Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T14:33:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D2 0xd23b…6efa other 60 markets active 1h ago coverage 6d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$121 (-13%) realized −$109 · open −$12
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR19%break-even
Win rate22%12W / 42L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$16per market
Trades / day14.7pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit25%portable
Net worth$113now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 79% −$90
sports 12% +$22
crypto 5% −$47
world 4% −$39
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +19%
net ROI/market (all)-16.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 54 -7.2% -16.0% 22% 19% -25.6%
≤30d 54 -7.2% -16.0% 22% 19% -25.6%
≤90d 54 -7.2% -16.0% 22% 19% -25.6%
all 54 -7.2% -16.0% 22% 19% -25.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover14.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.0% 19% -25.6%
10% -24.1% 19% -32.7%
15% -31.4% 17% -39.2%
20% -38.1% 13% -45.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 32% · top 2 59% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -18% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -18% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late -10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$33 vs −$13 · ×2.57 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.73 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$113
Realized−$109
Unrealized−$12
Win rate (resolved)22%
Wins / losses12 / 42
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions6
Markets (closed)54 / 60
History coverage6d
Avg bet$16
Trades / day14.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit25%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 54 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Japan reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 28¢ 24¢ $60 $51 −$9 (-16%)
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Yes 25¢ 24¢ $15 $15 −$0 (-2%)
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 0 South Africa? Yes 12¢ 12¢ $15 $14 −$1 (-4%)
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 1 South Africa? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $15 $14 −$1 (-5%)
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Yes 12¢ 12¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-4%)
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 14 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $11 +$50 +437%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: England 2 - 0 Croatia? Jun 17 $10 −$2 -21%
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 1 DR Congo? Jun 17 $16 −$4 -24%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 DR Congo? Jun 17 $31 −$21 -68%
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 17 $26 −$25 -97%
Exact Score: England 2 - 1 Croatia? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -96%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -98%
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Algeria? Jun 17 $8 +$35 +454%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Algeria? Jun 17 $8 +$4 +56%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Algeria? Jun 17 $8 −$7 -96%
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 3 Norway? Jun 16 $16 +$124 +800%
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 2 Norway? Jun 16 $16 −$15 -97%
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 3 Norway? Jun 16 $16 −$15 -96%
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Senegal? Jun 16 $16 −$15 -96%
Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $23 −$22 -96%
Exact Score: France 1 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $8 −$7 -96%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $20 −$19 -97%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $10 +$3 +24%
Exact Score: Sweden 3 - 1 Tunisia? Jun 16 $21 −$21 -100%
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 1 Japan? Jun 16 $16 −$16 -100%
Exact Score: Australia 1 - 1 Türkiye? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Exact Score: Australia 0 - 1 Türkiye? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 16 $8 −$8 -100%
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 2 Japan? Jun 16 $8 −$8 -100%
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 1 Japan? Jun 16 $23 −$23 -100%
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 0 Curaçao? Jun 16 $8 −$8 -100%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $15 −$15 -100%
Exact Score: Haiti 1 - 1 Scotland? Jun 16 $16 −$16 -100%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 16 $23 −$23 -100%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 16 $15 −$15 -100%
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 3 Switzerland? Jun 16 $8 −$8 -100%
Exact Score: Qatar 1 - 2 Switzerland? Jun 16 $8 −$8 -100%
Exact Score: United States 2 - 2 Paraguay? Jun 16 $8 −$8 -100%
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $8 −$8 -100%
Exact Score: United States 1 - 1 Paraguay? Jun 16 $23 −$23 -100%
Exact Score: United States 1 - 0 Paraguay? Jun 16 $31 −$31 -100%
Exact Score: United States 2 - 1 Paraguay? Jun 16 $33 −$33 -100%
Exact Score: Canada 0 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 16 $8 −$8 -100%
Exact Score: IR Iran 3 - 0 New Zealand? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -96%
Exact Score: IR Iran 2 - 0 New Zealand? Jun 15 $16 −$15 -96%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $3 +$20 +660%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $31 −$16 -53%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 5.5 Jun 15 $21 +$1 +4%
Exact Score: Sweden 3 - 3 Tunisia? Jun 15 $10 −$9 -89%
Exact Score: Sweden 2 - 1 Tunisia? Jun 15 $20 +$1 +4%
Exact Score: Sweden 2 - 0 Tunisia? Jun 15 $21 +$7 +35%
Exact Score: Sweden 1 - 0 Tunisia? Jun 15 $21 −$7 -34%
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 1 - 1 Ecuador? Jun 14 $8 −$2 -30%
Exact Score: Haiti 0 - 1 Scotland? Jun 14 $16 +$107 +688%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 11¢ $10 56m
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 12¢ $10 57m
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 1 South Africa? BUY Yes 11¢ $16 58m
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 0 South Africa? BUY Yes 12¢ $16 58m
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 25¢ $15 1h
Will Japan reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 28¢ $62 16h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $10 28h
Exact Score: England 2 - 0 Croatia? SELL Yes 11¢ $8 28h
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 1 DR Congo? SELL Yes 9¢ $12 29h
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 DR Congo? BUY Yes 8¢ $21 29h
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 DR Congo? BUY Yes 17¢ $16 29h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 18¢ $10 30h
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 1 DR Congo? BUY Yes 11¢ $16 31h
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 DR Congo? SELL Yes 7¢ $8 31h
Exact Score: England 2 - 1 Croatia? BUY Yes 12¢ $10 31h
Exact Score: England 2 - 0 Croatia? BUY Yes 13¢ $10 31h
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 DR Congo? BUY Yes 8¢ $10 31h
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 DR Congo? BUY Yes 17¢ $10 31h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 18¢ $1 31h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 50¢ $1 32h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 50¢ $1 32h
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Algeria? SELL Yes 53¢ $43 35h
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Algeria? SELL Yes 25¢ $12 36h
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Algeria? BUY Yes 11¢ $8 37h
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Algeria? BUY Yes 9¢ $8 37h
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Algeria? BUY Yes 15¢ $8 37h
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 3 Norway? SELL Yes 76¢ $140 38h
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 2 Norway? BUY Yes 16¢ $16 2d
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 3 Norway? BUY Yes 8¢ $16 2d
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 3 Norway? BUY Yes 14¢ $16 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $113.21 · official $113.21 (match) · 114 history records