Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T23:01:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
D2 0xd242…e84d crypto 359 markets active 0h ago coverage 575d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$1,416 (-2%) realized −$1,396 · open −$20
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate53%184W / 160L
Whale WR52%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$179per market
Trades / day3.8pace
Fees−$27est.
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$1,911now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$483
7 days−$75
14 days−$669
30 days−$471
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 27% −$1,626
other 22% −$3,123
world 20% +$653
tech 9% +$849
culture 8% +$1,399
economics 5% +$540
politics 4% +$189
sports 3% −$1,163
finance 2% +$259
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-11.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 -10.2% -18.7% 50% 44% -11.6%
≤30d 24 -5.6% -14.6% 62% 50% -17.0%
≤90d 70 +24.2% +12.4% 61% 51% -3.8%
all 344 -1.6% -11.0% 53% 44% -12.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.0% 44% -12.6%
10% -19.5% 33% -21.0%
15% -27.3% 23% -28.6%
20% -34.4% 19% -35.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 52% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early -5% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$79 vs −$103 · ×0.76 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.88 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

575d coverage
Net worth$1,911
Realized−$1,396
Unrealized−$20
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses184 / 160
Whale WR (big bets)52%
Est. fees paid−$27
Open positions15
Markets (closed)344 / 359
History coverage575d
Avg bet$179
Trades / day3.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 15 History 344 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 97¢ 97¢ $600 $601 +$1 (+0%)
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26? No 80¢ 78¢ $180 $174 −$5 (-3%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 83¢ 86¢ $166 $172 +$6 (+4%)
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting? Yes 81¢ 80¢ $162 $159 −$3 (-2%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $106 $151 +$45 (+43%)
Will the US-Iran deal be physically signed by June 30? No 69¢ 63¢ $138 $126 −$12 (-9%)
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $108 $99 −$9 (-8%)
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 18? No 95¢ 95¢ $95 $95 +$0 (+0%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? No 44¢ 44¢ $92 $93 +$1 (+1%)
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by June 30? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $83 $76 −$6 (-8%)
Will the US-Iran deal be physically signed by June 19, 2026? No 60¢ 68¢ $60 $68 +$8 (+14%)
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $54 $44 −$10 (-19%)
Will Anthropic or OpenAI IPO first? Anthropic 74¢ 73¢ $40 $40 −$1 (-2%)
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 19? No 92¢ 92¢ $12 $12 +$0 (+1%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? No 19¢ $35 $0 −$35 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Trump speak to Volodymyr Zelenskyy in June? Jun 17 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $215 −$210 -98%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $204 −$200 -98%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026? Jun 16 $300 −$23 -8%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $102 −$102 -100%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $204 +$485 +238%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $66 +$33 +49%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $196 +$148 +76%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $11 +$2 +14%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 13 $741 +$25 +3%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $113 −$113 -100%
Will SpaceX’s initial public offering occur in June 2026 (ET)? Jun 13 $166 −$107 -64%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on Jun 13 $214 −$214 -100%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.5T and $3.0T at market close on Jun 12 $382 +$55 +14%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? Jun 12 $187 +$67 +36%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? Jun 12 $163 +$128 +79%
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? Jun 09 $363 +$14 +4%
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev Jun 07 $628 −$628 -100%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? Jun 07 $158 +$20 +13%
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in May? Jun 01 $86 +$14 +16%
Epstein suicide note released by May 31? Jun 01 $164 +$36 +22%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31? Jun 01 $291 +$9 +3%
Will Morgan Stanley or any of its underwriting affiliates serve as the May 20 $113 +$64 +56%
Will Bank of America or any of its underwriting affiliates serve as th May 20 $566 +$75 +13%
Will Trump visit China by May 31? May 16 $148 −$148 -100%
Will SpaceX IPO by June 15, 2026? May 12 $77 +$23 +30%
US x Iran peace deal before Trump visits China? May 10 $159 −$55 -35%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? May 07 $1,113 −$83 -7%
Will Bayern Munich win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 07 $71 +$29 +41%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 06 $195 −$195 -100%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? May 03 $1,220 −$52 -4%
Will Ethereum dip to $2,000 in April? May 01 $94 −$94 -100%
Will Ethereum reach $2,600 in April? May 01 $178 +$14 +8%
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 29 $404 +$80 +20%
Will Finland win Eurovision 2026? Apr 29 $113 −$10 -9%
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 27 $84 +$12 +14%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 23 $92 −$2 -2%
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026? Apr 21 $650 +$91 +14%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30? Apr 21 $786 +$205 +26%
Will Real Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 20 $71 −$71 -100%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? Apr 20 $649 −$41 -6%
Will Trump praise Allah again by April 15? Apr 17 $46 +$4 +8%
Will SpaceX’s initial public offering occur in July 2026 (ET)? Apr 17 $30 +$30 +99%
Will Ethereum reach $2,400 in April? Apr 14 $16 −$16 -100%
Will Goldman Sachs or any of its underwriting affiliates serve as the Apr 14 $220 +$33 +15%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in April? Apr 07 $139 +$16 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Apr 03 $215 +$47 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Apr 03 $72 −$72 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Apr 03 $145 −$76 -52%
US forces enter Iran by December 31? Apr 03 $80 +$7 +8%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 19? BUY No 92¢ $12 19m
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 18? BUY No 95¢ $95 49m
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ju BUY Yes 11¢ $43 50m
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ju BUY Yes 11¢ $20 52m
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ju BUY Yes 10¢ $20 53m
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26? BUY No 80¢ $35 1h
Will the US-Iran deal be physically signed by June 19, 2026? BUY No 60¢ $2 1h
Will the US-Iran deal be physically signed by June 19, 2026? BUY No 60¢ $2 1h
Will the US-Iran deal be physically signed by June 19, 2026? BUY No 60¢ $2 1h
Will the US-Iran deal be physically signed by June 19, 2026? BUY No 60¢ $54 1h
Will the US-Iran deal be physically signed by June 30? BUY No 69¢ $138 1h
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meet BUY Yes 81¢ $164 1h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26? BUY No 80¢ $60 1h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26? BUY No 80¢ $66 1h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26? BUY No 79¢ $20 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 44¢ $92 1h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 16¢ $10 2h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $102 3h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 17¢ $102 3h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $102 3h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 17¢ $102 3h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 97¢ $601 24h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 31¢ $247 33h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 18¢ $74 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 18¢ $392 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 17¢ $206 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 17¢ $109 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 17¢ $32 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 17¢ $43 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 17¢ $122 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,910.52 · official $1,912.52 (match) · 2504 history records