Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T11:17:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
D2 0xd239…2083 sports 661 markets active 1h ago coverage 144d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$2,250 (+1%) realized +$2,241 · open +$9
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate47%310W / 350L
Whale WR57%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$254per market
Trades / day6.8pace
Fees−$1,152est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$306now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$965
7 days+$2,067
14 days+$3,237
30 days+$4,824
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 76% +$5,830
crypto 21% −$6,181
other 3% +$965
world 0% +$714
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-12.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 +23.3% +11.5% 56% 50% +23.0%
≤30d 83 +22.0% +10.3% 58% 55% +10.1%
≤90d 329 -0.8% -10.3% 47% 47% -7.1%
all 660 -3.5% -12.7% 47% 47% -8.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.7% 47% -8.8%
10% -21.0% 46% -17.5%
15% -28.7% 45% -25.5%
20% -35.7% 44% -32.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 57% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -6% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$269 vs −$234 · ×1.15 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.02 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

144d coverage
Net worth$306
Realized+$2,241
Unrealized+$9
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses310 / 350
Whale WR (big bets)57%
Est. fees paid−$1,152
Open positions1
Markets (closed)660 / 661
History coverage144d
Avg bet$254
Trades / day6.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 660 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Portugal 51¢ 52¢ $297 $306 +$9 (+3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 317 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Austria (-1.5) Jun 17 $285 +$338 +119%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $264 +$277 +105%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $290 +$571 +197%
Spread: Spain (-3.5) Jun 15 $225 −$221 -98%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $425 −$417 -98%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $457 +$520 +114%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $325 +$252 +78%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $533 +$1,265 +237%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $234 +$300 +128%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $594 −$584 -98%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $193 −$190 -98%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 13 $165 −$161 -97%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $153 +$13 +8%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $256 −$250 -98%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $498 +$640 +128%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $295 −$291 -98%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 216.5 Jun 10 $308 −$304 -99%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 10 $295 +$309 +105%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 10 $301 −$296 -98%
Hungary vs. Kazakhstan: O/U 2.5 Jun 09 $344 +$252 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12PM ET Jun 09 $156 −$150 -96%
Armenia vs. Moldova: O/U 2.5 Jun 09 $249 −$245 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5AM ET Jun 09 $155 +$154 +99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1AM ET Jun 09 $155 +$104 +67%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 215.5 Jun 09 $345 +$335 +97%
Netherlands vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 2.5 Jun 08 $203 +$241 +119%
HSBC Championships: Karolina Pliskova vs McCartney Kessler Jun 08 $172 +$136 +79%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 8, 5AM ET Jun 08 $155 +$83 +54%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 08 $201 −$196 -98%
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) Jun 07 $217 −$213 -98%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 07 $305 +$307 +101%
LoL: Top Esports vs Team WE (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 07 $194 −$190 -98%
Spread: Argentina (-2.5) Jun 07 $300 +$265 +88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET Jun 07 $372 +$223 +60%
United States vs. Germany: O/U 3.5 Jun 06 $266 −$262 -98%
Belgium vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 Jun 06 $304 +$261 +86%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 06 $614 +$177 +29%
Kawasaki Frontale vs. Sanfrecce Hiroshima: O/U 2.5 Jun 06 $305 +$426 +139%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET Jun 04 $484 −$468 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET Jun 04 $516 −$500 -97%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 04 $439 +$725 +165%
LoL: ThunderTalk Gaming vs LGD Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 02 $395 −$390 -99%
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 2.5 May 30 $731 −$719 -98%
Liaoning Tieren FC vs. Shanghai Haigang FC: O/U 2.5 May 29 $182 −$179 -98%
Game Handicap: JDG (-2.5) vs ThunderTalk Gaming (+2.5) May 29 $216 +$164 +76%
Thunder vs. Spurs: O/U 218.5 May 29 $234 +$245 +105%
Red Bull Bragantino vs. Carabobo FC: O/U 2.5 May 27 $210 −$207 -98%
Crystal Palace FC vs. Rayo Vallecano de Madrid: O/U 2.5 May 27 $206 −$202 -98%
Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 215.5 May 27 $289 +$229 +79%
Thunder vs. Spurs: O/U 218.5 May 24 $281 −$277 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 51¢ $301 1h
Spread: Austria (-1.5) BUY Austria 45¢ $285 8h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $541 8h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 48¢ $264 9h
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY France 33¢ $290 16h
Spread: Spain (-3.5) BUY Spain 38¢ $225 44h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 32¢ $425 2d
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $977 2d
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 46¢ $457 2d
Spread: Germany (-3.5) SELL Germany 94¢ $577 2d
Spread: Germany (-3.5) BUY Germany 52¢ $325 2d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI SELL T1 100¢ $1,798 2d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY T1 29¢ $533 3d
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 9.5 Total Corners SELL Over 100¢ $534 3d
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 46¢ $395 3d
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 43¢ $234 3d
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 46¢ $199 3d
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 47¢ $193 3d
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY KT Rolster 12¢ $165 4d
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 47¢ $166 4d
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 42¢ $153 4d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 20¢ $256 4d
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $1,138 5d
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 43¢ $498 5d
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 44¢ $295 5d
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 216.5 BUY Over 51¢ $308 6d
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) SELL Nigeria 100¢ $604 6d
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Nigeria 48¢ $295 7d
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Iceland 40¢ $301 7d
Hungary vs. Kazakhstan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 57¢ $344 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $305.74 · official $305.74 (match) · 1054 history records