Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T04:28:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
D2 0xd235…6eeb sports 1090 markets active 1h ago coverage 218d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$4,859 (+11%) realized +$4,859 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate38%407W / 665L
Drawdown40%max
Avg bet$39per market
Trades / day8.4pace
Fees−$169est.
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$639
7 days+$962
14 days+$1,360
30 days+$947
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 66% +$2,582
other 34% +$2,469
world 0% +$28
crypto 0% +$41
politics 0% −$9
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-1.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 35 -1.4% -10.8% 26% 26% +48.1%
≤30d 77 +1.7% -8.0% 27% 27% +16.3%
≤90d 349 +5.5% -4.5% 28% 28% +1.2%
all 1072 +9.3% -1.1% 38% 38% +1.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -1.1% 38% +1.0%
10% -10.6% 38% -8.6%
15% -19.2% 38% -17.5%
20% -27.1% 37% -25.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +13% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +9% · $-wt +12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +13% → late +6% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$72 vs −$37 · ×1.98 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.21 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

218d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$4,859
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses407 / 665
Est. fees paid−$169
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1072 / 1090
History coverage218d
Avg bet$39
Trades / day8.4
Drawdown40%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1072 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Lionel Messi: 1+ goals AND Will Algeria vs. Austria end in a draw? Jun 28 $41 +$181 +442%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $65 +$275 +426%
Croatia vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5 Jun 27 $50 +$197 +395%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $15 −$15 -100%
Spread: Côte d'Ivoire (-2.5) Jun 25 $50 −$50 -100%
Deniz Undav: 2+ goals Jun 25 $13 −$13 -100%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $5 −$5 -100%
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Jun 25 $40 −$40 -100%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $30 −$30 -100%
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 Jun 25 $40 −$40 -100%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $9 −$9 -100%
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 5.5 Jun 25 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $25 −$25 -100%
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) Jun 25 $194 +$476 +246%
Panama vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Jun 24 $27 −$27 -100%
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 Jun 24 $72 −$72 -100%
England vs. Ghana: Both Teams to Score Jun 23 $20 −$20 -100%
England vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $40 −$40 -100%
England vs. Ghana: O/U 1.5 Jun 23 $30 −$30 -100%
Harry Kane: 2+ goals Jun 23 $54 −$54 -100%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Both Teams to Score Jun 23 $7 −$7 -100%
Spread: Portugal (-4.5) Jun 23 $54 +$83 +153%
Spread: Algeria (-1.5) Jun 23 $38 −$38 -100%
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $60 +$61 +102%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $40 +$131 +328%
Spread: France (-2.5) Jun 23 $140 +$259 +186%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Both Teams to Score Jun 21 $29 −$29 -100%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $100 −$100 -100%
Tunisia vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 21 $40 −$40 -100%
Spread: Spain (-5.5) Jun 21 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $7 −$7 -100%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score Jun 21 $27 −$2 -8%
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 Jun 21 $50 +$91 +183%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $27 −$27 -100%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $128 +$408 +318%
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $39 −$39 -100%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $49 −$49 -100%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 6.5 Jun 19 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $20 −$20 -100%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $49 −$49 -100%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $30 +$103 +345%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $49 +$91 +185%
Czechia vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $50 +$68 +136%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $30 −$30 -100%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $64 −$64 -100%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Spread: Argentina (-2.5) Jun 17 $20 +$95 +478%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $44 +$65 +147%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Lionel Messi: 1+ goals AND Will Algeria vs. Austria end in a draw? SELL 94¢ $222 30m
Lionel Messi: 1+ goals AND Will Algeria vs. Austria end in a draw? BUY 17¢ $41 1h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 100¢ $340 2h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 19¢ $65 3h
Colombia vs. Portugal: Both Teams to Score AND Will DR Congo win on 20 BUY 9¢ $25 4h
DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 2.5 AND Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals AND D BUY 9¢ $21 5h
Croatia vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 99¢ $247 5h
Croatia vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 20¢ $4 6h
Croatia vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 20¢ $38 6h
Croatia vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 20¢ $0 6h
Croatia vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 20¢ $6 6h
Croatia vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 20¢ $1 6h
Harry Kane: 2+ goals AND Luis Díaz: 1+ goals AND Lionel Messi: 1+ goal BUY 1¢ $11 8h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? AND Will Algeria vs. Austria end in a d BUY 4¢ $25 11h
Cristiano Ronaldo: 2+ goals AND Harry Kane: 2+ goals AND Lionel Messi: BUY 3¢ $21 11h
Croatia vs. Ghana: Both Teams to Score AND Algeria vs. Austria: Both T BUY 2¢ $10 11h
Spread: England (-2.5) AND Spread: Argentina (-2.5) AND Cristiano Rona BUY 3¢ $14 11h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 0¢ $5 31h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 32h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 32h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 4¢ $5 32h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 32h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 32h
Michael Olise: 2+ assists AND Kylian Mbappé: 3+ goals BUY 1¢ $21 36h
Michael Olise: 1+ assists AND Kylian Mbappé: 2+ goals BUY 11¢ $43 36h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 3¢ $7 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 3¢ $3 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 3¢ $19 2d
Deniz Undav: 2+ goals BUY Yes 7¢ $10 2d
Spread: Germany (-1.5) BUY Germany 12¢ $38 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 2518 history records