Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T22:03:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D2 0xd22e…7e95 other 19 markets active 0h ago coverage 112d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$116 (-12%) realized −$103 · open −$13
Gross ROI / mkt -24% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -31% what you keep after slip
Net edge-31%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate33%6W / 12L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$52per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit58%portable
Net worth$20now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$23
7 days+$81
14 days+$81
30 days+$81
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 54% +$151
sports 24% −$83
politics 11% −$99
finance 10% −$100
world 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-31.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 -3.4% -12.6% 43% 43% +0.5%
≤30d 14 -3.4% -12.6% 43% 43% +0.5%
≤90d 14 -3.4% -12.6% 43% 43% +0.5%
all 18 -23.8% -31.0% 33% 33% -20.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -31.0% 33% -20.8%
10% -37.6% 33% -28.4%
15% -43.7% 28% -35.3%
20% -49.2% 28% -41.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 33% · top 2 54% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +11% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -24% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -67% → late +19% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$50 vs −$35 · ×1.43 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.72 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

112d coverage
Net worth$20
Realized−$103
Unrealized−$13
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses6 / 12
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions1
Markets (closed)18 / 19
History coverage112d
Avg bet$52
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit58%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 18 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
France vs. Iraq: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Over 50¢ 30¢ $33 $20 −$13 (-40%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 22 $47 −$13 -29%
Argentina vs. Austria: Argentina O/U 1.5 Jun 22 $20 +$16 +83%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $57 −$57 -100%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score Jun 22 $48 +$52 +109%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $49 −$48 -99%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $10 +$35 +342%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $147 +$99 +67%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $115 +$62 +55%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Algeria O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $62 −$61 -99%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $142 +$34 +24%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $85 by end of March? Mar 10 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31? Mar 07 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Communist Party of Nepal (UML) win the second-most seats in the N Mar 07 $11 −$10 -91%
Will Nepali Congress win the most seats in the Nepal House of Represen Mar 06 $100 −$88 -89%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
France vs. Iraq: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Over 50¢ $22 22m
France vs. Iraq: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Over 50¢ $11 22m
Exact Score: Any Other Score? SELL Yes 34¢ $33 24m
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 46¢ $47 1h
Argentina vs. Austria: Argentina O/U 1.5 BUY Over 48¢ $10 3h
Argentina vs. Austria: Argentina O/U 1.5 BUY Over 62¢ $10 4h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 47¢ $48 22h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 56¢ $57 24h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 69¢ $49 44h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes $2 45h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes $1 45h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes $5 45h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 36¢ $5 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 16¢ $5 2d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 59¢ $147 3d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 20¢ $10 3d
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? BUY Yes 18¢ $10 4d
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $10 4d
Argentina vs. Algeria: Algeria O/U 0.5 BUY Over 54¢ $10 5d
Argentina vs. Algeria: Algeria O/U 0.5 BUY Over 54¢ $23 5d
Argentina vs. Algeria: Algeria O/U 0.5 BUY Over 54¢ $29 5d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 64¢ $115 5d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $177 5d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 80¢ $142 5d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $85 by end of March? BUY No 27¢ $1 104d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $85 by end of March? BUY No 27¢ $38 104d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $85 by end of March? BUY No 26¢ $8 104d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $85 by end of March? BUY No 25¢ $1 104d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $85 by end of March? BUY No 25¢ $40 104d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $85 by end of March? BUY No 24¢ $12 104d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $19.80 · official $19.80 (match) · 45 history records