Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T21:28:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5

score

D2 0xd22e…ac82 other 5 markets active 2h ago coverage 3d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage

Total PnL +$8 (+4%) realized +$7 · open +$1

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip

Net edge-17%after slip

Net WR67%break-even

Win rate67%2W / 1L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$37per market

Trades / day1.5pace

Kalshi-fit0%portable

Net worth$86now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +67%

net ROI/market (all)-17.4%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	3	-8.7%	-17.4%	67%	67%	+0.6%
≤30d	3	-8.7%	-17.4%	67%	67%	+0.6%
≤90d	3	-8.7%	-17.4%	67%	67%	+0.6%
all	3	-8.7%	-17.4%	67%	67%	+0.6%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover1.5 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-17.4%	67%	+0.6%
10%	-25.3%	33%	-9.0%
15%	-32.5%	33%	-17.8%
20%	-39.1%	33%	-25.9%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 75% · top 2 100% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +11% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -9% · $-wt +11% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$13 vs −$14 · ×0.88 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×1.77 per $1 lost it wins $1.77

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage

Net worth$86

Realized+$7

Unrealized+$1

Win rate (resolved)67%

Wins / losses2 / 1

Open positions2

Markets (closed)3 / 5

History coverage3d

Avg bet$37

Trades / day1.5

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit0%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 2 History 3 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will France win on 2026-06-22?	Yes	92¢	98¢	$55	$59	+$4 (+6%)
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25?	No	82¢	74¢	$30	$27	−$3 (-9%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21?	Jun 22	$54	+$6	+12%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19?	Jun 21	$30	+$19	+62%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21?	Jun 20	$14	−$14	-99%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will France win on 2026-06-22?	BUY Yes	92¢	$55	1h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	89¢	$54	30h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	68¢	$14	2d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25?	BUY No	82¢	$30	3d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	61¢	$30	3d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $86.03 · official $86.27 (match) · 7 history records