Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T16:58:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
D2 0xd23c…60d9 other 34 markets active 1h ago coverage 546d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$60 (-12%) realized −$60 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate0%0W / 34L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit50%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 55% $0
sports 38% −$60
politics 7% $0
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-12.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 2 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 4 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
all 34 -3.4% -12.6% 0% 0% -20.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.6% 0% -20.6%
10% -20.9% 0% -28.2%
15% -28.6% 0% -35.1%
20% -35.6% 0% -41.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top —% · top 2 —% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% too few recent
Fragile wins
—% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
— vs −$3 no data
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

546d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$60
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)0%
Wins / losses0 / 34
Open positions0
Markets (closed)34 / 34
History coverage546d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 34 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 15 $5 $0 -0%
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 23 $5 $0 -0%
Will JB Pritzker win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 26 $6 $0 -0%
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 30 $5 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 16 $5 $0 -0%
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 02 $5 $0 +0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jan 25 $6 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago Bears win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 24 $12 $0 -0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win Super Bowl 2026? Nov 25 $6 $0 -0%
Will the Browns win the AFC Championship? Oct 10 $5 $0 +0%
Will the Houston Texans win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 24 $1 $0 +0%
Will the Tampa Bay Rays win the 2025 World Series? Aug 18 $5 $0 -0%
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 23 $11 $0 -0%
Will the Washington Commanders win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 18 $1 $0 -3%
Will the Minnesota Twins win the 2025 World Series? Jul 17 $6 $0 -0%
Will the Toronto Raptors win the 2025 NBA Finals? Jul 17 $0 $0 +0%
Aston Villa wins the Premier League? Jul 17 $8 $0 -0%
Will Celtic win the UEFA Champions League? Jun 15 $7 $0 +0%
Will the Buccaneers win Super Bowl 2025? Jun 15 $1 $0 +0%
Everton wins the Premier League? Jun 15 $6 $0 +0%
Will the New Orleans Saints win Super Bowl 2026? Jun 12 $7 $0 -0%
Will Luxembourg win Eurovision 2025? May 15 $5 $0 -0%
Will the Philadelphia Flyers win the 2025 Stanley Cup? May 15 $7 $0 -0%
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2025? May 09 $6 $0 -0%
Leicester City wins the Premier League? May 07 $7 $0 -0%
Will Lille win the UEFA Champions League? May 07 $8 $0 +0%
Will Fridolin Ambongo Besungu be the next pope? May 05 $1 $0 +0%
Will Germany win Eurovision 2025? Apr 22 $6 $0 -0%
Will Israel win Eurovision 2025? Mar 29 $1 $0 -10%
Lakers vs. Grizzlies Mar 28 $60 −$60 -100%
Will the Calgary Flames win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Jan 06 $1 $0 +0%
Will the Montreal Canadiens win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Dec 16 $186 $0 +0%
Will Sparta Prague win the UEFA Champions League? Dec 16 $49 $0 -0%
Brighton & Hove Albion wins the Premier League? Dec 16 $41 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $5 1h
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $5 1h
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $5 23d
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $5 23d
Will JB Pritzker win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $6 49d
Will JB Pritzker win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $6 49d
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 98¢ $3 77d
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 98¢ $2 77d
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 98¢ $5 77d
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 98¢ $5 91d
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 98¢ $5 91d
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $5 104d
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $5 110d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $6 140d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $6 140d
Will the Chicago Bears win Super Bowl 2026? SELL No 96¢ $6 173d
Will the Chicago Bears win Super Bowl 2026? BUY No 96¢ $6 173d
Will the Carolina Panthers win Super Bowl 2026? SELL No 100¢ $6 202d
Will the Carolina Panthers win Super Bowl 2026? BUY No 100¢ $6 202d
Will the Chicago Bears win Super Bowl 2026? SELL No 99¢ $6 230d
Will the Chicago Bears win Super Bowl 2026? BUY No 99¢ $6 230d
Will the Browns win the AFC Championship? SELL No 100¢ $5 247d
Will the Browns win the AFC Championship? BUY No 100¢ $5 258d
Will the Houston Texans win Super Bowl 2026? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 294d
Will the Houston Texans win Super Bowl 2026? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 294d
Will the Houston Texans win Super Bowl 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 294d
Will the Tampa Bay Rays win the 2025 World Series? SELL No 100¢ $5 300d
Will the Tampa Bay Rays win the 2025 World Series? BUY No 100¢ $5 300d
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win Super Bowl 2026? SELL No 99¢ $5 327d
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win Super Bowl 2026? BUY No 99¢ $5 327d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 99 history records