Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T23:34:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
D2 0xd24b…ef76 politics 63 markets active 0h ago coverage 52d
RISKYcopy with care politics specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
! high turnover
Total PnL +$28,769 (+20%) realized +$19,314 · open +$9,455
Gross ROI / mkt +47% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +9% what you keep after slip
Net edge+9%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate55%27W / 22L
Whale WR85%big bets
Drawdown14%max
Avg bet$2,270per market
Trades / day25.1pace
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$38,289now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$6,403
14 days+$8,021
30 days+$14,627
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 90% +$21,444
other 5% +$2,696
world 4% +$2,030
economics 0% −$360
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)+33.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +76.3% +59.5% 83% 67% +18.3%
≤30d 29 +101.3% +82.1% 69% 62% +17.5%
≤90d 49 +47.4% +33.4% 55% 45% +14.3%
all 49 +47.4% +33.4% 55% 45% +14.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover25.1 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +33.4% 45% +14.3%
10% +20.6% 39% +3.4%
15% ← realistic here +8.9% 27% -6.6%
20% -1.7% 22% -15.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 30% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +28% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
19% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +47% · $-wt +28% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 85% (≥$1,214) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -11% → late +104% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
14.0 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$775 vs −$208 · ×3.72 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×4.57 per $1 lost it wins $4.57
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

52d coverage
Net worth$38,289
Realized+$19,314
Unrealized+$9,455
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses27 / 22
Whale WR (big bets)85%
Open positions14
Markets (closed)49 / 63
History coverage52d
Avg bet$2,270
Trades / day25.1
Drawdown14%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 14 History 49 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 78¢ 99¢ $9,190 $11,554 +$2,364 (+26%)
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? No 86¢ 99¢ $6,773 $7,783 +$1,011 (+15%)
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? Yes 44¢ 84¢ $2,970 $5,684 +$2,714 (+91%)
Will Iván Cepeda Castro place 1st in Bogotá in the second round of the 2026 Colombia presidential election? Yes 53¢ 94¢ $3,175 $5,670 +$2,495 (+79%)
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? No 78¢ 99¢ $3,134 $3,964 +$830 (+26%)
Will Abelardo de la Espriella place 1st in Bogotá in the second round of the 2026 Colombia presidential election? No 57¢ 94¢ $860 $1,417 +$557 (+65%)
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the second round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election by 10-15%? No 90¢ 98¢ $1,003 $1,096 +$93 (+9%)
Starmer out by July 31, 2026? Yes 73¢ 96¢ $531 $699 +$168 (+32%)
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the second round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election by 5-10%? No 81¢ 94¢ $268 $312 +$44 (+16%)
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Yes $78 $59 −$19 (-25%)
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? No 15¢ $152 $30 −$121 (-80%)
Starmer out by June 26, 2026? Yes 28¢ 84¢ $5 $14 +$9 (+198%)
Will Tom Steyer win the California Governor Election in 2026? Yes 18¢ $621 $5 −$616 (-99%)
Will Paloma Valencia win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Yes $75 $0 −$75 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 12 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Nirav Shah win the 2026 Maine Governor Democratic primary electio Jun 19 $378 +$368 +98%
Will Hannah Pingree win the 2026 Maine Governor Democratic primary ele Jun 19 $29 +$114 +389%
Makerfield by-election: Restore Britain receives 10%+? Jun 19 $6,382 +$2,169 +34%
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? Jun 19 $11,979 +$3,734 +31%
Will Rebecca Shepherd win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? Jun 19 $1,967 +$92 +5%
Will Shenna Bellows win the 2026 Maine Governor Democratic primary ele Jun 15 $78 −$74 -95%
Will Troy Jackson win the 2026 Maine Governor Democratic primary elect Jun 09 $136 −$133 -97%
Will Karen Bass & Nithya Raman advance to the second round of the 2026 Jun 09 $3,746 +$1,711 +46%
Will Giovanni Nappi win the 2026 Casalnuovo Di Napoli mayoral election Jun 08 $8 +$14 +171%
Will Nicoletta Romano win the 2026 Casalnuovo Di Napoli mayoral electi Jun 08 $15 +$26 +173%
Will Tom Steyer advance from the 2026 California Governor primary elec Jun 06 $1,308 −$708 -54%
Will Steve Hilton advance from the 2026 California Governor primary el Jun 06 $1,228 −$1,129 -92%
Will both candidates advancing to the general election for Governor of Jun 05 $379 −$379 -100%
Will Chong Won-oh win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election by between 6% an Jun 05 $130 +$70 +54%
Will Chong Won-oh win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election by 9% or more? Jun 05 $138 +$62 +44%
Will Oh Se-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Jun 04 $2,631 +$625 +24%
Will Park Wan-soo win the 2026 Gyeongsangnam Province Gubernatorial El Jun 04 $6,326 +$2,030 +32%
Will Chong Won-oh win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Jun 03 $1,931 +$1,719 +89%
Will Choo Kyung-ho win the 2026 Daegu mayoral election? Jun 03 $374 +$109 +29%
Will Kim Boo-kyum win the 2026 Daegu mayoral election? Jun 03 $2,150 +$1,382 +64%
Will Park Heong-joon win the 2026 Busan Mayoral Election? Jun 03 $359 −$221 -62%
Will voter turnout be at least 65% in the 2026 Seoul mayoral election? Jun 03 $29 −$29 -97%
Will any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the Jun 02 $3,239 −$86 -3%
Will Kim Kyung-soo win the 2026 Gyeongsangnam Province Gubernatorial E Jun 01 $20 $0 +0%
Will Kim Sang-wook win the 2026 Ulsan mayoral election? Jun 01 $647 +$179 +28%
Will Chun Jae-soo win the 2026 Busan Mayoral Election? Jun 01 $756 +$84 +11%
Will Iván Cepeda Castro win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian presid May 31 $259 +$819 +317%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian May 31 $2,417 +$2,193 +91%
Will Ken Paxton win the Texas Republican Senate Primary runoff by 9% o May 26 $247 −$114 -46%
Will Ed Gallrein be the Republican nominee for KY-04? May 20 $3,591 +$2,498 +70%
Will Thomas Massie be the Republican nominee for KY-04? May 20 $565 +$435 +77%
Will John Cornyn win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary? May 19 $654 +$11 +2%
Will Ken Paxton win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary? May 19 $1,824 +$326 +18%
Will the Labour Party win the second-most council seat elections in th May 11 $343 +$44 +13%
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 15, 2026? May 10 $364 −$360 -99%
Will Plaid Cymru win the most seats in the 2026 Welsh Senedd election? May 09 $573 +$37 +6%
Will Reform UK win the most seats in the 2026 Welsh Senedd election? May 09 $1,214 +$86 +7%
Will the Green Party win control of the most London borough councils? May 08 $110 −$94 -86%
Will the Labour Party win at least 400 council seat elections in the 2 May 08 $72 −$62 -86%
Will the Labour Party win at least 300 council seat elections in the 2 May 08 $38 −$29 -78%
Will the Labour Party win control of the most London borough councils? May 08 $120 −$101 -84%
Will the Labour Party win at least 700 council seat elections in the 2 May 07 $1,121 −$74 -7%
Will Reform UK win at least 1600 council seat elections in the 2026 Un May 07 $1,022 −$135 -13%
Will the Conservative Party win at least 500 council seat elections in May 07 $360 −$352 -98%
Will Reform UK win at least 1800 council seat elections in the 2026 Un May 07 $151 −$47 -31%
Will the Green Party win at least 700 council seat elections in the 20 May 07 $110 −$1 -1%
Will the Labour Party win at least 600 council seat elections in the 2 May 07 $121 −$6 -5%
Will the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) win the most seats in the 2026 W May 04 $369 −$328 -89%
Will the All India Trinamool Congress (AITC) win the most seats in the May 04 $128 −$116 -91%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? SELL Yes $20 29m
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? SELL Yes $26 30m
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? SELL Yes $7 41m
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? SELL Yes $34 41m
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? BUY Yes $104 52m
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? SELL Yes $12 1h
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the second round of the 2026 Colombi BUY No 83¢ $25 1h
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the second round of the 2026 Colombi BUY No 81¢ $82 1h
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the second round of the 2026 Colombi BUY No 81¢ $163 1h
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the second round of the 2026 Colombi BUY No 90¢ $257 2h
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the second round of the 2026 Colombi BUY No 90¢ $3 2h
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the second round of the 2026 Colombi BUY No 90¢ $90 2h
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? BUY Yes $25 2h
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the second round of the 2026 Colombi BUY No 90¢ $9 2h
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the second round of the 2026 Colombi BUY No 90¢ $188 3h
Will Iván Cepeda Castro place 1st in Bogotá in the second round of the BUY Yes 61¢ $148 4h
Will Iván Cepeda Castro place 1st in Bogotá in the second round of the BUY Yes 61¢ $42 4h
Will Iván Cepeda Castro place 1st in Bogotá in the second round of the BUY Yes 61¢ $115 4h
Will Abelardo de la Espriella place 1st in Bogotá in the second round BUY No 60¢ $300 4h
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? BUY Yes 20¢ $100 4h
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the second round of the 2026 Colombi BUY No 91¢ $103 4h
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the second round of the 2026 Colombi BUY No 90¢ $9 4h
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the second round of the 2026 Colombi BUY No 90¢ $270 4h
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele BUY No 16¢ $2 5h
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele BUY No 16¢ $7 5h
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele BUY No 16¢ $0 5h
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele BUY No 16¢ $21 5h
Will Iván Cepeda Castro place 1st in Bogotá in the second round of the BUY Yes 59¢ $300 5h
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the second round of the 2026 Colombi BUY No 90¢ $74 5h
Will Iván Cepeda Castro place 1st in Bogotá in the second round of the BUY Yes 57¢ $290 5h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $38,288.89 · official $37,599.40 · 1401 history records