Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T14:56:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

D2
0xd23f…94a1
weather · 657 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$7,586 -34%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$9,105 · open −$9,159
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP weather specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$1,123
Realized−$9,105
Unrealized−$9,159
Win rate (resolved)14%
Wins / losses28 / 171
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions493
Markets (closed)199 / 657
History coverage1d
Avg bet$34
Trades / day1951.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit72%
Chart Positions 493 History 199 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$9,105
7 days−$9,105
14 days−$9,105
30 days−$9,105
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Jalen Brunson record the highest scoring game of the 2026 NBA Finals? Yes 3¢ 77¢ $1 $35 +$33 (+2287%)
Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 4¢ 79¢ $2 $33 +$32 (+1875%)
Will Bruno Mars have the greatest number of monthly Spotify listeners this month? Yes 2¢ 92¢ $1 $28 +$27 (+3580%)
Will Trump’s approval rating be between 38.5 and 38.9 on June 12, 2026? Yes 17¢ 59¢ $7 $24 +$17 (+254%)
Will Parti libéral du Québec win the most seats in the 2026 Quebec general election? Yes 3¢ 26¢ $2 $15 +$13 (+741%)
Will Karl-Anthony Towns record the highest scoring game of the 2026 NBA Finals? Yes 3¢ 32¢ $1 $14 +$13 (+876%)
Will Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals 4-2 be the exact series outcome? Yes 11¢ 34¢ $5 $14 +$9 (+201%)
Will De'Aaron Fox record the highest scoring game of the 2026 NBA Finals? Yes 3¢ 30¢ $1 $14 +$12 (+830%)
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $182 $13 −$169 (-93%)
Will Labour Party win the most seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives in the 2026 New Zealand legislative election? Yes 3¢ 58¢ $0 $9 +$8 (+1830%)
Will the Republican Party win the NY-01 House seat? Yes 12¢ 58¢ $2 $9 +$7 (+364%)
Will Goldman Sachs or any of its underwriting affiliates serve as the lead underwriter in Anthropic's initial public offering? Yes 5¢ 34¢ $1 $8 +$7 (+555%)
Will Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals 4-3 be the exact series outcome? Yes 11¢ 18¢ $5 $8 +$3 (+66%)
Will the Baltimore Orioles have the longest winning streak during the 2026 MLB regular season? Yes 3¢ 50¢ $1 $8 +$7 (+1434%)
Will the Toronto Blue Jays have the longest winning streak during the 2026 MLB regular season? Yes 3¢ 49¢ $1 $8 +$7 (+1419%)
Will the New York Yankees have the longest winning streak during the 2026 MLB regular season? Yes 3¢ 49¢ $1 $8 +$7 (+1419%)
Will the San Diego Padres have the longest winning streak during the 2026 MLB regular season? Yes 3¢ 49¢ $1 $8 +$7 (+1419%)
Will the Washington Nationals have the longest winning streak during the 2026 MLB regular season? Yes 3¢ 49¢ $1 $8 +$7 (+1419%)
Will the Texas Rangers have the longest winning streak during the 2026 MLB regular season? Yes 3¢ 49¢ $1 $8 +$7 (+1419%)
Will the Arizona Diamondbacks have the longest winning streak during the 2026 MLB regular season? Yes 3¢ 49¢ $1 $8 +$7 (+1419%)
Will the Tampa Bay Rays have the longest winning streak during the 2026 MLB regular season? Yes 3¢ 49¢ $1 $8 +$7 (+1419%)
Will the Seattle Mariners have the longest winning streak during the 2026 MLB regular season? Yes 3¢ 49¢ $1 $8 +$7 (+1419%)
Will the Chicago Cubs have the longest winning streak during the 2026 MLB regular season? Yes 3¢ 48¢ $1 $8 +$7 (+1403%)
Will the Cleveland Guardians have the longest winning streak during the 2026 MLB regular season? Yes 3¢ 48¢ $1 $8 +$7 (+1388%)
Will the Colorado Rockies have the longest winning streak during the 2026 MLB regular season? Yes 3¢ 48¢ $1 $8 +$7 (+1388%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 11? Jun 12 $0 +$67 +81655%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on June 11? Jun 12 $0 +$13 +16453%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 18°C on June 11? Jun 12 $0 +$7 +11477%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on June 11? Jun 12 $0 +$17 +28603%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 24°C on June 11? Jun 12 $0 +$3 +5989%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 94-95°F on Ju Jun 12 $0 +$93 +184695%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 11? Jun 12 $0 +$29 +61852%
Will "Disclosure Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 35m and 39 Jun 12 $5 −$3 -71%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C on June 13? Jun 12 $33 −$30 -92%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on June 13? Jun 12 $33 −$30 -92%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 13? Jun 12 $25 −$22 -90%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on June 13? Jun 12 $33 −$30 -92%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 12°C on June 13? Jun 12 $33 −$30 -92%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $293 −$6 -2%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $416 −$415 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 21°C on June 12? Jun 12 $18 −$17 -96%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 92-93°F on Ju Jun 12 $50 −$49 -99%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 90-91°F on Ju Jun 12 $58 −$57 -99%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 88-89°F on Ju Jun 12 $60 −$59 -99%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 86-87°F on Ju Jun 12 $61 −$61 -99%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on Ju Jun 12 $62 −$42 -68%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on Ju Jun 12 $62 −$42 -68%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 81°F or below on June Jun 12 $62 −$42 -68%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 100°F or higher on Ju Jun 12 $62 −$61 -99%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 98-99°F on Ju Jun 12 $62 −$61 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 22°C on June 12? Jun 12 $12 −$11 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 21°C on June 12? Jun 12 $7 −$7 -94%
Will SpaceX’s opening share price on its first day of trading be less Jun 12 $806 −$580 -72%
Will SpaceX’s opening share price on its first day of trading be betwe Jun 12 $841 −$823 -98%
Will SpaceX’s opening share price on its first day of trading be betwe Jun 12 $893 −$832 -93%
Will SpaceX’s closing share price on its first day of trading be betwe Jun 12 $168 −$162 -96%
Will SpaceX's market cap be at least $3.5T at market close on IPO day? Jun 12 $120 −$119 -99%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.5T and $3.0T at market close on Jun 12 $101 −$101 -99%
Will SpaceX’s opening share price on its first day of trading be at le Jun 12 $910 −$790 -87%
Will SpaceX raise between $40B and $50B in its IPO? Jun 12 $405 −$399 -98%
Will SpaceX raise less than $40B in its IPO? Jun 12 $405 −$399 -98%
Will SpaceX raise between $60B and $70B in its IPO? Jun 12 $404 −$398 -98%
Will SpaceX raise between $50B and $60B in its IPO? Jun 12 $405 −$399 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 35°C or higher on June 13 Jun 12 $41 −$41 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C on June 13? Jun 12 $41 −$41 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 13? Jun 12 $41 −$41 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 13? Jun 12 $38 −$38 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 13? Jun 12 $25 −$25 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 13? Jun 12 $39 −$39 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 13? Jun 12 $41 −$41 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 13? Jun 12 $28 −$27 -94%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 13? Jun 12 $31 −$29 -94%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 13? Jun 12 $42 −$36 -86%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 13? Jun 12 $44 −$42 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 13? Jun 12 $45 −$7 -15%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 50% −$9,924
weather 24% −$3,106
finance 14% −$3,186
tech 9% −$1,923
sports 3% −$298
politics 1% −$42
crypto 0% −$14
culture 0% −$3
world 0% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will "Disclosure Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 35m and 39 BUY No 97¢ $5 0m
Will "Disclosure Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 43m and 47 BUY No 55¢ $3 0m
Will "Disclosure Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 39m and 43 BUY No 68¢ $3 0m
Will "Disclosure Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 35m? BUY No 100¢ $5 0m
Will "Disclosure Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 47m? BUY No 80¢ $4 0m
Will South Korea be eliminated in the Quarterfinals of the World Cup? SELL Yes 10¢ $0 1m
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on June 14? SELL Yes 45¢ $2 1m
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 13? BUY No 76¢ $9 2m
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on June 13? BUY No 99¢ $12 2m
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on June 13? BUY No 99¢ $12 2m
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 12°C on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $12 2m
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $12 2m
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on June 13? BUY No 90¢ $11 2m
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on June 13? BUY No 34¢ $4 2m
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 94-95°F on June 13? BUY No 83¢ $5 3m
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 86-87°F on June 13? BUY No 99¢ $6 3m
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 96-97°F on June 13? BUY No 96¢ $6 3m
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be 100°F or higher on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $7 3m
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be 81°F or below on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $7 3m
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 82-83°F on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $7 3m
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 84-85°F on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $7 3m
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 98-99°F on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $6 3m
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 90-91°F on June 13? BUY No 72¢ $5 3m
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 92-93°F on June 13? BUY No 54¢ $4 3m
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 88-89°F on June 13? BUY No 94¢ $6 3m
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,700 and $1,800 on June 13? BUY No 78¢ $8 4m
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,800 and $1,900 on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $10 4m
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,500 and $1,600 on June 13? BUY No 99¢ $10 4m
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,600 and $1,700 on June 13? BUY No 22¢ $2 4m
Will Ivory Coast be eliminated in the Round of 16 of the World Cup? BUY No 80¢ $4 5m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 199 -0.2% -9.7% 14% 4% -86.0%
≤30d 199 -0.2% -9.7% 14% 4% -86.0%
≤90d 199 -0.2% -9.7% 14% 4% -86.0%
all 199 -0.2% -9.7% 14% 4% -86.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover1951.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.7% 4% -86.0%
10% ← realistic here -18.3% 4% -87.3%
15% -26.2% 4% -88.5%
20% -33.5% 4% -89.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,122.61 · official $1,201.66 · 3500 history records