Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T13:39:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

D2
0xd244…537c
sports · 57 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$110 -1%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$111 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$10
Realized−$111
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)20%
Wins / losses11 / 45
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)56 / 57
History coverage598d
Avg bet$289
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit72%
Chart Positions 1 History 56 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$15
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting? No 99¢ 100¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 14 $6 $0 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 13 $4 $0 -0%
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 12 $63 $0 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 07 $7 $0 -0%
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2026 World Series? Jun 06 $5 $0 -0%
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 05 $10 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in May? Jun 05 $14 $0 +0%
Will Team Liquid win IEM Cologne Major 2026? May 28 $10 $0 -0%
Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? May 27 $10 $0 -0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 26 $10 $0 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 22 $10 $0 -0%
Athletics vs. Los Angeles Angels May 22 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Amir Ohana be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 20 $10 $0 -0%
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 19 $10 $0 -0%
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 18 $37 $0 -0%
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? May 18 $39 $0 -0%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Colorado Rockies May 18 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 12 $47 $0 -0%
San Francisco Giants vs. Los Angeles Dodgers May 12 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Panama win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 11 $54 $0 -0%
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 08 $57 $0 -0%
Will Rodina gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary elec May 06 $59 $0 -0%
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 01 $58 $0 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 30 $60 $0 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 27 $55 $0 -0%
Will Park Hong-keun win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 21 $58 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 21 $57 $0 -0%
Will Seo Young-kyo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 20 $57 $0 -0%
Will the Phoenix Suns win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 19 $55 $0 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 m Apr 19 $54 $0 -0%
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 18 $58 $0 -0%
Hawks vs. Cavaliers Apr 10 $3 +$3 +86%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-08? Apr 10 $3 +$3 +79%
Trail Blazers vs. Spurs Apr 10 $4 +$2 +62%
Avalanche vs. Blues Apr 08 $3 −$3 -100%
Lightning vs. Sabres Apr 07 $7 −$7 -100%
76ers vs. Spurs Apr 07 $4 −$4 -100%
Utah vs. Kraken Apr 06 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in March? Apr 06 $23 $0 +0%
Stars vs. Flyers Apr 02 $24 −$24 -100%
Iowa Hawkeyes vs. Florida Gators: O/U 144.5 Mar 27 $21 −$21 -100%
Hawks vs. Pistons Mar 27 $36 −$36 -100%
Kraken vs. Panthers Mar 25 $28 +$23 +82%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the March 2026 m Mar 24 $46 $0 +0%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Febru Mar 05 $4 $0 +0%
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $190 by end of February? Mar 05 $87 $0 +0%
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of January 2026? Feb 09 $83 +$4 +5%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after January 2026 meeting? Jan 09 $13,559 −$14 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Oct 11 $12 $0 -0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2025 NBA Finals? Oct 08 $30 +$1 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
economics 83% −$14
politics 10% −$3
other 4% +$2
sports 2% −$100
tech 1% +$4
world 0% $0
culture 0% $0
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $6 1h
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $6 2h
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $4 24h
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $4 31h
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $4 38h
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $4 2d
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $7 7d
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $7 7d
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $5 8d
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 100¢ $5 8d
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $10 9d
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $10 9d
Will Team Liquid win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL No 100¢ $10 17d
Will Team Liquid win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY No 100¢ $10 17d
Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL No 100¢ $10 18d
Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 100¢ $10 18d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY No 99¢ $10 18d
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $10 19d
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $10 19d
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $14 22d
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $10 22d
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $10 22d
Athletics vs. Los Angeles Angels BUY Los Angeles Angels 50¢ $6 24d
Will Amir Ohana be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 100¢ $10 25d
Will Amir Ohana be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $10 25d
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $10 26d
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $10 26d
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $37 26d
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $37 26d
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $39 27d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-20.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 17 -11.9% -20.3% 6% 0% -14.8%
≤90d 44 -15.8% -23.8% 16% 9% -16.9%
all 56 -12.3% -20.7% 20% 7% -10.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.7% 7% -10.1%
10% -28.3% 7% -18.7%
15% -35.2% 7% -26.6%
20% -41.6% 7% -33.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $9.58 · official $9.58 (match) · 228 history records