DR Congo? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $51 −$46 -89%
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by end of June? Jun 17 $1,491 +$459 +31%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $75 in June? Jun 17 $385 +$130 +34%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? A Jun 17 $9 +$14 +154%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $3 +$8 +250%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $2 +$1 +46%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $14 −$12 -84%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $11 +$3 +33%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $18 −$5 -26%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $33 −$28 -85%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $14 −$13 -92%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in June? Jun 15 $8 +$11 +144%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $57 −$57 -100%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 15 $3,012 +$932 +31%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $85 by end of June? Jun 13 $86 +$7 +8%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $11 +$10 +94%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? Jun 09 $15 −$5 -34%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? Jun 09 $1 −$1 -36%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7? Jun 06 $322 −$307 -95%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in May? Jun 02 $0 +$1 +4900%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in May? May 29 $1,040 +$190 +18%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in May? May 27 $1,100 +$67 +6%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $90 in May? May 27 $936 +$264 +28%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in May? May 27 $1,228 +$35 +3%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 27 $22 −$22 -100%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? May 25 $101 −$7 -7%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $90 in May? May 25 $758 +$116 +15%
Spread: Thunder (-8.5) May 21 $51 −$51 -100%
Spread: Thunder (-11.5) May 21 $33 +$13 +38%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $95 in May? May 21 $69 +$15 +21%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in May? May 18 $654 −$181 -28%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will J.D. Vance attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? BUY Yes 76¢ $451 53m
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? SELL Yes 90¢ $451 53m
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? BUY Yes 82¢ $10 1h
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London BUY EDward Gaming 25¢ $28 1h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? SELL Yes 83¢ $38 1h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? BUY Yes 75¢ $1,308 1h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $75 by end of June? BUY Yes 58¢ $29 2h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? SELL No 41¢ $23 2h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $75 by end of June? BUY Yes 60¢ $8 2h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? BUY No 46¢ $26 2h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $75 by end of June? BUY Yes 60¢ $26 2h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in June? BUY Yes 24¢ $24 2h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $85 in June? BUY No 71¢ $71 2h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? SELL No 69¢ $582 2h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? BUY No 60¢ $89 2h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? BUY No 60¢ $31 3h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? BUY No 66¢ $49 3h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? BUY Yes 19¢ $19 8h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? BUY Yes 21¢ $21 8h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? BUY No 66¢ $0 8h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? BUY No 66¢ $24 8h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? BUY No 66¢ $60 8h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? BUY No 70¢ $30 8h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? BUY No 70¢ $29 8h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? BUY No 70¢ $3 9h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? BUY No 70¢ $6 9h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? BUY No 70¢ $1 9h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? BUY No 70¢ $141 9h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? BUY No 66¢ $0 9h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? BUY No 66¢ $0 9h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,873.03 · official $2,889.51 (match) · 1025 history records