Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T17:58:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
D2 0xd229…6c92 sports 18 markets active 2h ago coverage 8d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$76 (-15%) realized −$75 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -35% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -41% what you keep after slip
Net edge-41%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate31%5W / 11L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$28per market
Trades / day2.7pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$104now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4
7 days−$18
14 days−$82
30 days−$82
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% −$83
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-41.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 -20.1% -27.7% 38% 38% -14.4%
≤30d 16 -35.1% -41.3% 31% 31% -28.1%
≤90d 16 -35.1% -41.3% 31% 31% -28.1%
all 16 -35.1% -41.3% 31% 31% -28.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -41.3% 31% -28.1%
10% -46.9% 31% -35.0%
15% -52.0% 31% -41.2%
20% -56.7% 31% -47.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 48% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -20% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -35% · $-wt -20% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -36% → late -34% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$23 vs −$18 · ×1.28 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.58 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage
Net worth$104
Realized−$75
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)31%
Wins / losses5 / 11
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions2
Markets (closed)16 / 18
History coverage8d
Avg bet$28
Trades / day2.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 16 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Washington Nationals vs. Tampa Bay Rays Tampa Bay Rays 54¢ 54¢ $61 $61 −$1 (-1%)
San Diego Padres vs. Texas Rangers Texas Rangers 61¢ 60¢ $44 $44 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 19 $34 −$34 -100%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 18 $26 +$30 +112%
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros Jun 17 $11 −$11 -100%
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals Jun 17 $19 −$19 -100%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics Jun 17 $14 +$17 +124%
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 16 $13 −$13 -100%
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros Jun 16 $67 −$6 -9%
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics Jun 14 $26 −$26 -100%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 13 $43 +$22 +52%
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics Jun 13 $4 −$4 -100%
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 13 $20 −$20 -100%
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 13 $35 +$25 +73%
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians Jun 13 $25 +$21 +86%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 12 $15 −$15 -100%
Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies Jun 12 $20 −$20 -100%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins Jun 12 $29 −$29 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
San Diego Padres vs. Texas Rangers BUY Texas Rangers 61¢ $44 1h
Washington Nationals vs. Tampa Bay Rays BUY Tampa Bay Rays 54¢ $62 2h
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Toronto Blue Jays 45¢ $9 25h
New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies BUY Philadelphia Phillies 53¢ $34 28h
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Toronto Blue Jays 47¢ $18 29h
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros BUY Detroit Tigers 39¢ $11 2d
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics BUY Pittsburgh Pirates 44¢ $14 2d
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals BUY San Diego Padres 49¢ $19 3d
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros BUY Detroit Tigers 46¢ $11 4d
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros BUY Houston Astros 55¢ $38 4d
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros BUY Detroit Tigers 46¢ $18 4d
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies BUY Miami Marlins 35¢ $13 4d
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics BUY Colorado Rockies 41¢ $10 6d
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 65¢ $43 6d
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics BUY Colorado Rockies 40¢ $16 6d
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics BUY Colorado Rockies 35¢ $4 6d
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians BUY Cleveland Guardians 53¢ $25 7d
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles BUY Baltimore Orioles 57¢ $35 7d
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals BUY Kansas City Royals 49¢ $20 7d
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates BUY Pittsburgh Pirates 40¢ $15 8d
Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies BUY Colorado Rockies 43¢ $20 8d
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins BUY Arizona Diamondbacks 48¢ $29 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $104.26 · official $104.26 (match) · 38 history records