Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T14:22:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D2 0xd249…10da world 87 markets active 11h ago coverage 48d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$1,208 (+6%) realized +$799 · open +$409
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR15%break-even
Win rate55%40W / 33L
Whale WR83%big bets
Drawdown7%max
Avg bet$237per market
Trades / day9.7pace
Kalshi-fit87%portable
Net worth$5,245now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$223
7 days+$433
14 days+$500
30 days+$663
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 45% +$509
politics 45% +$501
crypto 5% +$10
other 4% +$45
finance 1% +$3
tech 0% −$3
weather 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +15%
net ROI/market (all)-11.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 -8.1% -16.9% 57% 29% -2.8%
≤30d 52 -0.4% -9.9% 62% 15% -4.5%
≤90d 73 -1.8% -11.1% 55% 15% -5.0%
all 73 -1.8% -11.1% 55% 15% -5.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.1% 15% -5.0%
10% -19.6% 4% -14.1%
15% -27.4% 1% -22.4%
20% -34.5% 1% -30.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 46% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
72% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +5% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 83% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -2% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$22 vs −$7 · ×3.03 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.9 per $1 lost it wins $3.9
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

48d coverage
Net worth$5,245
Realized+$799
Unrealized+$409
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses40 / 33
Whale WR (big bets)83%
Open positions14
Markets (closed)73 / 87
History coverage48d
Avg bet$237
Trades / day9.7
Drawdown7%
Kalshi-fit87%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 14 History 73 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $567 −$3 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 18 $2,072 +$219 +11%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 18 $106 +$14 +14%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 17 $52 −$7 -13%
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 Jun 17 $102 −$18 -18%
Iran coup attempt by June 30? Jun 17 $287 +$17 +6%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 14 $444 +$55 +12%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $106 −$6 -5%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $31 −$31 -100%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? Jun 13 $43 +$3 +7%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? Jun 12 $27 +$3 +12%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $4T? Jun 12 $37 $0 +0%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? Jun 12 $12 −$6 -49%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Jun 12 $1,966 +$192 +10%
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $133 +$13 +10%
Will Trump pardon Sam Bankman-Fried before 2027? Jun 08 $253 +$10 +4%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 08 $205 +$6 +3%
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 07 $95 −$1 -1%
Will Nithya Raman finish second in the first round of the 2026 Los Ang Jun 06 $120 +$2 +2%
Will Karen Bass & Nithya Raman advance to the second round of the 2026 Jun 06 $120 +$3 +3%
Iran closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 05 $101 −$1 -1%
Will Mette Frederiksen be the next prime minister of Denmark after the Jun 04 $96 +$29 +30%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 04 $895 +$6 +1%
Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 03 $31 +$9 +29%
Will Steve Hilton finish first in the 2026 California Governor primary Jun 03 $208 $0 +0%
Will Xavier Becerra finish first in the 2026 California Governor prima Jun 03 $48 $0 -0%
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Jun 03 $247 +$24 +10%
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? Jun 02 $64 +$5 +8%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Jun 02 $266 +$2 +1%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 02 $48 +$1 +3%
Starmer out by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $33 +$2 +7%
Iran leadership change by May 31? Jun 01 $52 +$4 +8%
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 01 $45 −$9 -20%
Netanyahu out by end of 2026? May 31 $12 −$2 -14%
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by May 31? May 31 $317 +$8 +2%
Will Janez Janša be the next Prime Minister of Slovenia? May 31 $769 +$46 +6%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 29 $50 −$11 -22%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 29? May 29 $125 +$27 +21%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? May 29 $550 +$33 +6%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? May 29 $101 $0 +0%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31? May 28 $49 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in May? May 28 $34 −$6 -16%
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026? May 27 $21 −$1 -5%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 27 $93 −$36 -39%
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in May? May 27 $168 +$10 +6%
Will Spencer Pratt finish first in the first round of the 2026 Los Ang May 27 $42 $0 -1%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? May 27 $78 +$2 +2%
Iran closes its airspace by May 21? May 25 $181 +$18 +10%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 21 $50 −$11 -22%
Iran closes its airspace by May 24? May 21 $85 +$4 +5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Rebecca Shepherd win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? BUY No 100¢ $50 10h
Will Rebecca Shepherd finish second in the 2026 Makerfield by-election SELL No 99¢ $50 10h
Will Rebecca Shepherd win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? BUY No 100¢ $60 11h
Will Rebecca Shepherd finish second in the 2026 Makerfield by-election SELL No 99¢ $60 11h
Will Rebecca Shepherd win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? BUY No 100¢ $66 11h
Will Rebecca Shepherd finish second in the 2026 Makerfield by-election SELL No 99¢ $65 12h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 100¢ $48 18h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL Yes 41¢ $45 18h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 100¢ $240 18h
Ex-Cuba leader Raul Castro in US custody by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $48 18h
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 SELL Yes 56¢ $84 18h
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? BUY No 93¢ $22 23h
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? BUY No 93¢ $13 23h
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? BUY No 93¢ $16 23h
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? BUY No 93¢ $4 23h
Ex-Cuba leader Raul Castro in US custody by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $51 23h
Ex-Cuba leader Raul Castro in US custody by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $96 23h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $58 24h
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 20 BUY No 72¢ $50 26h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 47¢ $52 27h
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? BUY Yes 88¢ $106 27h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $39 31h
Iran coup attempt by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $89 34h
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 BUY Yes 68¢ $102 36h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $160 37h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 100¢ $299 37h
Will Rebecca Shepherd finish second in the 2026 Makerfield by-election BUY No 96¢ $96 40h
Will Rebecca Shepherd finish second in the 2026 Makerfield by-election BUY No 96¢ $96 40h
Will Rebecca Shepherd finish second in the 2026 Makerfield by-election BUY No 96¢ $29 40h
Iran coup attempt by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $88 41h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5,244.94 · official $5,244.94 (match) · 502 history records