Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T03:14:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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D2 0xd239…2d6e crypto 99 markets active 2h ago coverage 173d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$180 (-3%) realized −$180 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -17% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR17%break-even
Win rate53%52W / 46L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$73per market
Trades / day1.3pace
Kalshi-fit66%portable
Net worth$114now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$0
14 days−$7
30 days−$189
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 59% −$39
crypto 22% −$61
world 16% −$97
politics 3% −$1
sports 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +17%
net ROI/market (all)-25.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +0.0% -9.5% 50% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 43 -19.9% -27.6% 37% 12% -12.1%
≤90d 46 -18.7% -26.4% 39% 11% -12.1%
all 98 -17.4% -25.2% 53% 17% -12.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -25.2% 17% -12.1%
10% -32.4% 12% -20.5%
15% -38.9% 6% -28.2%
20% -44.9% 5% -35.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 33% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
67% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -17% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -13% → late -22% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$5 · ×0.09 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.1 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

173d coverage
Net worth$114
Realized−$180
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses52 / 46
Open positions1
Markets (closed)98 / 99
History coverage173d
Avg bet$73
Trades / day1.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit66%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 98 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 on June 20? No 100¢ 100¢ $114 $114 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 19 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Bitcoin dip to $64,000 on June 16? Jun 17 $63 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $64,000 on June 15? Jun 16 $250 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 15? Jun 15 $125 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 15? Jun 15 $125 $0 -0%
Will Solana dip to $60 on June 12? Jun 13 $250 $0 +0%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $7 −$7 -99%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Solana dip to $55 on June 10? Jun 11 $200 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $80 on May 28? May 28 $52 −$50 -96%
Citrea FDV above $1B one day after launch? May 28 $255 $0 -0%
Citrea FDV above $800M one day after launch? May 27 $100 $0 -0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31? May 27 $392 −$18 -5%
Solstice FDV above $100M one day after launch? May 26 $238 −$7 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET May 26 $1 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET May 26 $5 $0 +3%
Solstice FDV above $200M one day after launch? May 26 $63 −$2 -3%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 28? May 26 $212 −$79 -38%
Will Ken Paxton win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary? May 26 $192 −$1 -1%
Will Solstice launch a token by June 30 2026? May 25 $2,128 −$1 -0%
Solstice FDV above $150M one day after launch? May 25 $52 −$20 -39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET May 25 $1 −$1 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 24 $426 +$1 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET May 24 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET May 24 $40 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET May 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET May 24 $21 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET May 24 $21 +$4 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET May 24 $41 −$1 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET May 24 $42 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET May 24 $3 +$1 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET May 24 $22 +$3 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET May 24 $3 +$1 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET May 24 $22 −$2 -8%
Will Solstice launch a token by September 30 2026? May 24 $100 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET May 24 $2 +$1 +39%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - May 23, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET May 24 $1 $0 +1%
Will Solstice launch a token by December 31 2026? May 23 $800 $0 -0%
Epstein confirmed to be Satoshi by December 31? May 23 $97 $0 -0%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through June 15? May 23 $113 −$1 -1%
Will Ethereum reach $2,150 on May 22? May 22 $1 −$1 -94%
Will Ethereum dip to $2,050 on May 22? May 22 $2 −$2 -96%
Will Ethereum dip to $2,000 on May 22? May 22 $1 −$1 -94%
Will the price of Solana be less than $40 on May 22? May 22 $66 $0 +0%
Nexus FDV above $50M one day after launch? May 22 $65 $0 +0%
Nexus FDV above $800M one day after launch? May 22 $100 +$1 +1%
Variational FDV above $100M one day after launch? May 20 $34 −$1 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Mar 04 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Mar 04 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Mar 04 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Mar 04 $2 −$2 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 on June 20? BUY No 100¢ $14 1h
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 on June 20? BUY No 100¢ $100 1h
Will Bitcoin dip to $64,000 on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $63 4d
Will Bitcoin dip to $64,000 on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $250 5d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 15? SELL No 100¢ $125 5d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 15? SELL Yes 100¢ $125 5d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $125 5d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 15? BUY Yes 100¢ $125 5d
Will Solana dip to $60 on June 12? BUY No 100¢ $250 8d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 54¢ $5 8d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 21¢ $1 8d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 53¢ $2 8d
Will Solana dip to $55 on June 10? BUY No 100¢ $200 10d
Will the price of Solana be above $80 on May 28? BUY No 35¢ $52 23d
Citrea FDV above $1B one day after launch? SELL No 100¢ $255 23d
Citrea FDV above $800M one day after launch? SELL No 100¢ $100 24d
Citrea FDV above $1B one day after launch? BUY No 100¢ $55 24d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31? SELL Yes 43¢ $129 24d
Citrea FDV above $1B one day after launch? BUY No 100¢ $100 24d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31? BUY Yes 49¢ $147 24d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31? SELL Yes 50¢ $195 24d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31? SELL Yes 50¢ $50 24d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31? BUY Yes 50¢ $245 24d
Citrea FDV above $800M one day after launch? BUY No 100¢ $100 25d
Citrea FDV above $1B one day after launch? BUY No 100¢ $100 25d
Solstice FDV above $100M one day after launch? SELL Yes 99¢ $199 25d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET SELL Down 49¢ $1 25d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Down 43¢ $1 25d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $5 25d
Solstice FDV above $100M one day after launch? BUY Yes 100¢ $200 25d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $114.05 · official $114.05 (match) · 275 history records