Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T17:23:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D2 0xd229…fcd6 weather 1019 markets active 0h ago coverage 64d ⚠
BOTnot copyable weather specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 63d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (53 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$5,205 (+44%) realized +$4,734 · open +$471
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -60% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -69% what you keep after slip
Net edge-69%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate7%87W / 1237L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$12per market
Trades / day53.0pace
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$1,404now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 64d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 51% +$870
world 34% +$590
other 12% +$168
crypto 2% +$136
tech 0% −$34
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (53 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-63.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 426 -95.9% -96.2% 2% 1% -78.4%
≤30d 605 -66.1% -69.4% 6% 6% -11.3%
≤90d 1324 -60.1% -63.9% 7% 6% -15.4%
all 1324 -60.1% -63.9% 7% 6% -15.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover53.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -63.9% 6% -15.4%
10% ← realistic here -67.4% 5% -23.5%
15% -70.5% 5% -30.9%
20% -73.4% 4% -37.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -60% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -51% → late -69% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$56 vs −$4 · ×12.5 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.88 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

64d coverage
Net worth$1,404
Realized+$4,734
Unrealized+$471
Win rate (resolved)7%
Wins / losses87 / 1237
Open positions10
Markets (closed)1324 / 1019
History coverage64d ⚠
Avg bet$12
Trades / day53.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 10 History 1324 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No 64¢ 97¢ $256 $387 +$131 (+51%)
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? No 60¢ 90¢ $210 $317 +$107 (+51%)
Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? No 36¢ 86¢ $126 $299 +$173 (+138%)
Opensea FDV above $500M one day after launch? No 12¢ 59¢ $24 $119 +$95 (+398%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 32°C or below on June 23? Yes 96¢ 99¢ $96 $99 +$3 (+3%)
Huddle FDV above $10M one day after launch? No 20¢ 64¢ $26 $82 +$56 (+217%)
Will GameStop acquire eBay? Yes 15¢ 12¢ $68 $56 −$11 (-17%)
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 70-71°F on June 23? Yes 87¢ 87¢ $44 $44 +$0 (+1%)
Will Discord’s market cap be $30B or greater at market close on IPO day? Yes 8¢ 0¢ $84 $2 −$82 (-98%)
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 22°C on June 23? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-50%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 490 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 35-36°F on De Jun 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 23°F or below on February 1 Jun 23 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be -6°C on February 9? Jun 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 69°F or below on February 24 Jun 23 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be -7°C or below on January 11? Jun 23 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 63°F or higher on Oct Jun 23 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 7°C on February 20? Jun 23 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 0°C on March 6? Jun 23 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be between 76-77°F on August 5? Jun 23 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 74-75°F on February Jun 23 $15 −$15 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 64-65°F on January 30 Jun 23 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 37°C on December 18? Jun 23 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 28°C or below on Febru Jun 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be 70°F or higher on January 27? Jun 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 9°C on March 28? Jun 23 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 68-69°F on March 17? Jun 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 19°C on March 5? Jun 23 $28 −$28 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 35°C or higher on March 2 Jun 23 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 21°C on January 28? Jun 23 $13 −$13 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 28°C on March 18? Jun 23 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 15°C on April 1? Jun 23 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 12°C on March 30? Jun 23 $22 −$22 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on February 3? Jun 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be between 50-51°F on December Jun 23 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 60-61°F on February Jun 23 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on Ju Jun 23 $13 −$13 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be between 70-71°F on July 22? Jun 23 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be between 59-60°F on September Jun 23 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be between 51-52°F on October 1 Jun 23 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 7°C on January 27? Jun 23 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be between 68-69°F on August 18 Jun 23 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be 88°F or higher on February 21 Jun 23 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on Ju Jun 23 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be between 61-62°F on October 8 Jun 23 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 78-79°F on February 1 Jun 23 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 24-25°F on February Jun 23 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be -6°C or below on February 2 Jun 23 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on Ju Jun 23 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 4°C on February 16? Jun 23 $13 −$13 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be between 87-88°F on July 18? Jun 23 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 45-46°F on No Jun 23 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 26°C on February 25? Jun 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C on February 10? Jun 23 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 1°C on February 10? Jun 23 $16 −$16 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 23°C on March 6? Jun 23 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 41-42°F on No Jun 23 $9 −$9 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 50-51°F on February Jun 23 $12 −$12 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 20-21°F on Ja Jun 23 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 20°C on February 10? Jun 23 $26 −$26 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 4°C on March 20? Jun 23 $0 $0 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 22°C on June 23? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 18m
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 22°C on June 23? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 21m
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 22°C on June 23? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 21m
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 70-71°F on Ju BUY Yes 87¢ $44 1h
Will the highest temperature in London be 32°C or below on June 23? BUY Yes 96¢ $96 1h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 20°C or below on June 22? BUY Yes 79¢ $63 23h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 22? BUY Yes 79¢ $40 23h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on Ju BUY Yes 73¢ $37 24h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 38°C on June 22? BUY Yes 50¢ $2 30h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 38°C on June 22? BUY Yes 50¢ $2 30h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 38°C on June 22? BUY Yes 50¢ $10 30h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 38°C on June 22? BUY Yes 50¢ $2 30h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 38°C on June 22? BUY Yes 50¢ $2 30h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 38°C on June 22? BUY Yes 50¢ $3 30h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 84-85°F on June 19? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 3d
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 84-85°F on June 19? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 3d
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 84-85°F on June 19? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 3d
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 86-87°F on June 19? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 3d
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 84-85°F on June 19? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 3d
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 84-85°F on June 19? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 3d
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 86-87°F on June 19? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 3d
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 86-87°F on June 19? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 3d
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 86-87°F on June 19? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 3d
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 76-77°F on June 19? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 3d
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 25°C on June 19? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 3d
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 88-89°F on June 19? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 3d
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 24°C on June 19? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 3d
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 16°C on June 19? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 3d
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 16°C on June 19? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 3d
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 16°C on June 19? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,403.85 · official $1,403.85 (match) · 3500 history records