Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T17:28:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D2 0xd232…30d4 other 206 markets active 2h ago coverage 92d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$16 (-1%) realized −$16 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate44%90W / 113L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$7per market
Trades / day7.2pace
Kalshi-fit50%portable
Net worth$19now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$12
7 days−$71
14 days−$51
30 days−$52
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 73% −$39
weather 23% −$21
crypto 4% −$4
politics 0% $0
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-16.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -57.8% -61.8% 14% 14% -42.7%
≤30d 35 -21.7% -29.2% 34% 29% -16.1%
≤90d 176 -10.4% -18.9% 39% 35% -12.8%
all 203 -7.5% -16.3% 44% 35% -12.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.3% 35% -12.7%
10% -24.3% 29% -21.1%
15% -31.6% 20% -28.7%
20% -38.3% 17% -35.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late -9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$4 · ×1.09 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.87 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

92d coverage
Net worth$19
Realized−$16
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses90 / 113
Open positions3
Markets (closed)203 / 206
History coverage92d
Avg bet$7
Trades / day7.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 203 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Yes 27¢ 30¢ $7 $8 +$1 (+13%)
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Yes 34¢ 30¢ $9 $8 −$1 (-10%)
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Yes 12¢ 12¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 10 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 15 $11 −$10 -97%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 15 $22 −$2 -8%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 14 $12 −$11 -85%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 13 $16 −$15 -96%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $62 +$19 +30%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $43 −$34 -79%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $28 −$18 -63%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $21 +$18 +86%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $20 +$11 +54%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $5 −$3 -53%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 07 $11 −$8 -75%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 4 to June 6, 2026? Jun 06 $41 +$9 +23%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 4 to June 6, 2026? Jun 06 $42 −$21 -50%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 06 $16 +$23 +140%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 05 $15 −$4 -29%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 4 to June 6, 2026? Jun 05 $1 −$1 -95%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 05 $32 +$28 +88%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 04 $22 −$17 -77%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 03 $21 −$16 -76%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 01 $17 −$16 -97%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 01 $8 +$1 +9%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 01 $12 −$3 -22%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 30 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? May 29 $4 $0 -12%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 29 $39 +$19 +49%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 29 $23 −$7 -32%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 28 $10 −$5 -54%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 25 to May 27, 2026? May 27 $20 +$5 +25%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 25 to May 27, 2026? May 27 $7 −$2 -27%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 26 $7 +$1 +21%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 26 $7 +$16 +219%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 26 $5 −$4 -81%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 24 $4 $0 +5%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 22 $1 −$1 -65%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 22 $4 −$4 -96%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026? May 12 $7 −$1 -9%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026? May 12 $19 +$6 +33%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026? May 12 $7 −$7 -93%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 7 to May 9, 2026? May 09 $4 +$7 +186%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 7 to May 9, 2026? May 09 $9 −$6 -70%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? May 08 $5 +$8 +148%
Will White House post 160-179 posts from May 1 to May 8, 2026? May 08 $1 −$1 -94%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? May 06 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 4 to May 6, 2026? May 06 $8 −$5 -64%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 4 to May 6, 2026? May 06 $5 +$7 +149%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from May 4 to May 6, 2026? May 06 $1 −$1 -79%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026? May 05 $12 −$11 -88%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026? May 05 $5 +$1 +15%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 2 to May 4, 2026? May 04 $18 +$1 +4%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from May 2 to May 4, 2026? May 04 $5 +$1 +13%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $3 1h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 27¢ $7 1h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 34¢ $9 1h
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 36¢ $11 26h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL Yes 13¢ $7 26h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL Yes 3¢ $2 2d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 21¢ $12 3d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 27¢ $16 3d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL Yes 29¢ $13 3d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 20¢ $22 4d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL Yes 100¢ $35 4d
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 4d
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 4d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 94¢ $33 4d
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 39¢ $12 4d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL Yes 53¢ $45 4d
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 28¢ $5 4d
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 14¢ $6 4d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL Yes 18¢ $10 4d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 47¢ $28 5d
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $5 5d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 32¢ $3 7d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 32¢ $4 7d
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 20¢ $19 7d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 32¢ $22 7d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? SELL Yes 99¢ $10 7d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? BUY Yes 45¢ $5 7d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? SELL Yes 51¢ $5 7d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? SELL Yes 51¢ $13 7d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? SELL Yes 48¢ $28 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $18.91 · official $18.65 (match) · 714 history records