Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T20:41:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
D2 0xd23d…5d2d crypto 266 markets active 5h ago coverage 249d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$3,506 (+1%) realized +$3,506 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR9%break-even
Win rate89%238W / 28L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown45%max
Avg bet$2,118per market
Trades / day1.4pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$89
7 days+$166
14 days+$332
30 days+$592
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 78% +$3,213
other 22% +$645
sports 0% −$98
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +9%
net ROI/market (all)-11.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +2.7% -7.1% 100% 0% -8.3%
≤30d 18 -1.8% -11.1% 94% 6% -8.0%
≤90d 112 -8.9% -17.6% 83% 14% -9.5%
all 266 -2.3% -11.6% 89% 9% -8.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.4 tr/day
realistic slip~10%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.6% 9% -8.9%
10% ← realistic here -20.0% 5% -17.6%
15% -27.8% 3% -25.6%
20% -34.8% 2% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
89% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$3,091) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +1% → late -6% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$26 vs −$90 · ×0.29 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×2.55 per $1 lost it wins $2.55
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

249d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$3,506
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)89%
Wins / losses238 / 28
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions0
Markets (closed)266 / 266
History coverage249d
Avg bet$2,118
Trades / day1.4
Drawdown45%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 266 Trades
no open positions (12 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 28? Jun 28 $2,202 +$24 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 26? Jun 26 $503 +$47 +9%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 26? Jun 26 $2,001 +$19 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 24? Jun 24 $3,603 +$39 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 23? Jun 23 $3,603 +$37 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 18? Jun 18 $302 +$31 +10%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 18? Jun 18 $3,205 +$64 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 16? Jun 16 $152 +$31 +20%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 15? Jun 15 $2,506 +$40 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 14? Jun 14 $21 −$20 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 13? Jun 13 $3,403 +$46 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 11? Jun 11 $3,001 +$11 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 9? Jun 09 $1,002 +$21 +2%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 8? Jun 08 $503 +$48 +10%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 6? Jun 06 $2,002 +$24 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 2? Jun 02 $3,203 +$44 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 1? Jun 01 $2,004 +$62 +3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 31? Jun 01 $2,502 +$24 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 29? May 29 $1,503 +$40 +3%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on May 28? May 28 $428 +$18 +4%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 26? May 26 $3,003 +$35 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 25? May 25 $3,002 +$27 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 24? May 24 $2,001 +$20 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 23? May 23 $3,001 +$19 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on May 22? May 22 $2,503 +$43 +2%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on May 21? May 22 $956 +$7 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 21? May 21 $2,001 +$7 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on May 19? May 19 $2,003 +$38 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 18? May 18 $2,802 +$26 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on May 15? May 15 $2,852 +$27 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on May 14? May 14 $202 −$200 -99%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 13? May 13 $3,061 +$11 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on May 12? May 12 $3,001 +$18 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on May 11? May 11 $123 +$22 +17%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 11? May 11 $2,890 +$6 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on May 9? May 09 $2,982 +$31 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 8? May 09 $165 −$29 -18%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on May 8? May 09 $2,202 +$21 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on May 7? May 07 $301 +$18 +6%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on May 6? May 06 $1,001 +$19 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 5? May 05 $302 +$34 +11%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-05-05? May 05 $2 −$1 -68%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on May 4? May 04 $2,897 +$24 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on May 3? May 03 $2,881 +$16 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on May 1? May 01 $2,712 +$168 +6%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on April 29? Apr 30 $2,701 +$13 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on April 28? Apr 29 $2,694 +$8 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on April 27? Apr 27 $2,651 +$43 +2%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on April 26? Apr 27 $2,637 +$14 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on April 25? Apr 26 $2,614 +$22 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 28? BUY No 100¢ $2,000 4h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 28? BUY No 90¢ $201 4h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 26? BUY Yes 99¢ $2,001 2d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 26? BUY No 91¢ $503 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 24? BUY Yes 99¢ $3,603 4d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 23? BUY Yes 99¢ $1,601 5d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 23? BUY Yes 99¢ $2,002 5d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 18? BUY No 98¢ $3,205 10d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 18? BUY No 90¢ $302 10d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 16? BUY No 82¢ $152 12d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 15? BUY Yes 98¢ $1,001 13d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 15? BUY Yes 99¢ $1,001 13d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 15? BUY Yes 98¢ $504 13d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 14? BUY No 9¢ $21 14d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 13? BUY Yes 99¢ $2,401 15d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 13? BUY Yes 97¢ $1,002 15d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 11? BUY Yes 100¢ $3,001 17d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 9? BUY No 98¢ $1,002 19d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 8? BUY No 91¢ $503 20d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 6? BUY Yes 99¢ $2,002 22d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 2? BUY No 99¢ $3,203 26d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 1? BUY No 99¢ $1,001 27d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 1? BUY No 95¢ $1,004 27d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 31? BUY No 99¢ $2,502 28d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 29? BUY No 98¢ $1,001 30d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 29? BUY No 95¢ $502 30d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on May 28? BUY No 96¢ $428 31d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 26? BUY No 99¢ $3,003 33d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 25? BUY No 99¢ $3,002 34d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 24? BUY Yes 99¢ $2,001 35d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 602 history records